December 2019 Observations & Discussion

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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 03, 2019 12:13 pm

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Snow1

December 2019 Observations & Discussion December-1-2nd-call

December started a whole 3 days ago but we were so focused on tracking yesterday's storm we never started a thread. I'll start by doing a quick "storm in review" that shows how the forecast went. I think the map turned out to be a pretty good one considering the volatility models were showing leading up to the event. Ultimately I settled on using a blend of the RGEM/NAM because I felt they handled 500mb ULL best. Don't get me wrong, these 2 models did very poorly the night before and day of the storm, but were pretty good 48+ hours out from the event.

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Nov19TDeptNRCC

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Yhw_UsUFm8

Not sure if anyone brought this up, but November finished top 10 (maybe 5) coldest on record for NYC. It really was cold. The tropical forcing coupled with +AAM at times lead to an anomalous ridge just off the WC of the U.S. The -EPO/+PNA along with a -NAO with ridging pressing down from Greenland kept temps well below normal along the EC. Its no surprise we saw our first significant snowfall of the season. Honestly I am surprised this pattern did not deliver at least one other snow event, but the western ridging is displaced a little too far west.



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Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:08 pm

Some of these lake effect snow bands will reach N&W sections of our area on Wednesday

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Namconus_ref_frzn_neus_36

Also, some models show a weak snow squall coming thru parts of CNJ/SNJ on Wednesday morning.

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 03, 2019 1:50 pm

It's still only Fall and we have had one of the coldest Novembers and now an early snowfall.Let's hope this portends a pattern that continues cold and snowy,even with the obligatory "January thaw".
In Fort Lee NJ, clear blue skies, calm winds in the 30's.
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Post by algae888 on Tue Dec 03, 2019 2:08 pm

Frank the pattern that we've been in since the beginning of November if it continues we will have an awesome winter. What I'm hearing is that there's an open body of water that usually iced over by now somewhere Northwest of Alaska. It's in the EPO region and it's assisting with ridging / high pressure which eventually delivers the cold to us and also helps with the pack with wave breaking so that we're not flooded with Pacific air
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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 03, 2019 5:15 pm

That is true Al wull.post a map when I get home.
Part of what I was going to put in LR.
Anyway 35* for my high, they had me at 38*
Snow doing its work here.

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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 03, 2019 9:06 pm

Watch the shortwave this Friday need a tick further South and more snow shower can be had by most of N&W posters even possibly down to the NYC Metro

December 2019 Observations & Discussion 5de6fa76be558.png.c9878d11056d87822ad895b2bd7a4d1a

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Dec 04, 2019 4:15 am

Frank_Wx wrote:December 2019 Observations & Discussion Snow1

December 2019 Observations & Discussion December-1-2nd-call

December started a whole 3 days ago but we were so focused on tracking yesterday's storm we never started a thread. I'll start by doing a quick "storm in review" that shows how the forecast went. I think the map turned out to be a pretty good one considering the volatility models were showing leading up to the event. Ultimately I settled on using a blend of the RGEM/NAM because I felt they handled 500mb ULL best. Don't get me wrong, these 2 models did very poorly the night before and day of the storm, but were pretty good 48+ hours out from the event.

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Nov19TDeptNRCC

December 2019 Observations & Discussion Yhw_UsUFm8

Not sure if anyone brought this up, but November finished top 10 (maybe 5) coldest on record for NYC. It really was cold. The tropical forcing coupled with +AAM at times lead to an anomalous ridge just off the WC of the U.S. The -EPO/+PNA along with a -NAO with ridging pressing down from Greenland kept temps well below normal along the EC. Its no surprise we saw our first significant snowfall of the season. Honestly I am surprised this pattern did not deliver at least one other snow event, but the western ridging is displaced a little too far west.



Great write up, but November although being almost 4 degrees below normal in NYC did not finish anywhere near the top 10 coldest Novembers of all time it was actually tied for 32nd coldest of all time . Now out of 150 Novembers that isn't bad but it was nowhere near the top 10, as some places had written.
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 6:33 am

CP, great data which does relegate this past November to cold-er not among the cold-est.
It was a nice lead in to the early December snowstorm.Lee Goldberg mentioned snow showers for our area Friday which may leave a minor accumulation.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:11 am

Nice coating of snow this morning. 32 degrees. Already much better December than last year.

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Post by jmanley32 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 7:20 am

Tiny bit of flurries this morning. About 36. Have a nice day all. When's the next storm chance?
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Post by billg315 on Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:13 am

32* and just had about 2 hours of light snow wrapping up as flurries now. Coated cars and colder surfaces.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:31 am

33* with flurries...nice....and also nice to see snow on everyone's lawns...that did not happen last year.. Very Happy
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:14 am

30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.
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Post by amugs on Wed Dec 04, 2019 11:05 am

4 straight days to start of December with snow - A DECEMBER TO REMEMBER INCOMING!!!!!!!!!!

December 2019 Observations & Discussion 20191204_070647.thumb.jpg.22d028e7ea2f167006426c0cb1bf2086

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Post by HectorO on Wed Dec 04, 2019 8:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

Not hard to believe. I like looking at it, but dark gloomy skies can get depressing especially when you grew up in a state where it's sunny and has beautiful beaches
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Post by moleson on Wed Dec 04, 2019 10:22 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

You should move to Rochester NY. Gray skies and snow for 5 months out of the year. Trust me. It gets old.
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Post by docstox12 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 5:22 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

33 degrees.
Was in Fort Lee NJ Tuesday and Wednesday , maybe 2 inches on the ground.Elevation matters because I went down to Edgewater NJ, a few hundred feet below Fort Lee, and there was maybe an inch OTG.As I was driving home into Sloatsburg NY, you could see the snow amounts going up.Got back to Monroe NY at 8 30 PM to light flurries and a winter wonderland.Looks like early February not December.Some light snow possible for tomorrow.
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Post by billg315 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:14 am

Yesterday evening's light rain showers and mist froze on my car early this morning. Nice coat of ice to scrape off the windows. A little alcohol/water mixture in a spray bottle does wonders though.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Thu Dec 05, 2019 9:45 am

moleson wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

You should move to Rochester NY. Gray skies and snow for 5 months out of the year. Trust me. It gets old.

I've been through several winters like that here, and never found them depressing. Of course if it was every year, year after year like Rochester who knows, my thought process might change.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 10:22 am

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:30.5°, dark gray skies, intermittent flurries, trees still encased in white and a foot of snow on the ground. Pretty much paradise, or my version of heaven.

It's hard to believe people get depressed by weather like this. If it were sunny and 50° with no snow anywhere in sight, now that's depressing.

33 degrees.
Was in Fort Lee NJ Tuesday and Wednesday , maybe 2 inches on the ground.Elevation matters because I went down to Edgewater NJ, a few hundred feet below Fort Lee, and there was maybe an inch OTG.As I was driving home into Sloatsburg NY, you could see the snow amounts going up.Got back to Monroe NY at 8 30 PM to light flurries and a winter wonderland.Looks like early February not December.Some light snow possible for tomorrow.

Elevation is definitely critical in marginal temperature profiles. I have had several instances where Doylestown, PA @ 275' (13 miles away south of me) is heavy rain and MBY @ 600' is heavy snow. That 1.5 degrees can make the difference. But i probably need to be up about 3 thousand feet to give me the kind of snow I'd want. Maybe I'll work on building a mound.

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Post by docstox12 on Thu Dec 05, 2019 1:43 pm

37 degrees and flurries.
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Post by Vinnydula on Thu Dec 05, 2019 3:23 pm

38 heavy snow shower
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Post by dkodgis on Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:38 pm

It was flurrying here today off and on. Pretty.

It is 36. I can't fire the stove with this temp because the house gets too hot. The wind picked up at 28ish mph about an hour ago. Now down to about 12 mph.

Here's a hoot. I walked out to get the mail and I saw a plastic bag end sticking out of the snow. Not knowing what it was, I pulled it out. It was a UPS delivery from who knows when...maybe Monday...in a bag on the other side of the road next to the mail box. Enough snow had melted for me to see it. I felt like Indiana Jones finding the Well of Souls.
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Post by amugs on Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:53 pm

Snow shower at 3 and then flurries at 4. My Nemo LOL

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Post by Grselig on Thu Dec 05, 2019 4:54 pm

yeah nice surprise heavy fluries at about 4 today.
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