December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:32 pm

What happened to the deep cold and high ratio snows we were talking bout a day ago or so? Crazy how this changes. Oh well I guess I'll plan on go school and maybe get a surprise.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:33 pm

It is 55 here I don't see how it's go be below 32 by 2 or 3 am. Way to warm. This may end up being a all rain event too.
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:34 pm

I think if your are on Suffolk County LI, then you are at risk for 3"+. Possibly even Jersey shore, but temps make that tougher. The rest of us probably not a big deal...

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:46 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I think if your are on Suffolk County LI, then you are at risk for 3"+.  Possibly even Jersey shore, but temps make that tougher.  The rest of us probably not a big deal...
How does long Island jackpot and not other coastal areas?
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:47 pm

Wow GFS 0.1 inches snow, jeeze. Wow HRDPS has nothing either, little to no precip, total bummer. Raining for most 1-2am, yeah I think no one is going to see snow at this pt. If I was NWS I would drop the WWA.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 4:57 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Wow GFS 0.1 inches snow, jeeze. Wow HRDPS has nothing either, little to no precip, total bummer. Raining for most 1-2am, yeah I think no one is going to see snow at this pt.  If I was NWS I would drop the WWA.

Jon. Look back at your last 6 or 7 posts and say them out loud to yourself. Then go take a break. The cookie is going to crumble where it’s going to crumble. Wake up tomorrow and be happy that your breathing. Any white stuff falling from the sky take as icing on the cake.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:00 pm

This is the GFS snow map by the way Jon. Every model has an axis of heavy precip every model is a tad further north or south with it. This means that we really won’t know exactly where it sets up until it sets up. One of the models might have it correct but with such variations who know which one. Just take it easy.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 5 282cf110

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow GFS 0.1 inches snow, jeeze. Wow HRDPS has nothing either, little to no precip, total bummer. Raining for most 1-2am, yeah I think no one is going to see snow at this pt.  If I was NWS I would drop the WWA.

Jon.  Look back at your last 6 or 7 posts and say them out loud to yourself. Then go take a break. The cookie is going to crumble where it’s going to crumble. Wake up tomorrow and be happy that your breathing. Any white stuff falling from the sky take as icing on the cake.
Annoyed you said that but point taken I dont need to read them its all waa waa I know okay! I am just frustrated, things never seem to go good here. On a positive note I am wrong it appears though it looks like rgem has no precip heavy bands build in behind the initial precip, that band over LI is crazy, wishing it could be here its ever so close but it is what it is I guess as my wife says.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:06 pm

@sroc4 wrote:This is the GFS snow map by the way Jon. Every model has an axis of heavy precip  every model is a tad further north or south with it. This means that we really won’t know exactly where it sets up until it sets up. One of the models might have it correct but with such variations who know which one. Just take it easy.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 5 282cf110
Thats very different than the tropical tidbits one. Another issue is everyone at work begging me to give them good news that we will have a delay at least, if I am not right i get crap from 30 women all day LOL, but its not too funny actually.
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Post by aiannone on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:07 pm

18z Hrdps
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 5 30c31b10
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:30 pm

You see the same things on these models. There seems to be a western edge and eastern edge, albeit, not as extreme as the HRDPS shows. I guess they are trying to tell us subsidence in the middle. Should be interesting. My over/under is 1".

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:31 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Wow GFS 0.1 inches snow, jeeze. Wow HRDPS has nothing either, little to no precip, total bummer. Raining for most 1-2am, yeah I think no one is going to see snow at this pt.  If I was NWS I would drop the WWA.

Jon.  Look back at your last 6 or 7 posts and say them out loud to yourself. Then go take a break. The cookie is going to crumble where it’s going to crumble. Wake up tomorrow and be happy that your breathing. Any white stuff falling from the sky take as icing on the cake.
Annoyed you said that but point taken I dont need to read them its all waa waa I know okay! I am just frustrated, things never seem to go good here.  On  a positive note I am wrong it appears though it looks like rgem has no precip heavy bands build in behind the initial precip, that band over LI is crazy, wishing it could be here its ever so close but it is what it is I guess as my wife says.

Sorry man. Didn’t mean to be so blunt but really you should skim through your last several posts. Everything your looking at is a model. Reality might be totally different. Even for areas where the heaviest axis appears on the models. Everyone could get oogatz don’t sweat the models. We are in now cast mode chips will fall when the fall. Last storm I sat quietly with my temp hovering at 33-34 and rain with a stiff north wind and no HP to the north to dip me under 32. It was what it was

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:I know accuwx isn't great but it shows 1 HR of snow 8 to 9am. Is it really going to be 1 HR of snow? Won't even be able stick at all that short.
Lee G said several hours of snow...over night the snow should start for north and west around 9 pm...good luck tonight Very Happy .
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Post by docstox12 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 5:43 pm

Doc is right, nowcast time.Models suggesting shore and LI do well but I can still squeeze out a few inches.Anyway, winter returns tomorrow.Best of luck all!
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:04 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:I know accuwx isn't great but it shows 1 HR of snow 8 to 9am. Is it really going to be 1 HR of snow? Won't even be able stick at all that short.
Lee G said several hours of snow...over night the snow should start for north and west around 9 pm...good luck tonight Very Happy .
we will see. Fingers crossed. Right now still 54 here lol
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Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:05 pm

54 and the cold wind is starting to pick up
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:41 pm

Front has passed south and east of me. 41 and light rain.
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Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:44 pm

@Scullybutcher wrote:54 and the cold wind is starting to pick up

Bob-O!!!! Scull-O!!! Whats up brother? I hope your well. Sorry Ill take it to banter.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by aiannone on Tue Dec 10, 2019 6:49 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@Scullybutcher wrote:54 and the cold wind is starting to pick up

Bob-O!!!!  Scull-O!!!  Whats up brother?  I hope your well.  Sorry Ill take it to banter.

My fellow Smithtown friend haha!
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Post by Irish on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:32 pm

Sroc, I've been part of this forum for about a year and have noticed and commented on Jman's activity. It's the same behavior for every single storm watch thread. Over excitement for blown out model predictions, then agitation when models change or don't play out optimally for his area and all the while complaining about whether or not he'll have to be in school. It's rough. Every time i see his name pop up, i already know what the content will be.

Just trying to help you see it Jman, not meaning to be a jerk, just tough to read as it detracts from threads at times.

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:39 pm

@Irish wrote:Sroc, I've been part of this forum for about a year and have noticed and commented on Jman's activity. It's the same behavior for every single storm watch thread. Over excitement for blown out model predictions, then agitation when models change or don't play out optimally for his area and all the while complaining about whether or not he'll have to be in school.  It's rough.  Every time i see his name pop up, i already know what the content will be.

Just trying to help you see it Jman, not meaning to be a jerk, just tough to read as it detracts from threads at times.
True enough, I have been under a lot of stress, its not even usually the weather, and the work part no I am hoping for snow days, but if I gotta go to work of course I will. And I like my job. I used to contribute better posting lots of model images and even a synopsis once on wind event that got me props from Frank. So let me keep my complaints in banter and I will try to contribute more relevent info here and in observations. It is really hard to get burned every time though, and the past 2 years jhave just stunk so bad LOL, if you met me you would know I am a lot cooler in person. Scott can attest to that we met...I hope he can anyways LOL
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 7:54 pm

850's crashing quickly.  Good luck to all!

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Post by skinsfan1177 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:02 pm

Radar looks juiced up to me
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:03 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:850's crashing quickly.  Good luck to all!

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 5 85010
WOW! Dropped 4 degrees here so far, Down to 51 from 55. Still a long ways to go but its a step in the right direction.
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Post by Irish on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:17 pm

Sounds good Jman, you seem like a good dude and yes, i can definitely feel your frustration. All good though, let's get to some winter weather!

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