December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

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Post by Grselig on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:18 pm

I'm down to 48°. NWS how me down for less than one inch. Yeah, disappointed that a few days ago expected an accumulation.
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:33 pm

@Irish wrote:Sounds good Jman, you seem like a good dude and yes, i can definitely feel your frustration. All good though, let's get to some winter weather!
I posted my real thoughts in banter if you wanna know a bit more about my weather situation and what I do for work that permits for snow days.


Last edited by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:10 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:34 pm

38 and rain.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:36 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:Sroc, I've been part of this forum for about a year and have noticed and commented on Jman's activity. It's the same behavior for every single storm watch thread. Over excitement for blown out model predictions, then agitation when models change or don't play out optimally for his area and all the while complaining about whether or not he'll have to be in school.  It's rough.  Every time i see his name pop up, i already know what the content will be.

Just trying to help you see it Jman, not meaning to be a jerk, just tough to read as it detracts from threads at times.
True enough, I have been under a lot of stress, its not even usually the weather, and the work part no I am hoping for snow days, but if I gotta go to work of course I will. And I like my job.  I used to contribute better posting lots of model images and even a synopsis once on  wind event that got me props from Frank. So let me keep my complaints in banter and I will try to contribute more relevent info here and in observations. It is really hard to get burned every time though, and the past 2 years jhave just stunk so bad LOL, if you met me you would know I am a lot cooler in person. Scott can attest to that we met...I hope he can anyways LOL

We all Love a big snow storm, I always try to hike up from my house in Stillwater to the top of the mountain to the Appalachian Trail at 1600 ft altitude to get pictures, this last storm started with rain at 24 degrees , everything got coated in a half inch of ice, then it snowed 9 inches and we lost power up here on Sunday afternoon and did not get it back till Friday night, I am glad I have a generator! These are some pictures I took at the top of the mountain December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 29d2ad10
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the next day, 12 inches of snow and beautiful! JMan , you seem like a good guy but I also picked up on the Mr Tissues weeping about being disappointed about snow totals and will school be closed or will we have a delay, you are probably just a Highschool student hoping for a day off, I hope you are not a teacher hoping to miss school, young men and women need Strong Leaders to Shape  them and Lead them and instill a Great Work Ethic. Hopefully I can post these pictures, GOOD LUCK AND LET IT SNOW !
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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 8:50 pm

@1190ftalt wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@Irish wrote:Sroc, I've been part of this forum for about a year and have noticed and commented on Jman's activity. It's the same behavior for every single storm watch thread. Over excitement for blown out model predictions, then agitation when models change or don't play out optimally for his area and all the while complaining about whether or not he'll have to be in school.  It's rough.  Every time i see his name pop up, i already know what the content will be.

Just trying to help you see it Jman, not meaning to be a jerk, just tough to read as it detracts from threads at times.
True enough, I have been under a lot of stress, its not even usually the weather, and the work part no I am hoping for snow days, but if I gotta go to work of course I will. And I like my job.  I used to contribute better posting lots of model images and even a synopsis once on  wind event that got me props from Frank. So let me keep my complaints in banter and I will try to contribute more relevent info here and in observations. It is really hard to get burned every time though, and the past 2 years jhave just stunk so bad LOL, if you met me you would know I am a lot cooler in person. Scott can attest to that we met...I hope he can anyways LOL

We all Love a big snow storm, I always try to hike up from my house in Stillwater to the top of the mountain to the Appalachian Trail at 1600 ft altitude to get pictures, this last storm started with rain at 24 degrees , everything got coated in a half inch of ice, then it snowed 9 inches and we lost power up here on Sunday afternoon and did not get it back till Friday night, I am glad I have a generator! These are some pictures I took at the top of the mountain December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 29d2ad10
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 9807c510
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 838b0910
the next day, 12 inches of snow and beautiful! JMan , you seem like a good guy but I also picked up on the Mr Tissues weeping about being disappointed about snow totals and will school be closed or will we have a delay, you are probably just a Highschool student hoping for a day off, I hope you are not a teacher hoping to miss school, young men and women need Strong Leaders to Shape  them and Lead them and instill a Great Work Ethic. Hopefully I can post these pictures, GOOD LUCK AND LET IT SNOW !
do you see my age? No I am not a kid and I am offended you would say that . I work very hard look at banter. I work the summers and get far less breaks we all at my jib hope for snow bays so ur also telling 30+ women they are kids...good luck with that! This was banter on you btw. So sorry to all that had to read this.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:06 pm

It is snowing lightly in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, it is 38 degrees and dropping, Snow is Good !
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Post by Scullybutcher on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:09 pm

Now back to our regularly scheduled programming

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 F41efd10
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:13 pm

Column is cooling rapidly.  40 rain/snow mix.

850's

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 85011

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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:42 pm

Snowing very heavy in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, big snow flakes just starting to stick to car tops and tops of outdoor grills ( anything metal ) not sticking to roads or grass, LET IT SNOW!
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:49 pm

44° and dropping pretty steadily. Only expecting an inch or 2.

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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 10, 2019 9:56 pm

Temps are crashing as Hee haw posted 850's have crashed waiting on 925's which aren't far behind.
Some surprises in store IMO - 2-4" area wide as teh model have gone back to this.
The energy is out in front of teh boundary which means will may see some overpercformance in the NW areas once they switch to all snow which should be shortly by 11-12Am from west to east.
850's are done they crashed
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 6853C75E-299C-45EE-AED9-D8C4B61A0E7C.gif.63163fcc9c7befbced5d93a687364425

925 need the blue line sto swing east
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 FD012620-BD80-4A06-BFA2-94BEBC87C68F.gif.f07e8463ac1d77be07becf151a4c3aae

Radar - much more precip (not like 4-6" but an inch to 2 more) on this radar that is showing on models

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 Northeast_loop

DO's for some schools in NNJ, LHV, HV and CT likely.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:00 pm

38.3°

Come on surface temps drop faster
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Post by aiannone on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:03 pm

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 29892110
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Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:11 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:38.3°

Come on surface temps drop faster

Its coming CP, its coming. 38 here with rain and a little snow mixed in.
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:16 pm

All Snow in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude, sticking to cars and I got out my Micrometer and measured 1/4 inch on top of outdoor Gas grill, down to 34 degrees, not sticking to roads but starting to stick to grass. Just saw on weather channel this storm will stall over Westwood NJ and Yonkers NY and add to there totals, Let it Snow !December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 19b07e10
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Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:19 pm

Snowing. 37. Radar looks decent

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Post by aiannone on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:22 pm

Temp down to 43 here in St James on LI. Falling rapidly
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Post by 1190ftalt on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:37 pm

Snowing real hard and big snowflakes in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude,car covered ,grass covered and now sticking to roads and sidewalks, temperature is now down to 32.38592 degrees, a very heavy wet snow, hard to believe it is sticking to the roads with the warm temperatures and the last 2 days of rain. Apparently This storm will stall over Westwood NJ and Yonkers NY , Good Luck !December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 6fe19810
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:37 pm

Temps are coming down we have some strong winds (20+)right now you can feel the cold front coming thru!! My son is a freshman in high school and on days of possible snow the pjs go inside out and ice cubes in the toilet..I love when he acts like a kid!! Very Happy Very Happy Come on cold!! Come on snow!!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:39 pm

@1190ftalt wrote:Snowing real hard and big snowflakes in Stillwater NJ at 1190 feet altitude,car covered ,grass covered and now sticking to roads and sidewalks, temperature is now down to 32.38592 degrees, a very heavy wet snow, hard to believe it is sticking to the roads with the warm temperatures and the last 2 days of rain. Apparently This storm will stall over Westwood NJ and Yonkers NY , Good Luck !December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 6fe19810
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location location location....lol enjoy and keep posting pictures they said it would start up there by 9 or 10 tonight
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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:54 pm

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 6 3B5A208E-9A78-4A3E-B760-681E09026FB9.png.400603985d56f8db989b9a717197038d

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Post by amugs on Tue Dec 10, 2019 10:54 pm

2-3 hrs ahead of schedule the rain snow line. Gonna be some surprises peeps.
Woop woop!!

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:13 pm

@amugs wrote:2-3 hrs ahead of schedule the rain snow line. Gonna be some surprises peeps.
Woop woop!!
awesome to hear mugs!
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Post by SENJsnowman on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:31 pm

@weatherwatchermom wrote:Temps are coming down we have some strong winds (20+)right now you can feel the cold front coming thru!! My son is a freshman in high school and on days of possible snow the pjs  go inside out and ice cubes in the toilet..I love when he acts like a kid!!  Very Happy  Very Happy Come on cold!! Come on snow!!

After the way last winter and our first two storms this year went for us down here in Ocean, I didn't really tell my kids anything about tomorrow. I figure maybe they can wake up with a nice fluffy surprise (and a delay of course, yes, I'm rooting for it, who wouldn't?). Speaking of which, check out the latest from Mt Holly:

"The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west
of I-95. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with
less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is
forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and
coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11
AM.

Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated
surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near
freezing. Therefore, we aren`t expecting any significant travel
issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them
to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we`re expecting a coating around
an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva
and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up
to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be
colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for
longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest
uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties
where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially
leading to higher totals.
"

Mt Holly never says anything optimistic about accumulating snow chances in Ocean County, so this is cool to see. I'm optimistic for maybe even breaking 3" imby for the first time since March 2018!  Like 9 straight 'storms', without cracking 3 measly inches!  Lol...that's a losing streak right there!  

We'll see what tonight brings, 44* and on pace to hopefully see the snow in the 2-3 am range. The cold is def ahead of schedule and other nowcast signs apparently look good, and here I go again...lol

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Tue Dec 10, 2019 11:54 pm

@SENJsnowman wrote:
@weatherwatchermom wrote:Temps are coming down we have some strong winds (20+)right now you can feel the cold front coming thru!! My son is a freshman in high school and on days of possible snow the pjs  go inside out and ice cubes in the toilet..I love when he acts like a kid!!  Very Happy  Very Happy Come on cold!! Come on snow!!

After the way last winter and our first two storms this year went for us down here in Ocean, I didn't really tell my kids anything about tomorrow. I figure maybe they can wake up with a nice fluffy surprise (and a delay of course, yes, I'm rooting for it, who wouldn't?). Speaking of which, check out the latest from Mt Holly:

"The heaviest snowfall will be before daybreak on Tuesday north/west
of I-95. However, less QPF is forecast in these areas so many areas may end up with
less than an inch. For the I-95 corridor, the heaviest snowfall is
forecast to fall from about 4-7AM. Farther south across southern and
coastal NJ as well as Delmarva, snowfall will end by around 10-11
AM.

Most of the snow will only stick to grassy and elevated
surfaces where it can fall quickly enough and temps can cool to near
freezing. Therefore, we aren`t expecting any significant travel
issues, however there may be some slushy spots on roads causing them
to become slippery.

As far as total snow accumulations, we`re expecting a coating around
an inch or so for most areas, with less than an inch across Delmarva
and extreme southern NJ. Farther north and east, isolated areas up
to 2" are possible. This is mainly confined to areas that will be
colder at the onset of snow and areas that will receive snow for
longer as the band of precip is moving offshore. The highest
uncertainty for snow amounts is across Monmouth and Ocean Counties
where banding and moderate snow may persist longer potentially
leading to higher totals.
"

Mt Holly never says anything optimistic about accumulating snow chances in Ocean County, so this is cool to see. I'm optimistic for maybe even breaking 3" imby for the first time since March 2018!  Like 9 straight 'storms', without cracking 3 measly inches!  Lol...that's a losing streak right there!  

We'll see what tonight brings, 44* and on pace to hopefully see the snow in the 2-3 am range. The cold is def ahead of schedule and other nowcast signs apparently look good, and here I go again...lol

I hope your children wake up to a surprise of white! Hope that band sets up over us!...in this house with a school start time of 7:25 and wake  up time of 6:30 we would love a delay.. Wink Wink  I so want to stay up for change over but won't make it...good luck to all!
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