December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:32 pm

Nice Scott hoping we can boost the totals closer to 5 along coast. Inland got their big one last time our turn and 3 to 6 is be very happy with. This doesn't look like a system that could produce crazy amounts though nam was very surprising. Sorry northern but hope man comes bit south.
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Dec 08, 2019 2:51 pm


thank you for the update..exciting December so far!
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 3:35 pm

NAM has heavy snow for all except maybe far N & W this is a coastal special on this run at 7am, thats not good for those who have to commute no matter what.
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 08, 2019 6:02 pm

Peeps,

The wave is gonna form along teh front and the snow will be see all the back to Memphis Tenn and possibly Little Rock and NE Texas.
The GFS has come aorund at 500mb to show the energy swing around the base of the trough and even holding back a bit allowing the cold air injection to get here and then the Jet Streak to allow the precip field to expand. This is a 2-4" type of event with WWA that most likely will go up tomorrow morning after the 0z runs tonight.
It will be a PITA for the commute with Delayed Openings and closing very possible for schools.
JET STREAK WOW
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 ELTANLTW4AEWoko?format=jpg&name=medium

Purple areas show heavy snow rates 1-2" per hour type
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 ELTANLWXkAA_rYw?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 08, 2019 8:11 pm

The energy off the NC coast if true will pop a weak coastal and enhance teh snowfall and slow up the boundary and thus the 4-6/8" swath that we are seeing in the SREFS and RGEM - they are onto this and we could be seeing a 2014 SB 2 surprise IMO.

City will lose an inch to two before stickage - not so about 10-15 mile outside the city for BL going to be 30/31*.

Great work here today.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 Gfs_5010


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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:02 pm

0Z nam rolling!
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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:37 pm

Widespread 3-5" on the NAM
December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 Namcon10
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Post by Irish on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:43 pm

The nam seems to have the heavier precip more inland versus others being near the coast.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:45 pm

@amugs wrote:The energy off the NC coast if true will pop a weak coastal and enhance teh snowfall and slow up the boundary and thus the 4-6/8" swath that we are seeing in the SREFS and RGEM - they are onto this and we could be seeing a 2014 SB 2 surprise IMO.

City will lose an inch to two before stickage - not so about 10-15 mile outside the city for BL going to be 30/31*.

Great work here today.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 Gfs_5010

The RGEM isnt in range yet for us, do you mean the swath of snow in the center of the country? It would be amazing to get a storm that big, nam was a tick up from 18z but not much for the coast or even inland pretty far N &W to get into 4-5.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:46 pm

00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign. December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 F3233210

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 08, 2019 9:53 pm

@sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign. December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 F3233210

I would!
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:07 pm

@aiannone wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign. December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 F3233210

I would!
Me too but what NAM run is that? , Thats not what I saw on wxbell and thats a wxbell map, is that the k word ratio thing? Just curious why the gamp between the 6 inch areas?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 10:11 pm

Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:01 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.

Banding. Here is the 00z GFS

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 6c7c7310

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Dec 08, 2019 11:43 pm

@sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign. December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 F3233210

Without a doubt
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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 12:28 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:00z NaM. Pretty sure we would all sign. December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 F3233210

Without a doubt

Not me...

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:34 am

So far the twc has me down for 1 to 3 inches of snow ❄ hopefully this will change

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:21 am

The 6z nam cut everything way down extremely short duration of snow. Now gfs had roughly double nam lol
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:24 am

Euro cut back too

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:26 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Yeah it is the Kutchera (sorry frank) ratio map of the 12km nam, man the whole center there gets jipped out of several inches but hey I guess we will take what we can get, is that a warm nose? I believe it was stated that would not be a issue.

Banding. Here is the 00z GFS

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 2 6c7c7310
I think I clicked report by accident Scott small screen on phone sorry bout that . I was saying looks like really short duration as 1 to 3 with ratios can't last but a hour or 2 at most. And mugs was talk bout 1 to 2 inch per hour rates. If this verifies I don't see snow that heavy unless it lasts a half HR lol
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:27 am

@sroc4 wrote:Euro cut back too
still 2 days out plenty time to change. Of course on all the models I appear to be between banding with many others. Man we can't catch a break lol
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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:50 am

Quickly looking at the jet streak it appears a little less robust and a tad further NE relative to the past few days. Not a good thing. This is the main driver to expanding The precip shield without a Defined LP.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by Irish on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:04 am

Predicted temps for Wednesday are trending warmer and snowfall amounts are lessening.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:27 am

Great still crossing fingers this trends back to past few days. And I thought you guys were sure temps wouldn't be a issue now it's go be warmer wed?
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:33 am

Yeah.  Give it until tomorrow morning before throwing in the towel with the caveat to keep expectations @ c-1".  These frontal passages with backend snow are really rare producers around here.  One way they can produce is if the Atlantic had some more support to slow down the flow or the trough was really sharp.  Neither of those things are on the table.  Sad

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