December 11th 2019 Snow Potential

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:43 am

@heehaw453 wrote:Yeah.  Give it until tomorrow morning before throwing in the towel with the caveat to keep expectations @ c-1".  These frontal passages with backend snow are really rare producers around here.  One way they can produce is if the Atlantic had some more support to slow down the flow or the trough was really sharp.  Neither of those things are on the table.  Sad

Without a real consolidated bit of energy coming out of the southwest this set up is 100% reliant on the timing placement and strength of the jet streak to the north with the temp gradient enhancing vertical motion. Trends overnight have been to weaken the JS and its much “thinner”. Without it all this is is a frontal passage with arctic polar air coming in.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
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WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 8:13 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:Yeah.  Give it until tomorrow morning before throwing in the towel with the caveat to keep expectations @ c-1".  These frontal passages with backend snow are really rare producers around here.  One way they can produce is if the Atlantic had some more support to slow down the flow or the trough was really sharp.  Neither of those things are on the table.  Sad

Without a real consolidated bit of energy coming out of the southwest this set up is 100% reliant on the timing placement and strength of the jet streak to the north with the temp gradient enhancing vertical motion.   Trends overnight have been to weaken the JS and its much “thinner”.  Without it all this is is a frontal passage with arctic polar air coming in.

Yes.  Spot on.  On any of the modeling I've seen with this energy it has has been strung out.  Just less so on the GFS and more so on the Euro and that's why GFS shows a bit more.  My guess is GFS will start to come inline today sometime.  Regardless I do expect some snow burst from this just from the frontogenesis at the 850 MB.

Check out this temp gradient.  

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:35 am

Did I just see news right 75 on Wed?!! Guess no snow.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:37 am

Canadian remains stubborn and optimistic.  I don't see much difference at the H5 between the GFS and GEM. This is within 48 hours now.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:43 am

I know many might have looked at a snow map for the NAM and thought it’s over. But actually think it’s quite the contrary

I actually love what the Nam did. Reason being is that it popped a stripe of a heavy precip axis just off the coast. If you look at the prev two runs that went away. GfS does the same thing as does rgem and CMC. Good trends imo so far. Let’s see what euro does.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:43 am

Nvm that must Bern for somewhere else but was on news 12. Now says 36 and 24 low. Hope cmc is right. What did 12z nam show? That's more important now than lr I think.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:24 pm

Looks like the 18z NAM bumped up the snowfall a notch from earlier runs. It has almost all of New Jersey in a 2-5" range -- the high end around South Jersey; low end in extreme NW Jersey; about 2-4" most other places.
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:31 pm

Yeah. What I'm noticing is the temperatures are crashing faster than previously modeled. Probably means the front swings though more quickly. Less precip, but less white rain. I rather have that scenario any day. Interesting...

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Post by aiannone on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:34 pm

18z NAM very similar in precip evolution to 12z. General 1-3" across the area with isolated 4" amounts look to be becoming the consensus.
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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:48 pm

What did Euro show at 12z?
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:48 pm

@hyde345 wrote:What did Euro show at 12z?

Mostly 1-2" range.

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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 3:55 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@hyde345 wrote:What did Euro show at 12z?

Mostly 1-2" range.

Thanks, that's what I'm expecting by me north of 84.
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:26 pm

Looks like not a big deal, might get an inch for us hyde. Heavy stuff if you call it that will be south of us!

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Post by amugs on Mon Dec 09, 2019 4:56 pm

GFS doing a good job eith the 500 level axis and what happens is a small meoscale LP looks to form and thus its CC flow brings more moister in and upholds the front and the arctic air is a couple hours earlier now. Gonna be interesting for the commute and for schools. GFS snow map
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Post by hyde345 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:06 pm

@jimv45 wrote:Looks like not a big deal, might get an inch for us hyde. Heavy stuff if you call it that will be south of us!

Yeah, Jim. I'm expecting 1-2, maybe 3 if we are lucky. That's ok though, any snow is good snow. FYI I signed up for a NWS spotter webinar this Saturday. I sent them an email asking if this can replace the physical training sessions and if certificates are issued. I will let you know what they say.
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:14 pm

Hyde that sounds good. I am very much looking into this being in Ulster now I expect more snow and would love to do that if time permits for me!!

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:37 pm

So after the past 2 days of runs Im feeling pretty confident with my original call of a general 1-3" across the board with a few areas seeing higher totals. I do think 3-6" is doable under a heavy bands but will be mostly isolated. I probably wont do an official snow map.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:51 pm

From Canada with love!

I'm getting my digital shovel ready!

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:56 pm

Wow that band hammers me! Cmc only one with high snow gfs does have more like 3 to 5 now.
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Post by Irish on Mon Dec 09, 2019 5:57 pm

Looks awesome for central Jersey heehaw. I'm predicted to get 2-4. I'm southern Middlesex county, bordering Ocean.

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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:12 pm

Nws isn't too interested not even a hwo. And normally by now there would be. Just talks bout the rain.
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Post by Irish on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:28 pm

Just checked TWC again and they've upticked the temps and lowered snow total to c-2.

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Post by sroc4 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:32 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Nws isn't too interested not even a hwo. And normally by now there would be. Just talks bout the rain.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 3 StormTotalSnowWeb1

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by jmanley32 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 6:52 pm

[quote="sroc4"]
@jmanley32 wrote:Nws isn't too interested not even a hwo. And normally by now there would be. Just talks bout the rain.

December 11th 2019 Snow Potential - Page 3 StormTotalSnowWeb1[/quote show off lol. Less a long coast? I thought it would be less further north looks like Hyde you luck out again 3 to 4 as we stand.
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Post by jimv45 on Mon Dec 09, 2019 7:10 pm

If I was them i would have flipped that map jman, I think Hyde and myself don't see over an inch, closer to the coast it may be more precip but temps an issue will see. The 2-4 may not be to far inland, Lee Goldberg kind of brought that up!

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