Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Page 11 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11

Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:38 am

30 and freezing rain here and its getting icy. It snowed for about 2 hours after midnight and that was it. Picked up a half inch.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 802
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jimv45 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:48 am

Hyde surprised that mix line made it up to you that quick. Still snowing at a pretty good clip here, should see some mixing later.

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1067
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:00 am

@jimv45 wrote:Hyde surprised that mix line made it up to you that quick.  Still snowing at a pretty good clip here, should see some mixing later.

It was always going to mix here, I was just hoping that we wouldn't get the ZR which I hate. Good to see you are still all snow.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 802
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:36 am

Albany is currently under a dry slot. Models have it filling in this afternoon. Whether it actually fills in remains to be seen.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2241
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:38 am

@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Ecmwf-36

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  told ya

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Animate

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6455
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 17, 2019 11:48 am

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Image.png.985aee75458e17c4e87f81a6910e51f4

GONNA BE A WHILE OUCH!!

Mesoscale Discussion 2223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 171606Z - 172100Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with some areas of heavier precipitation
rates, is expected to continue to around 4-5 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Freezing rain has been observed this morning from
northeastern PA into eastern RI and adjacent MA. As a
positively-tilted mid-level trough continues to move through the
upper Midwest, a surface low within the Mid-Atlantic region is
expected to move northeastward. Isentropic/frontogenetic ascent will
continue across portions of southern New England through the
remainder of the afternoon. A fairly pronounced warm nose was
evident at 850 mb on the 12Z OKX sounding. With surface temperatures
below freezing and northerly surface flow expected to remain in
place, freezing rain will be possible until 4-5 PM EST.

..Wendt.. 12/17/2019

Delayed opening had about .10" to .15" on the deck.
Up at 5AM for the call and saw a nice gleam of light reflecting off sidewalk, trees and roads here - they dont salt for squat here!! Two large limbs hit the deck here off a huge oak tree - that's about all.
Meso saw all the precip as freezing rain but needed surface to be a couple of degrees colder like 28* and then holy momma's it would have been terrible here.
Another wintry event to track so good in my book and 4th one this year and....its not even winter !!! Very Happy cheers cheers cheers

Squalls Thursday - that should be fun!!

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10634
Reputation : 187
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 12:46 pm

Dry slot has filled in, snow here has picked up again.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2241
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:05 pm

@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Ecmwf-36

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  told ya

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Animate

savior savior savior

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18942
Reputation : 289
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:16 pm

Heavy icing here, been frz all day, I would say 0.1-0.2, everything is encased in ice, pretty cool looking so far no major issues few branches down. Imagine if we had high winds. Be a totally different story.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 1:17 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Ecmwf-36

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  told ya

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Animate

savior savior savior
LMAO, where were you all day yesterday and night? Hiding cuz the forecast blew? JK yeah you nailed it covering half the northern part of EC LOL
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by billg315 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:22 pm

Looking at the models it appears some areas could see a brief snow squall tomorrow afternoon -- or at least some off and on snow flurries. Mood flakes as Scott would say.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2944
Reputation : 155
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 46
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by hyde345 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:43 pm

30 with light ZR continuing. Have about 1/4 inch of ice now.
hyde345
hyde345
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 802
Reputation : 44
Join date : 2013-01-08
Location : Hyde Park, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by frank 638 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 2:58 pm

So depressing rain all day today temp has not moved all day still at 33*

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2047
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by sroc4 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:04 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@sroc4 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Ecmwf-36

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  told ya

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Animate

savior savior savior
LMAO, where were you all day yesterday and night? Hiding cuz the forecast blew? JK yeah you nailed it covering half the northern part of EC LOL

This was obv a goof on myself. Its really hard for me these days to spend the time doing analysis and be on the board often during crunch time.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6455
Reputation : 275
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by amugs on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:11 pm

Great job SROC!!
Big Boy Storm Jan 7-9 time frame. why?? High Energy Solar Cycle and planetary Alignment with Saturn - the usually bring big east coast storms.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10634
Reputation : 187
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jimv45 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:25 pm

Snow and sleet look to be over here, lucky didn't get that dreaded Freezing rain!!

jimv45
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1067
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-09-20
Location : Ulster county ny

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Dec 17, 2019 3:27 pm

29.1° light freezing rain with sleet.

It never topped 30 today. Basically an ice world but they threw down so much salt the roads are okay. I wouldn't drive past sunset tonight it could get ugly.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUGS!!!!! Even though we didn't get a MUgzilla out of this, very happy you're cleared and healthy, and please stay that way.

CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6373
Reputation : 220
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:35 pm

It's really bad in yonkers we have a 1/4 inch not and a breeze trees are snapping all over. I have pics I'll upload when I'm home. Big pieces ice falling off hit my car and almost hit me on sidewalk. It wasn't bad earlier but trees are giving way now.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by frank 638 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 5:50 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:It's really bad in yonkers we have a 1/4 inch not and a breeze trees are snapping all over. I have pics I'll upload when I'm home. Big pieces ice falling off hit my car and almost hit me on sidewalk. It wasn't bad earlier but trees are giving way now.
thank god u are ok just drive safe be careful . It’s crazy because I take the five train from Pelham Parkway and around that area trees are covered with ice and the temperature is 32° meanwhile by my area in Throgs neck everything is fine temperatures are above freezing I am still at 33° still raining

frank 638
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2047
Reputation : 32
Join date : 2016-01-01
Age : 36
Location : bronx ny

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 6:14 pm

Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191210

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191211

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191212

jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:09 pm

ALB had 2.5" of snow as of 4 PM.  It did pick up for about an hour afterwards so maybe it hits 3".  Regardless, this puts Albany's December snowfall at 27" (and seasonal snow total at 29.3")

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2241
Reputation : 64
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 7:30 pm

Hey guys I couldn't post the pics the power went out just as I was putting it together a giant tree came down and cut the wires and started a big fire they had to shut off the entire neighborhood I have no idea when it'll come back probably tomorrow so I'll post the pictures when I get home from work
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:05 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191210

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191211

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191212


Wow. Looks bad.

heehaw453

Posts : 816
Reputation : 69
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Dec 17, 2019 8:33 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191210

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191211

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 20191212


Wow. Looks bad.
I lost power as was uploading damage pics I'll have more tomorrow.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16357
Reputation : 89
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 11 Empty Re: Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Dec 17, 2019 10:13 pm

Wow cool pics Jman

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18942
Reputation : 289
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Page 11 of 11 Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 9, 10, 11

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum