Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

Looks like ZR changing to light sleet here.29 degrees.

Tell you what. It is sleeting and freezing here to beat the band. I think the worst is yet to come.

30 and freezing rain here and its getting icy. It snowed for about 2 hours after midnight and that was it. Picked up a half inch.

Hyde surprised that mix line made it up to you that quick. Still snowing at a pretty good clip here, should see some mixing later.

jimv45 wrote:Hyde surprised that mix line made it up to you that quick.  Still snowing at a pretty good clip here, should see some mixing later.

It was always going to mix here, I was just hoping that we wouldn't get the ZR which I hate. Good to see you are still all snow.

Albany is currently under a dry slot. Models have it filling in this afternoon. Whether it actually fills in remains to be seen.

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  

GONNA BE A WHILE OUCH!!

Mesoscale Discussion 2223
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Tue Dec 17 2019

Areas affected...Portions of southern New England

Concerning...Freezing rain

Valid 171606Z - 172100Z

SUMMARY...Freezing rain, with some areas of heavier precipitation
rates, is expected to continue to around 4-5 PM EST.

DISCUSSION...Freezing rain has been observed this morning from
northeastern PA into eastern RI and adjacent MA. As a
positively-tilted mid-level trough continues to move through the
upper Midwest, a surface low within the Mid-Atlantic region is
expected to move northeastward. Isentropic/frontogenetic ascent will
continue across portions of southern New England through the
remainder of the afternoon. A fairly pronounced warm nose was
evident at 850 mb on the 12Z OKX sounding. With surface temperatures
below freezing and northerly surface flow expected to remain in
place, freezing rain will be possible until 4-5 PM EST.

..Wendt.. 12/17/2019

Delayed opening had about .10" to .15" on the deck.
Up at 5AM for the call and saw a nice gleam of light reflecting off sidewalk, trees and roads here - they dont salt for squat here!! Two large limbs hit the deck here off a huge oak tree - that's about all.
Meso saw all the precip as freezing rain but needed surface to be a couple of degrees colder like 28* and then holy momma's it would have been terrible here.
Another wintry event to track so good in my book and 4th one this year and....its not even winter !!!

Squalls Thursday - that should be fun!!

Dry slot has filled in, snow here has picked up again.

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  

Heavy icing here, been frz all day, I would say 0.1-0.2, everything is encased in ice, pretty cool looking so far no major issues few branches down. Imagine if we had high winds. Be a totally different story.

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  

LMAO, where were you all day yesterday and night? Hiding cuz the forecast blew? JK yeah you nailed it covering half the northern part of EC LOL

Looking at the models it appears some areas could see a brief snow squall tomorrow afternoon -- or at least some off and on snow flurries. Mood flakes as Scott would say.

30 with light ZR continuing. Have about 1/4 inch of ice now.

So depressing rain all day today temp has not moved all day still at 33*

jmanley32 wrote:

Frank_Wx wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

sroc4 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Looks like a aweful lot of things have to go right for this to happen but it's nice to have things to track. The 22nd looks awesome posdibility.

by sroc4 on Thu Dec 12, 2019 9:03 am

That's always the case Jman for it to work out for anyone who wants a specific outcome in a specific back yard. There is; however, a high probability of a snowstorm in the north east within this time frame given the set up.  Its more a matter of where.  Mother nature doesnt work on the tiny scales that we do when it comes to details.  A matter of 200 miles north or south to a rain snow line means nothing to MN.  Someone within the circled area will see a snowstorm of some type between the 16th-19th.  Thats a guarantee.

 

Man 5 days out and I nailed another one.  

LMAO, where were you all day yesterday and night? Hiding cuz the forecast blew? JK yeah you nailed it covering half the northern part of EC LOL

This was obv a goof on myself. Its really hard for me these days to spend the time doing analysis and be on the board often during crunch time.

Great job SROC!!
Big Boy Storm Jan 7-9 time frame. why?? High Energy Solar Cycle and planetary Alignment with Saturn - the usually bring big east coast storms.

Snow and sleet look to be over here, lucky didn't get that dreaded Freezing rain!!

29.1° light freezing rain with sleet.

It never topped 30 today. Basically an ice world but they threw down so much salt the roads are okay. I wouldn't drive past sunset tonight it could get ugly.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MUGS!!!!! Even though we didn't get a MUgzilla out of this, very happy you're cleared and healthy, and please stay that way.

It's really bad in yonkers we have a 1/4 inch not and a breeze trees are snapping all over. I have pics I'll upload when I'm home. Big pieces ice falling off hit my car and almost hit me on sidewalk. It wasn't bad earlier but trees are giving way now.

jmanley32 wrote:It's really bad in yonkers we have a 1/4 inch not and a breeze trees are snapping all over. I have pics I'll upload when I'm home. Big pieces ice falling off hit my car and almost hit me on sidewalk. It wasn't bad earlier but trees are giving way now.

thank god u are ok just drive safe be careful . It’s crazy because I take the five train from Pelham Parkway and around that area trees are covered with ice and the temperature is 32° meanwhile by my area in Throgs neck everything is fine temperatures are above freezing I am still at 33° still raining

Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

ALB had 2.5" of snow as of 4 PM.  It did pick up for about an hour afterwards so maybe it hits 3".  Regardless, this puts Albany's December snowfall at 27" (and seasonal snow total at 29.3")

Hey guys I couldn't post the pics the power went out just as I was putting it together a giant tree came down and cut the wires and started a big fire they had to shut off the entire neighborhood I have no idea when it'll come back probably tomorrow so I'll post the pictures when I get home from work

jmanley32 wrote:Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

Wow. Looks bad.

heehaw453 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Pics from today and the damage so far this evening.

Wow. Looks bad.

I lost power as was uploading damage pics I'll have more tomorrow.

Wow cool pics Jman