Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm

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Post by jimv45 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 11:49 am

Yes Hyde expecting 2-4- 3-6 with little sleet mixing in, not expecting very much ZR that looks to stay to my south.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 12:23 pm

Any chance this trends back to original system? What is making the front end fizzle? I mean none 5he models had that till nam showed it.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:03 pm

I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly. The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most. GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did. Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.


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Post by hyde345 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 1:18 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.


True the GFS never had the waa modeled the way euro did but it did have low cutting to Great Lakes for days and has been inconsistent with the evolution as well. We will see how it plays out.
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 2:47 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.


For this it maybe right but he track was absolutely atrocious from a lakes cutter rainstorm - yeah that's gonna verify, to a Apps runner to a low that's get killed by the PA/WV border now. The EURO has been steadfast on a snow to ice to rain for the coast and a snow to ice event for inland since Wednesday. If I cold post the last 16 runs. of teh GFS evolution it would be comical.
It may not be what the EURO was showing at 0z or 12Z yesterday but it can be impact for a large swath of NNJ and LHV. This is concerning for Tuesday morning in NNJ
Lightish precip
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL2OjDXXUAEJCGJ?format=png&name=medium

Sub Freezing Temps I78 North
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL2OjPDWoAMTnjx?format=png&name=medium

NYC Metro not a problem nor LI but above I 78 it could be really dicy and icy

The cold arctic push behind this is pretty intense for this time of the year





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Post by aiannone on Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:14 pm

18z NAM coming in colder
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 99f18e10
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 3:17 pm

@amugs wrote:
@heehaw453 wrote:I must say the Euro has handled this storm very poorly.  The GFS has been steadfast saying non snow event for most.  GFS never bought into the WAA the way the Euro did.  Not the first time Euro has sold a false set of goods this year at close range.


For this it maybe right but he track was absolutely atrocious from a lakes cutter rainstorm - yeah that's gonna verify, to a Apps runner to a low that's get killed by the PA/WV border now. The EURO has been steadfast on a snow to ice to rain for the coast and a snow to ice event for inland since Wednesday. If I cold post the last 16 runs. of teh GFS evolution it would be comical.
It may not be what the EURO was showing at 0z or 12Z yesterday but it can be impact for a large swath of NNJ and LHV. This is concerning for Tuesday morning in NNJ
Lightish precip
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL2OjDXXUAEJCGJ?format=png&name=medium

Sub Freezing Temps I78 North
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL2OjPDWoAMTnjx?format=png&name=medium

NYC Metro not a problem nor LI but above I 78 it could be really dicy and icy

The cold arctic push behind this is pretty intense for this time of the year





Fwiw euro had it cutting too on a few runs. It was never going to be an all snow event regardless of whether it cut or not.

4-6” on Saturday 0z from TTN to route 80. Now showing 1/2”. That is NAM like. Also did similar
thing with beginning of December storm albeit that was within 24 hours.

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 4:33 pm

The Euro did have cuter idea then made an abrupt and correct change. The GFS and the lead met who writes the program for this model Dr. Alpert has been working on correcting its "stubborn" bias and how slow it is to evolve with such SWFE.
Listen, I don't care if it showed 4" then 1",btw we are not seeing a 1/2" of snow N of I80 in NNJ, the fact being the euro lost the cutter idea on this said storm days ago whilst the GFS went from a lakes cutter to a apps runner to what it is now.
Has the Euro been stellar no not at all, but it started to see this evolution a hell of a lot earlier than the GFS. Also, the ice accretion though overdone to a degree will come to fruition over NNJ and the LHV and EPA.
Just got an alert from NWS on my phone for a WWA for up to 2" of snow and .20 of ice for my area in NNJ monday evening through 6pm Tuesday night.
As I posted the temps map, the CAD is going to be tough to scour if you put down a couple inches of snow meaning it will hang on longer.
Now cast time ahead.
New HRRR model.from Superstorm on 33&rain site
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 18Z-20191215_HRRRV4MA_prec_ptype-32-48-20-80.gif.9522943ad0318ed9629e7e45a43bba9d


Last edited by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:35 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:39 pm

If the mesoscale models are right. 20 miles to nw of 95 should prepare for an ice storm. Especially RGEM.

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Post by billg315 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:52 pm

My sense now is that we get a few hours of light snow in the afternoon then everyone north of I-78 should be on alert for a fair amount of icing Monday evening into the pre-dawn hours of Tuesday. The odds are even greater north of I-80. My area may be just far enough south that we creep above 32* and go to plain rain by mid-evening -- but even that is dicey. The further north you go the longer it will take for surface temps to warm up so I wouldn't rule out some real ice problems from this for many in NNJ and LHV.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 5:53 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:If the mesoscale models are right. 20 miles to nw of 95 should prepare for an ice storm. Especially RGEM.
Greeat thats about white plains NY where I work. Is this still tomorrow or tuesday?
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:01 pm

MOG, The ice is crazy look at that intense band, it is pretty close to coast on HDRPS. Wow
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:03 pm

HMMM, this doesnt look good, into the city on 12z?!

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 Hrdps-10
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:04 pm

Meso models showing NE winds. That’s kiss of death for CAD and ice storm. NAO and weak storm allow slp to cut underneath.

If rgem is right this will be 1/3-1/2+” ice accretion. Hopefully mesos are wrong.

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:08 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:Meso models showing NE winds. That’s kiss of death for CAD and ice storm. NAO and weak storm allow slp to cut underneath.  

If rgem is right this will be 1/3-1/2+” ice accretion. Hopefully mesos are wrong.
This is gonna be 100% nowcast IMO, where the icing sets up, how long it persists. rgem has over a inch in some areas of PA and NJ, thats horrific.
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Post by bobjohnsonforthehall on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:43 pm

HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 6:53 pm

@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.
Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 Woah10
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Post by hyde345 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:13 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.
Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 Woah10


Those amounts are a little ridiculous. 1/2 inch ice storms only happen about once every 10 years. I find it funny that this system has had a 1000 different solutions so far.
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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:15 pm

@hyde345 wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:
@bobjohnsonforthehall wrote:HRDPS better be on crack. Egads.
Dear Lord!! I find it hard to believe the city sees that much but just outside and certainly inland, but omg highest 2.23 inches!!! Thats crippling as mugs would put it. Even 0.76 as it shows around city is terrible, this all looks to come during the day tuesday too, not so much monday into tueesday morning.

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 Woah10


Those amounts are a little ridiculous. 1/2 inch ice storms only happen about once every 10 years. I find it funny that this system has had a 1000 different solutions so far.
If it is true everyone is going to be caught off guard. rgem is at its end range lets see what it shows tomorrow 12z.
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:39 pm

EURO bring the snow swath back - picking up on more precip on teh front end. The model dance ...
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL3ku16XkAEspe3?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by jmanley32 on Sun Dec 15, 2019 7:43 pm

@amugs wrote:EURO bring the snow swath back - picking up on more precip on teh front end. The model dance ...
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL3ku16XkAEspe3?format=jpg&name=medium
LMAO good lord, that ice map on hi-res rgem has me getting 1.0-1.25 ice accretion thats really bad, Euro is back with ice again too about 0.25-0.5 for my area. Lordy this is going to catch people off guard in one way or another, timing does not even seem to be nailed down.  Also timing doesnt look like anything starts until 03z Tuesday, thats way off from tomorrow afternoon, why does frank still have banner up saying tomorrow? This is showing on most models to now be a tuesday into late tuesday night event.
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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 8:29 pm

Tom Petty (Your Favorite CP)  Euro saying Wont Back Down concerning ice accumulations

Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 EL3ngDCWkAAqX4S?format=jpg&name=medium

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:21 pm

NAM says I support you EURO.
Dec 16-17 Snow/Ice potential storm - Page 3 Img_2044



Last holdout?? Anyone? Anyone?

GFS.

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Post by Irish on Sun Dec 15, 2019 9:48 pm

Winter Weather Advisory from MON 1:00 PM EST until TUE 7:00 AM EST
1 of 2
Action Recommended
Execute a pre-planned activity identified in the instructions
Issued By
Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service
Affected Area
Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania
Description
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM MONDAY TO 7 AM EST TUESDAY...

WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of up to one inch and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch.

WHERE...Portions of central, northern and northwest New Jersey and east central and southeast Pennsylvania.

WHEN...From 1 PM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday.

IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday evening commute.

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow begins Monday morning and then will mix with sleet and freezing rain Monday afternoon. Precipitation then changes to plain rain Monday night. Rain then continues through Tuesday before tapering off Tuesday night.

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Post by amugs on Sun Dec 15, 2019 10:05 pm

They are riding the GFS and may bust hard Irish.
If people follow this they and these maps like the Euro and NAM come to fruition there will be many unhappy peeps.

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