January 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:41 am

Happy New Year! The pattern really sucks right now, thankful for a decent day tomorrow for my annual cousins pub crawl in NYC. Not often we have 38* at midnight in January!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Jan 01, 2020 1:31 am

Happy New Year!…..38* real feel 26 ...let's start off the decade..with a snowstorm! Fingers crossed one happens soon!
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Post by frank 638 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 9:35 am

Happy healthy new year to you and your family may 2020 bring cold and snowy conditions for us snow lovers

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Post by amugs on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:09 pm

35* and flurries!!! Great sign for 2020 and the decade!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
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Post by docstox12 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 12:42 pm

Driving back from the Thayer Hotel in historic West Point where my wife and I spent New Years Eve and Night, cloudy, windy flurries, 36 degrees.
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Post by billg315 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 2:50 pm

Cloudy 38*. Had some flurries earlier.
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Post by heehaw453 on Wed Jan 01, 2020 4:18 pm

36 high today. Had flurries too. I've had much worse starts to January.

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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:30 am

Sunday morning is a nice hit on the Euro especially for a Long Island the trend has been South and colder
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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:33 am

4 to 6 in for New York City proper 6 to 10 in Suffolk County
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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:07 am

@algae888 wrote:Sunday morning is a nice hit on the Euro especially for a Long Island the trend has been South and colder

The trend has def been colder overall.  The euro soln overnight is def overdone regarding snow totals for the coastal plain as surface temps appear to hover just above freezing but if 500mb was to shake out verbatim to what the 00z Euro showed some accumulation in and around the coastal plain would be possible.  

Follow the northern energy on the GIF below as it digs into the back side of the southern mean trough.  The key is as it does so it generates a cutoff Low in the perfect location just south and east of LI, which in turns generates a rapidly deepening LP on the surface which leads to a deformation band that thumps over the area.    

January 2020 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-37
January 2020 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-1577923200-1577998800-1578268800-40

January 2020 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-38
January 2020 Observations and Discussion Ecmwf-39



The GFS also evelops the rapidly deepening LP and deformation band; however, too far to our NE to affect our area in a significant way.  As the S/R hi es models begin to come into range today we will see how this plays out.  def need to temper expectations as things have to come together baby bear...aka just right. Will a deformation band develop, and will some of us be under it?  We'll see.  

January 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs-de12
January 2020 Observations and Discussion Gfs-de13

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by algae888 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 8:53 am

6z euro even better than 00z
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Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:17 am

Nice to have something to track again! It’s been a while. 12z Nam looks to be coming in south again
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Post by aiannone on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:08 am

6z Euro
January 2020 Observations and Discussion 877c7310
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:09 am

25* for my low this morning.
Looks like we maybe threading the needle on this one.
Busy 1st day back at school - more tonight to write!!

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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by billg315 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:10 am

12z GFS and NAM didn't do much to get me excited. At least it looks to turn colder for a few days after the rain Saturday regardless of whether anything develops Sunday morning.
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:27 am

I sure want to believe the 06Z Euro, but to Billg's point there isn't much agreement for that among guidance. I don't trust the NAM at this range, but nothing really gets the low to a 982 inside the BM.

I think there will be a storm and it will intensify, but not as quickly and deeply as the recent Euro runs suggests. That makes all the difference to what we get.

I'll wait until tomorrow runs on Euro before getting too pessimistic on this though. As I noted in the LR, the threat on 1/8 may be a much simpler way to get some snow around here. Keep on eye on that one too.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 11:56 am

I too would seriously temper expectations on this one. Even if the euro crushes us on today's run I'm not buying it until I see some agreement.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by heehaw453 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:13 pm

12Z Euro shows bupkis regarding snow as the storm develops too far away to cause much interest even in SNE.  A very radical change in just 6 hours.

Still should watch this though as it's close enough to have last minute shifts.

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Post by sroc4 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:40 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:12Z Euro shows bupkis regarding snow as the storm develops too far away to cause much interest even in SNE.  A very radical change in just 6 hours.

Still should watch this though as it's close enough to have last minute shifts.

And 500 never really closes off.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 6.35" (First snow Nov 12th)
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Post by hyde345 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 1:45 pm

I'd say the fat lady is clearing her throat and getting ready to sing as far as this weekend's system. I think the only hope we have for snow the next 2 weeks is around the 8th.
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:24 pm

Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming. Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Jan 02, 2020 4:35 pm

@jmanley32 wrote:Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming.  Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.

Really jman? Almost always wrong? Just because you are frustrated with this beginning to winter, doesn't mean that the problem is the models. Have there been challenges? Absolutely. Has the pattern helped? No. How many times have the models been right? And how many times have we said on here the MODELS ARE FOR GUIDANCE? I think you need a time out, that was really not a cool thing to say to the members on this board, in essence calling us stupid.

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by jmanley32 on Thu Jan 02, 2020 5:20 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Couldnt say I didnt see that one coming.  Havent you guys learned by now that the models are almost always wrong? At least this year they have been terrible.

Really jman? Almost always wrong? Just because you are frustrated with this beginning to winter, doesn't mean that the problem is the models. Have there been challenges? Absolutely. Has the pattern helped? No. How many times have the models been right? And how many times have we said on here the MODELS ARE FOR GUIDANCE? I think you need a time out, that was really not a cool thing to say to the members on this board, in essence calling us stupid.
Not how I meant it at all, I apologize if it came across that way, honestly I am not frustrated at all but it seems like we always get excited over storms (understood) but honestly I find that more times than not we are let down. Now I get that thats a part of tracking but it appears maybe we should not track everything, just my thoughts, not aimed anyone and I never called anyone stupid, if anything you guys have as you have stated to me many times not to look at the surface or take models verbatim.

I only check in from time to time since the ice storm because well frankly something just tells me this is going to be a uneventful year, I have heard on here some very not so ood trends on the LR, yes it goes back and forth but I need consistency as we all do in models and LR guidance. I am just hoping to check in one day and see that we are 90% chance getting a snowstorm for all. That is all i'll take my time out now. LOL
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Post by amugs on Thu Jan 02, 2020 6:02 pm

500 level is NG and the needle threading is done for this. The pattern was not conducive to an accumulating snowstorm but we needed a perfect alignment which the EURO was showing for a few runs.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge. More to write in LR thread.

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Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Thu Jan 02, 2020 7:35 pm

@amugs wrote:500 level is NG and the needle threading is done for this.  The pattern was not conducive to an accumulating snowstorm but we needed a perfect alignment which the EURO was showing for a few runs.
We have to see what next week brings. After that close the shades for a couple of weeks as the MJO convection goes strong over NW Aussie land and drives the phase 4 and 5 down our throats with the SE Ridge.  More to write in LR thread.


Thanks Mugs for the update...a little disappointing, but making lemonade out of lemons...getting things done around house..mild weather allows me to clean out the attic..a project that should have been done a while ago..so here's to really cold and snowy weather following our warm spell.
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