January 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by dkodgis on Thu Jan 02, 2020 9:29 pm

Baby bear. Language I understand.

Regarding the snow: soon come man
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Jan 03, 2020 7:58 am

surprise surprise..a gray gloomy morning, currently surprise again...raining and 44*
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Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Jan 03, 2020 10:50 am

If it’s not going to snow at least let it be sunny and 50

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:38 pm

can you guess??? gloomy foggy day currently 51* I agree with Frank if its going to be warm at least be sunny!!
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Post by dkodgis on Sat Jan 04, 2020 3:59 pm

I’m at West Point super foggy
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Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 04, 2020 4:08 pm

18z NAM for Tuesday night
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Post by Vinnydula on Sat Jan 04, 2020 10:36 pm

Light snow with some mix
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Post by aiannone on Sat Jan 04, 2020 11:58 pm

0z CMC similar to the NAM
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Post by dkodgis on Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:08 am

4 am dog run and it’s 33 with a stiff wind. About 18 mph and it’s steady. Loud enough to awaken me. Surprisingly loud and steady
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 6:34 am

0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless. It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam10

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam211


0Z Euro

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Euro11

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Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:54 am

@heehaw453 wrote:0Z Euro was more robust and looks pretty darned similar to latest NAM.  I think especially for those NW of 95 this can render some white gold that sticks. Surface temps will be marginal the closer to coast one is.

Still not a lock at this range, but encouraging nonetheless.  It will depend on how several separate short waves interact with one another and expect changes on model solutions in next 24 hours.

This is 06Z NAM

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam10

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam211

0Z Euro

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Euro11

Important to point out is that on all models, I’ll show euro gfs and Nam, there is a negative tilted shortwave trough.  The timing and degree of tilt is still somewhat varying with said trough. As the trough hits the coast there will be a LP developing and strengthening and Atlantic moisture to work with. The exact track and degree of strengthing will be critical.   This is an important factor and is what gives the threat of snow some legs but by no means is this an ideal set up here. This all has to be perfect since the pattern to the east and the pattern to the west is anything but ideal here. There is a weak western ridge that is even making this interesting.

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There are some differences in exact placement and strength of the shortwave energy. As a result the thermal profiles are different as well as where the surface low tracks exactly and consequently whee the heavier precip falls. As heehaw points out the surface temps are marginal at best along the coast so more than likely the track will needs to be on the SE side of guidance track wise and it would need to thump in order to accumulate along the coast. In order for our NW peeps to get some the track will need to be tucked in more, but this would be at the expense of the coastal plain remaining warmer.  

In a pattern that is absolutely horrendous take this as a gift, don’t expect much, and you get what you get(or don’t get, and you don’t get upset.

We track!!!  What a Face

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.85" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace---Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"---Dec 11th = 2"---Jan 7th = 0.75"
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:52 am

Nice write up sroc.  Latest 12Z NAM continues the idea of the surface low strengthening.  How quickly can it ramp up and how tucked is it to the coast. This look here would be good for LI and coastal NJ.

If i were to bet I'd say a bit more tucked than this representation for the aforementioned SE ridge and the tilt of the trough.  Much better handle on this tomorrow i think.

January 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 2 Nam50013

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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:01 am

SUN...THERE IS SUN...currently 37* winds coming out of the north at 16 mph (gusts in the 20's)real feel 30*..


Last edited by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:22 am; edited 1 time in total
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Sun Jan 05, 2020 10:02 am

Thank you for the updates Heehaw and Sroc!
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Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 12:17 pm

Wind is whipping out there. 40* with a wind chill of 28*. Winds at 18 mph, 33 mph gusts.
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Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 2:27 pm

Latest update has the consensus take the system track too far SE. just a scrape with the precip shield to The coast. Again no real expectations here but some room to wobble back north

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.85" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace---Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"---Dec 11th = 2"---Jan 7th = 0.75"
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Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 05, 2020 4:56 pm

18z NAM caved. OTS. GFS agrees. Still a little time to turn around but not likely given the progressive flow
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Jan 05, 2020 8:47 pm

Was hoping the short wave in southern Quebec was going to get out of the way of the developing coastal system. But looks like it won't and therefore the coastal low gets shunted off the coast and remains weak. I'll throw in the towel on this threat tomorrow if things continue like this.

Could have been a nice moderate event for some. Que sera, sera.

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Post by Grselig on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:27 pm

This sadly could be a hurrah. My NWS forecast for tonight.

Light snow likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.. Sad
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Post by aiannone on Sun Jan 05, 2020 9:39 pm

0z Nam came back a little west. So close!
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 06, 2020 12:51 am

IT'S SNOWING!!! Everything is covered except the road.wow did not expect this!! Too excited to go back to sleep
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Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Jan 06, 2020 1:53 am

STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR
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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 am

LOL!  The "event" for me was tonight.  1" OTG and 29 degrees, so it stuck to everything.  No shutout for January and judging by the radar, CPK should be at least getting an 1" since they're at 32!  Well on the way to beating last January.

Too funny.

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Post by heehaw453 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 2:28 am

@weatherwatchermom wrote:STILL SNOWING 1/2 INCH SO FAR

nice!

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Post by frank 638 on Mon Jan 06, 2020 4:55 am

Coating of snow Mainly on car tops and grass

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