January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Page 1 of 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 13, 2020 8:51 am

Good Morning!

A winter storm threatens us this Saturday. We began a mild stretch of weather last week and it will continue this week. However, by a stroke of luck (seriously I think Mother Nature feels bad for winter weather lovers), a clipper-like storm is expected to deepen in New England on Thursday which helps to usher cold air into the northeast late Friday. Behind the clipper system a 1042mb High Pressure follows:

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gfs_mslpa_us_19

This *fresh* source of arctic air is what sets us up nicely for Saturday. With cold air in a place, and a low pressure approaching from the west, we have ingredients to make a snowstorm. Like the trend has been this winter, this Low Pressure will cut to our west which will try to raise temps along the coast. That same High Pressure will also act as a block, so when the LP does cut, a secondary LP will try to develop off our coast.

A lot can still change with this system since we are very reliant on a singular High Pressure (giving us cold air AND acting as a block for the primary low). My initial thoughts are a widespread 3-6" snowstorm for the region, more N&W, before changing to rain. Let's see what trends models show this week leading up to the event. This would hit us late Friday night and last thru most of Saturday.




_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18886
Reputation : 281
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by essexcountypete on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:24 am

Thanks Frank! I just spotted this on the 10 day and came here to see what was being discussed, and you're on top of it. A nice way to start the week.
essexcountypete
essexcountypete
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 449
Reputation : 11
Join date : 2013-12-09
Location : Bloomfield, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by mwilli on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:39 am

This is why I tell people/friends to go to this site.When I tell them about a NAO,NPO,AO,they kinda look at me"strange-like"cause I'm into weather,anyway so we have Saturday to watch,plus possible 2 other one's down the road..ok will spread the word,stock up on salt,and see what happens ...

mwilli

Posts : 44
Reputation : 1
Join date : 2019-02-11

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:47 am

Woah starting with 75% right off the bat! If you read banter you will see my new way of taking any possible storms. Am not getting excited and if it turns to rain which models are showing that just stinks, can't we get a storm like we used too? And Frank liking that your thinking 3-6 area wide, thats high for your initial thoughts, heres to hoping you are right or it even over performs but again as I said in banter I have no expectations until it is snowing.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16264
Reputation : 87
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:58 am

@jmanley32 wrote:Woah starting with 75% right off the bat!  If you read banter you will see my new way of taking any possible storms.  Am not getting excited and if it turns to rain which models are showing that just stinks, can't we get a storm like we used too? And Frank liking that your thinking 3-6 area wide, thats high for your initial thoughts, heres to hoping you are right or it even over performs but again as I said in banter I have no expectations until it is snowing.

Also don't forget Franks confidence index is just for the probability of at least an inch of snow in Central Park. At this stage a 75% confidence for that meager amount seems likely.

WTS I do like his initial thoughts of 3-6 area wide with more N & W. Right now in this setup I'd sign for that.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6302
Reputation : 217
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:08 am

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@jmanley32 wrote:Woah starting with 75% right off the bat!  If you read banter you will see my new way of taking any possible storms.  Am not getting excited and if it turns to rain which models are showing that just stinks, can't we get a storm like we used too? And Frank liking that your thinking 3-6 area wide, thats high for your initial thoughts, heres to hoping you are right or it even over performs but again as I said in banter I have no expectations until it is snowing.

Also don't forget Franks confidence index is just for the probability of at least an inch of snow in Central Park. At this stage a 75% confidence for that meager amount seems likely.

WTS I do like his initial thoughts of 3-6 area wide with more N & W. Right now in this setup I'd sign for that.
Absolutely, 3-6 I won't be upset that you get 6+, I just want to see some snow this year!! AHHHH LOL
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16264
Reputation : 87
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:46 am

12z GFS snow map

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gfs_asnow_neus_24

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18886
Reputation : 281
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:46 am

And of course it's due to come in for our meetup Saturday- possible drinking game there - a shot for every inch that falls in the city???? drunken Looks like I'm taking the train in!

_________________
Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      5.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
Dunnzoo
Dunnzoo
Senior Enthusiast - Mod
Senior Enthusiast - Mod

Posts : 4062
Reputation : 50
Join date : 2013-01-11
Age : 58
Location : Westwood, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:48 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:And of course it's due to come in for our meetup Saturday- possible drinking game there - a shot for every inch that falls in the city????  drunken    Looks like I'm taking the train in!

Check our back channel thread - may need to reschedule. But let's make a decision on Wednesday.


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18886
Reputation : 281
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:49 am

All major models show a significant front-end thump of snow before changeover to rain. To reiterate, greatest threat for heavy snowfall is N&W of NYC, while Jersey Shore and LI will once again struggle with boundary temps mid-way thru the storm event.

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18886
Reputation : 281
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:52 am

Canadian does a good job showing the changeover process.

Saturday morning - early afternoon we are all snow

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.thumb.png.a0e6f1c435f620c47406bef53b0c1baa

Saturday mid/late afternoon into night changeover to rain occurs in the aforementioned areas

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.thumb.png.402a419e12528bec7ede11a0de228447

How do you avoid a changeover? By a weaker primary low that does not fully cut to our west, but instead transfers energy to a secondary low off the coast. However, our NAO is projected to be POSITIVE not NEGATIVE for this event, so a transfer is unlikely or it will happen too late for our area to benefit (New England would get most).

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 18886
Reputation : 281
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 27
Location : Morris Plain, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 13, 2020 12:45 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian does a good job showing the changeover process.

Saturday morning - early afternoon we are all snow

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.thumb.png.a0e6f1c435f620c47406bef53b0c1baa

Saturday mid/late afternoon into night changeover to rain occurs in the aforementioned areas

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.thumb.png.402a419e12528bec7ede11a0de228447

How do you avoid a changeover? By a weaker primary low that does not fully cut to our west, but instead transfers energy to a secondary low off the coast. However, our NAO is projected to be POSITIVE not NEGATIVE for this event, so a transfer is unlikely or it will happen too late for our area to benefit (New England would get most).

Can't see any of the maps you posted in your last two post Frank.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6302
Reputation : 217
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:01 pm

@Dunnzoo wrote:And of course it's due to come in for our meetup Saturday- possible drinking game there - a shot for every inch that falls in the city????  drunken    Looks like I'm taking the train in!

If we get that 3 to 6 and the pattern changes to cold and snowy, I nominate Janet for Queen of NJ Strong for making it all happen scheduling the meet up event for this Saturday!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6826
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 69
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:02 pm

@CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian does a good job showing the changeover process.

Saturday morning - early afternoon we are all snow

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.thumb.png.a0e6f1c435f620c47406bef53b0c1baa

Saturday mid/late afternoon into night changeover to rain occurs in the aforementioned areas

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.thumb.png.402a419e12528bec7ede11a0de228447

How do you avoid a changeover? By a weaker primary low that does not fully cut to our west, but instead transfers energy to a secondary low off the coast. However, our NAO is projected to be POSITIVE not NEGATIVE for this event, so a transfer is unlikely or it will happen too late for our area to benefit (New England would get most).

Can't see any of the maps you posted in your last two post Frank.

Me either Frank.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6826
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 69
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:26 pm

No images showing.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16264
Reputation : 87
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 1:38 pm

It looks like tropicaltidbits is down, if Frank was using that that may be the issue. It is a general 3-6 for most, with a bit more N/W as Frank said.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 16264
Reputation : 87
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 38
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:05 pm

@Frank_Wx wrote:Canadian does a good job showing the changeover process.

Saturday morning - early afternoon we are all snow

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_21.thumb.png.a0e6f1c435f620c47406bef53b0c1baa

Saturday mid/late afternoon into night changeover to rain occurs in the aforementioned areas

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_22.thumb.png.402a419e12528bec7ede11a0de228447

How do you avoid a changeover? By a weaker primary low that does not fully cut to our west, but instead transfers energy to a secondary low off the coast. However, our NAO is projected to be POSITIVE not NEGATIVE for this event, so a transfer is unlikely or it will happen too late for our area to benefit (New England would get most).

A few things against, a few things for. The clipper that scoots by and delivers the cold air for Wed into Thursday actually seems to amplify a weakly negative NAO, albiet east based, as it gains latitude into the N Atlantic as our weekend system sets up. We have to watch this for trends.

I really dont like the strongly amplified MJO in Octane 6 while this system makes its way to the EC nor do I like the last week or so the SOI has been in a positive state. That said, anomalously cold air will be in place and is notoriously under appreciated in the modeling at this lead time so a continued wait and see approach is where Im at. I do worry that the amplitude of the MJO will lead to a trend to a stronger primary to the west of us flooding the mid levels but well see.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
"In weather and in life, theres no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20" (First snow Dec 8th)

WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00" [size=10](First snow Jan 17th)
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25" (First snow Dec 11th)
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85" (First snow Dec 9th)
WINTER 2018/2019 SNOW TOTALS 14.25" (First snow Nov 15th)[/size]
WINTER 2019/2020 SNOW TOTALS 3.85" (First snow Nov 12th)
Nov 12th = trace---Dec 2nd-3rd = 1"---Dec 11th = 2"---Jan 7th = 0.75"
sroc4
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 6404
Reputation : 264
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 13, 2020 2:47 pm

Coast and LI will see a thump from latest guidance and then switch over.
The air mass isn't early Dec but deep Low level Winter arctic cold.
I like what I am seeing - these fly in here faster and move out faster too.
Lots of meetings and teaching today but things are looking good to kick start us into a 30-45 day winter pattern.


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 10568
Reputation : 181
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 50
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by dkodgis on Mon Jan 13, 2020 10:39 pm

Damian: “CP, is it going to snow?”
CP:”I made a few calls.”
dkodgis
dkodgis
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 1039
Reputation : 78
Join date : 2013-12-29

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 13, 2020 11:04 pm

@dkodgis wrote:Damian:  “CP, is it going to snow?”
CP:”I made a few calls.”

lol! lol! lol!

Oh if I only had connections. If I did winters here would make the Tug Hill Plateaus winters seem tame in comparison.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6302
Reputation : 217
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by docstox12 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 5:24 am

@dkodgis wrote:Damian:  “CP, is it going to snow?”
CP:”I made a few calls.”

LOL, looks like NWS got those CP calls, their latest has us all snow for the upcoming event.ATM, that is!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6826
Reputation : 190
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 69
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 6:47 am

Not much change to what Frank has written up. General 3-6" seems like a good call ATTM, lesser as you head to the coast line.

But again, we are still 4+ days out so things trend in either direction. Details matter especially where the best rates setup.

The jet stream would be indicative of best rates on I-81.

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Jet10


heehaw453

Posts : 628
Reputation : 51
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by billg315 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 9:55 am

Here are my Sudden Thoughts and Second Thoughts (RIP Bill Lyon):
A. The temperature profiles on the GFS have trended colder over the past 72 hours for Saturday. A couple days ago I was forecast to approach 40 degrees by Saturday evening. Now I am unlikely to get above 35 degrees (and even that only very briefly at the end of the storm Saturday night). This indicates the strength of the High Pressure and how difficult it will be to scour out the cold air. This bodes well for prolonged front-end thump snows most of the day Saturday.
B. The NAM is still out of range but the 12z has Friday evening temperatures in the low 20s in SNJ and the teens in CNJ/NNJ. If true, temps could be in the teens almost statewide by Saturday morning which would be consistent with what I mentioned in Point A. It will take a long time to warm those temps up.
C. Most of the state is at or below freezing up until almost the end of the storm Saturday evening. The exception is the coast. The 850 freezing line is southeast of most of the state for most of the event. While most areas probably do change to rain before ending -- I think for areas away from the immediate coast that will be "after the damage is done" so to speak in terms of snow accumulations.
D. Frank's 3-6" sounds like a solid guess for most of the state at this point, but with delayed changeover I wouldn't be surprised if areas further North and West hit 7 or 8" out of this.
E. Timing has shifted a bit. Originally looked to start Friday night. Now looks more like snow spreading into the area late morning Saturday and getting heavier during the afternoon and evening before winding down/changing to rain Saturday night. This means Saturday morning may start just cloudy, but most of Saturday afternoon and evening may be very snowy across the area.
Those are my impressions for now.
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 2895
Reputation : 152
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 45
Location : Somerville, NJ

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by heehaw453 on Tue Jan 14, 2020 10:34 am

@billg315 wrote:Here are my Sudden Thoughts and Second Thoughts (RIP Bill Lyon):
A. The temperature profiles on the GFS have trended colder over the past 72 hours for Saturday. A couple days ago I was forecast to approach 40 degrees by Saturday evening. Now I am unlikely to get above 35 degrees (and even that only very briefly at the end of the storm Saturday night). This indicates the strength of the High Pressure and how difficult it will be to scour out the cold air. This bodes well for prolonged front-end thump snows most of the day Saturday.
B. The NAM is still out of range but the 12z has Friday evening temperatures in the low 20s in SNJ and the teens in CNJ/NNJ. If true, temps could be in the teens almost statewide by Saturday morning which would be consistent with what I mentioned in Point A. It will take a long time to warm those temps up.
C. Most of the state is at or below freezing up until almost the end of the storm Saturday evening. The exception is the coast. The 850 freezing line is southeast of most of the state for most of the event. While most areas probably do change to rain before ending -- I think for areas away from the immediate coast that will be "after the damage is done" so to speak in terms of snow accumulations.
D. Frank's 3-6" sounds like a solid guess for most of the state at this point, but with delayed changeover I wouldn't be surprised if areas further North and West hit 7 or 8" out of this.
E. Timing has shifted a bit. Originally looked to start Friday night. Now looks more like snow spreading into the area late morning Saturday and getting heavier during the afternoon and evening before winding down/changing to rain Saturday night. This means Saturday morning may start just cloudy, but most of Saturday afternoon and evening may be very snowy across the area.
Those are my impressions for now.

Nice write up. I think though just as important as temps will be where the best forcing occurs. The H7 strong jet stream winds (70 knots+) will cause lift and where that sets up determines who gets 6". If that sets up further west then we will struggle to get 3 inches even NW of 95. That is a rather fine detail that we just don't know yet. All IMHO of course.

heehaw453

Posts : 628
Reputation : 51
Join date : 2014-01-20
Location : Bedminster Township, PA

Back to top Go down

January 18th Winter Storm Looms Empty Re: January 18th Winter Storm Looms

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 14, 2020 12:29 pm

@heehaw453 wrote:
@billg315 wrote:Here are my Sudden Thoughts and Second Thoughts (RIP Bill Lyon):
A. The temperature profiles on the GFS have trended colder over the past 72 hours for Saturday. A couple days ago I was forecast to approach 40 degrees by Saturday evening. Now I am unlikely to get above 35 degrees (and even that only very briefly at the end of the storm Saturday night). This indicates the strength of the High Pressure and how difficult it will be to scour out the cold air. This bodes well for prolonged front-end thump snows most of the day Saturday.
B. The NAM is still out of range but the 12z has Friday evening temperatures in the low 20s in SNJ and the teens in CNJ/NNJ. If true, temps could be in the teens almost statewide by Saturday morning which would be consistent with what I mentioned in Point A. It will take a long time to warm those temps up.
C. Most of the state is at or below freezing up until almost the end of the storm Saturday evening. The exception is the coast. The 850 freezing line is southeast of most of the state for most of the event. While most areas probably do change to rain before ending -- I think for areas away from the immediate coast that will be "after the damage is done" so to speak in terms of snow accumulations.
D. Frank's 3-6" sounds like a solid guess for most of the state at this point, but with delayed changeover I wouldn't be surprised if areas further North and West hit 7 or 8" out of this.
E. Timing has shifted a bit. Originally looked to start Friday night. Now looks more like snow spreading into the area late morning Saturday and getting heavier during the afternoon and evening before winding down/changing to rain Saturday night. This means Saturday morning may start just cloudy, but most of Saturday afternoon and evening may be very snowy across the area.
Those are my impressions for now.

Nice write up.  I think though just as important as temps will be where the best forcing occurs.  The H7 strong jet stream winds (70 knots+) will cause lift and where that sets up determines who gets 6".  If that sets up further west then we will struggle to get 3 inches even NW of 95.  That is a rather fine detail that we just don't know yet.  All IMHO of course.

And the surface low seems to drift further and further north on each GFS run. Fankly I'm puzzled it stays as cold as it does with the low that far to our north.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 6302
Reputation : 217
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 99
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 5 1, 2, 3, 4, 5  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum