March 2020 Observations and Discussion

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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:53 am

12z NAM has come around to what the gfs was hinting at the last few days - in fact more bullish. Shows a general 2-5” snowfall Monday morning pretty much everywhere north and west of NYC proper. Temps are marginal for stickage but if it starts before sunrise that may help.
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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:57 am

12z NAM snow map for Monday morning:
March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 B605e010
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Post by frank 638 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:25 am

I hope we get some snow I know it’s not going to last long but at least it will cheer up everybody and snow and cold kills germs

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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:53 am

12z GFS at odds with NAM. Shows brief period of snow before changeover to rain, not more than a coating to an inch. So no clear guidance at this point.
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Post by hyde345 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 2:54 pm

We would have a better shot of some accumulation if it started late Sunday night early Monday morning but not sure if that is going to happen.
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Post by dkodgis on Fri Mar 20, 2020 3:01 pm

My local paper just sent out a notice we are getting 5 inches. I *think* I heard last night over the peepers Doc and CP reading the Ode to Othelia. That could explain the snow
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Post by billg315 on Fri Mar 20, 2020 4:39 pm

18z NAM came slightly further north with the rain/snow line. This primarily keeps accumulating snow north of I-80, whereas the 12z run had accumulating snow down to just below I-78. This run is still more bullish on snow totals than the GFS, showing 4" or so from extreme NW NJ up into the LHV. The track will likely fluctuate north and south on the models for the next 24 hours or so, but the bigger question is how much cold air will be in place to support a longer period of accumulating snow. The GFS seems to say, not so much. The NAM seems to say, it will be there as long as you are well north and west of the low center.
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 7:05 am

6z runs haven’t changed much. NAM still more aggressive than GFS on snow totals north of I-80. Regardless I do think there is a good chance everyone N&W of NYC proper sees some snow around daybreak Monday before many go over to a cold rain. Frankly if I have to be trapped in my house for days, a little snow outside my window - even a couple hours worth - is the least Mother Nature can do.
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Post by hyde345 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:05 pm

I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 type event north of 84 in my area, mostly on grass. It is going to be tough to accumulate on roads with Monday morning start time and higher sun angle. I also see it changing to rain up here too, especially in the valley. Still something to track. What else is there to do?
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Post by Dunnzoo on Sat Mar 21, 2020 12:29 pm

@hyde345 wrote:I'm thinking 1-3/2-4 type event north of 84 in my area, mostly on grass. It is going to be tough to accumulate on roads with Monday morning start time and higher sun angle. I also see it changing to rain up here too, especially in the valley. Still something to track. What else is there to do?

I think some areas may be in for a surprise. It is going to be cold the next few nights, and not many people commuting on the roads so there may be stickage. Some models were running colder, GFS looked like the only one that was warm. We'll see, I'm sure most if not all of us will be home tracking!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:16 pm

0z NAM went back to a snowier solution for NJ. As you can see below the snow that starts around 4 am hangs in at 7 am and still at 10 am over much of northern NJ.
March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 53185b10
March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 85212f10
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Post by billg315 on Sat Mar 21, 2020 10:18 pm

0z NAM snow map for Monday
March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 7efac310
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 2:54 am

@billg315 wrote:0z NAM snow map for Monday
March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 7efac310

NWS not buying that map ATM.Maybe one inch for me in the LHV.Will be pleasantly surprised if they are wrong as I would like to see snow before Spring kicks into high gear.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Mar 22, 2020 7:39 am

The low is pretty close to the coast, although it does bring some cold air in from the north. Close call for sure, hoping to see at least a little white stuff here. Hope everyone is well!

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Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by billg315 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:14 am

@Dunnzoo wrote:The low is pretty close to the coast, although it does bring some cold air in from the north. Close call for sure, hoping to see at least a little white stuff here. Hope everyone is well!

Definitely. It is producing cold air but it’s a little too far north and west for most people on here to get a decent snow. If it would just shift about 50-75 miles south and east this would be a good April snow event for most. Either way, I think there will be a period of snow at daybreak for those N and west of the city. The further north and west you go (and higher elevation) the better chance some of it accumulates. I do hope to see it snowing here for at least a couple hours tomorrow AM.
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Post by docstox12 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:19 am

@billg315 wrote:
@Dunnzoo wrote:The low is pretty close to the coast, although it does bring some cold air in from the north. Close call for sure, hoping to see at least a little white stuff here. Hope everyone is well!

Definitely. It is producing cold air but it’s a little too far north and west for most people on here to get a decent snow. If it would just shift about 50-75 miles south and east this would be a good April snow event for most. Either way, I think there will be a period of snow at daybreak for those N and west of the city. The further north and west you go (and higher elevation) the better chance some of it accumulates. I do hope to see it snowing here for at least a couple hours tomorrow AM.

Just a little N and W of me ,Monticello, they have 6 inches forecast.Damian, Jimv and Hyde should see some snow out of this.They upped me to 1-2 from maybe 1 in the LHV.
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Post by heehaw453 on Sun Mar 22, 2020 8:24 am

Where you'll get the 4+" that sticks on paved surfaces requires > 1500' elevation IMO.  Surface temps are going to be in mid 30's as heavier stuff moves in at lower elevation. So Hunter Mountain NY, Poconos, Berkshires, Southern VT an NH should do fine.  Definitely could see a few inches for HV/NW NJ on colder surfaces.

You have rapidly retreating HP due to a lack of blocking and positive NAM.  This enables a progressive flow and allows for WAA to more easily overwhelm the mid-levels with warm air (sound familiar?).  You can see the wind barbs coming straight out of the south at 5000 feet as precip starts to move in because the HP is hightailing it out of Quebec.  If there was anything keeping that HP anchored in Quebec, you'd be talking about 6"+ CNJ on north.

Huge range of snowfall projections among the models.  GFS is a weaker system than what other guidance is showing and if that is indeed the case this would be a non event even for those aforementioned areas.  GFS does seem to be on its own with that idea.

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:11 am

36* with snow here but already seems to be mixing with rain. Nothing sticking due to temps. On radar rain/snow line seems to have advance from around I-195 in Mercer/Monmouth at 4:30 to I-78 presently.
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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:15 am

Radar showing current rain/snow line:March 2020 Observations and Discussion - Page 3 4e7d0e10
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Post by dkodgis on Mon Mar 23, 2020 5:48 am

Snowing here at 5:30 am. 32 degrees. I am surprised given the temp. Must be colder upstairs. Forsythia, Maple leaves were just coming out. Daffodils, Crocus and snapping turtles have been out. Even the local bear has been roaming. But I have seen my share of snowfall around this time. It will melt witj the changeover to rain which also surprisingly is forecast up here to be around 5. Temp is forecast 32, 32, 32, etc. which I would be surprised to see every hour, all in a row, up to dinner time. Hey everyone, can we start a dinner recipe thread? I am running out of ideas with everyone home. Very Happy
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Post by docstox12 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:07 am

Light snow, 33 degrees.NWS says maybe an inch here.Will be nice to see a few hours of snow coming down.Just N and W of me is WWW for 6 inches.
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Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:14 am

34.3 * and snowing big wet flakes! Temp has dropped, was at 36* an hour or so ago.

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Janet

Snowfall winter of 2019-2020      8.5"

Snowfall winter of 2018-2019     25.1"
Snowfall winter of 2017-2018     51.9"
Snowfall winter of 2016-2017     45.6"
Snowfall winter of 2015-2016     29.5"
Snowfall winter of 2014-2015     50.55"
Snowfall winter of 2013-2014     66.5"
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Post by brownie on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:55 am

Snowing here!  Teeny tiny flakes, looks like a mix of some sort. Dusting on the grass, deck, and cars.  Pretty!

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Post by billg315 on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:56 am

Rain/Snow line hasn’t moved much at all last hour and a half. Janet’s report of the temp dropping makes sense as it appears some colder air is working in as the system strengthens as I went to rain then back to a mix.

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:59 am

30.6° moderate snow, grass getting white and nothing on the roads and driveway.

With everything going on right now this is a nice diversion.
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