2021 Tropical Season

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021

amugs wrote:

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021

I trust this guy more than many others,. This is the owner for tropical tidbits if some did not know. Well the Euro scored on Sandy, will he be dethroned for this one? Check out 5pm NHC cone, now has the west turn in the cone shape. NHC looks to be buying that possibility and now has all the area in some chance of TS force winds.  Cape cod is really up there now with 50-60% chance from yesterday it was 5%.  I am sure the media will blow this up soon.

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021

I trust this guy more than many others,. This is the owner for tropical tidbits if some did not know. Well the Euro scored on Sandy, will he be dethroned for this one? Check out 5pm NHC cone, now has the west turn in the cone shape. NHC looks to be buying that possibility and now has all the area in some chance of TS force winds.  Cape cod is really up there now with 50-60% chance from yesterday it was 5%.  I am sure the media will blow this up soon.

Hey………what are we; chopped liver?? Lmaooo

Pressure now down to 995mb. So far, GFS is on top of this……

I guess it’s not a good idea to make our traditional tomato sauce this sun then lol . How bad will it be for our area in nyc

frank 638 wrote:I guess it’s not a good idea to make our traditional tomato sauce this sun then lol . How bad will it be for our area in nyc

Still too soon Frank.  Everything is still on the table, from direct Trop storm/hurricane impacts to still skirting the area with nothing more than gusty winds.  Between now and Friday morning will be a very critical time in the evolution of this track.

There is def no more denying the potential impacts of this system; especially eastern sections of S New England, and we all need to cont to monitor and perhaps begin to think about the plan IF worst case scenario plays out.  I still think that even though the odds have shifted away from this soln a complete miss is still absolutely on the table.  To be honest as much as I love me a good storm, given where I live Id be absolutely fine with a near miss.  I have way too much going on right now to have to deal with downed trees and no power.  

Frank do you have the tomatoes already?  Are you doing the traditional grow your own and make your own sauce?  If so that's fantastic Paison!

Speaking of Paisons Franky P!!! Good to hear from you!!

GFS says hold my beer


NHC saying the cone is shifting west

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021

I trust this guy more than many others,. This is the owner for tropical tidbits if some did not know. Well the Euro scored on Sandy, will he be dethroned for this one? Check out 5pm NHC cone, now has the west turn in the cone shape. NHC looks to be buying that possibility and now has all the area in some chance of TS force winds.  Cape cod is really up there now with 50-60% chance from yesterday it was 5%.  I am sure the media will blow this up soon.

Hey………what are we; chopped liver?? Lmaooo

Rb brother you have been on this since last week kudos to yuo my man, that's why yuo hold a degree in this science field. Bring the Big H home.

Sroc We go to Arthur Avenue in the Bronx and we pick up four or five bushes of plum tomatoes It’s a long process but it is worth it we make about 65 to 70 jars.I have a small garden we have tomatoes basil Italian Zucchini and pumpkin and grapes.
I hope we do not get a direct impact from the storm last year I lost power for three days and it was not fun especially when it’s hot and humid I hope the storm either Weakens .
As you said we are still ways out and anything could change and let’s hope this thing goes out to see.
I hope everything‘s going well with you and your family and you’re having a great summer and good to hear from you

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:

amugs wrote:

#Henri is unfortunately a case where ECMWF guidance is not useful. It does not assimilate synthetic observations of TC intensity, so it thinks Henri is much too weak at 1013 hPa. Models like HWRF, GFS, and COAMPS-TC should perform better here. pic.twitter.com/l0axoOWu47

— Dr. Levi Cowan (@TropicalTidbits) August 18, 2021

I trust this guy more than many others,. This is the owner for tropical tidbits if some did not know. Well the Euro scored on Sandy, will he be dethroned for this one? Check out 5pm NHC cone, now has the west turn in the cone shape. NHC looks to be buying that possibility and now has all the area in some chance of TS force winds.  Cape cod is really up there now with 50-60% chance from yesterday it was 5%.  I am sure the media will blow this up soon.

Hey………what are we; chopped liver?? Lmaooo

absolutely not. And Levi is basically agree with you that euro isn't handle this right. It isn't even initializing correctly. Even Scott has changed his tune more towards you. You may nail this man and it won't be good. And really we are talking not much time like 4 days. And the hwrf has a similar path to hrs. Do you still think even further trends west are possible putting the center around NYC area? What's the western extent and does to get back to the east definenlty happen? That would be a double punch for new england

Mugsy and Jman, I was only trying to lighten the mood a little bit, that’s all haha

Jman, I do think NYC has to worry. I think the overall target zone would be from Cape May to Cape Cod, in my opinion, so there’s definitely room for this to come west.

Also, not sure where the NHC 8pm advisory is; I guess they’re just holding it until 03z when the have some 00z guidance to work with? I’m not sure. 00z hurricane models held serve with an average of a Benchmark track, though they tamped down the intensity from earlier and max out at a mid-high grade category 1. The 18z EPS, though, are highly concerning.

NAM really strengthens Henri in the short term at 0z. Going to be an interesting run for the coast on this one

Im waiting to see what 00z does with the Euro suite, but that that is as close to being a full cave as you’ll ever see without me calling it one aha only because it’s 18z though! Lmao

rb924119 wrote:Im waiting to see what 00z does with the Euro suite, but that that is as close to being a full cave as you’ll ever see without me calling it one aha only because it’s 18z though! Lmao

Wow your not kidding....18z GFS did go more east but as you said the operationals don't mean a lot at this point. What concerns me is IF he does head in we may not have a lot of prep time and i think intensity could surprise us, but like Levi said in his video if he is slow he will weaken sig once croses over the warm water into our cooler waters.

Should we make a seperate thread for Henri at this pt? Could be one we want to be easily gotten to archive? Even if he doesn't hit its a unusual setup.

Okay rb explain the 00z NAM plz, at 18z it was a weak 1004mb falling apart 00z its a massive 972mb cat 2?!!

jmanley32 wrote:Okay rb explain the 00z NAM plz, at 18z it was a weak 1004mb falling apart 00z its a massive 972mb cat 2?!!

Wow. I've just began watching the buzz. Been busy with other aspects of life. Really hoping its OTS. I love exciting weather, but the potential damage and pain is not good. Fingers crossed. Thanks everyone for tracking. Be safe.

Wow, NHC shifted WAYYY east, I am surprised.  Took almost all of NE out as fast as they put them in. They no longer buying the western track they actually have it taking a recurve ots now. Wonder what prompted such a abrupt change.

jmanley32 wrote:Okay rb explain the 00z NAM plz, at 18z it was a weak 1004mb falling apart 00z its a massive 972mb cat 2?!!

It’s plausible. Considering it is strengthening when guidance suggested it wouldn’t (now up to 70 mph as of 03z update), once conditions improve tomorrow accelerated strengthening only makes sense. To what degree? I’m not sure, but it wouldn’t surprise me, especially when it gets the injection of mid-latitude energy from the trough.

jmanley32 wrote:Wow, NHC shifted WAYYY east, I am surprised.  Took almost all of NE out as fast as they put them in. They no longer buying the western track they actually have it taking a recurve ots now.  Wonder what prompted such a abrupt change.

Per usually, they’re just following the hurricane guidance exclusively……..

rb924119 wrote:

jmanley32 wrote:Wow, NHC shifted WAYYY east, I am surprised.  Took almost all of NE out as fast as they put them in. They no longer buying the western track they actually have it taking a recurve ots now.  Wonder what prompted such a abrupt change.

Per usually, they’re just following the hurricane guidance exclusively……..

right of course. Irony understand that at all. They are the pros a should be better TN that.

weatherwatchermom wrote:Lonnie says needs to be watched, but tracking east
What is your take rb

Standing by the map I posted earlier in this thread for now. The ideas there have gotten us this far, so with 3.5 days to go, and only ~150 miles separating me from the current consensus, I’m standing firm right now, especially when this thing is showing potential of under-modeled intensity/corresponding feedbacks lol