2023 Atlantic Tropics season

by **jmanley32** Mon Jun 19, 2023 10:40 am

Hey all, been busy but since no one else started a tropics thread thought I would since we have a rather rare occurrence starting the year (we already had our A storm). Not one but two (one on verge of becoming a TD or TS) coming off of Africa which is not our usual area for development in June. In fact I honestly cannot remember the last time I saw this area active in June. Levi has a good video out on why this first wave has a good shot of development due to low shear and warmer than usual waters.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RgnDS9PHmKQ&t=3s

What are others thoughts, busy season? High impact to US season? Threats up this way this year? Lets get the discussion going! We track.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season Two_at17

by **jmanley32** Mon Jun 19, 2023 11:09 am

And just that quick we have TD 3 poised to be a threat to the antilles as a strong TS or hurricane by the weekend

.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season 14583210

by **sroc4** Mon Jun 19, 2023 12:49 pm

Well done starting the thread Jon. Probably nothing to get excited about by us for now, but fire up the tropics tracking.

If you look ahead at the 500mb maps there is a decent ridge to our north and N Atlantic possibly blocking things up a bit, and trough near the EC make for a possible scenario to turn up and maybe into the EC. Loooooonnngggg was to go for that though

by **weatherwatchermom** Mon Jun 19, 2023 4:32 pm

sroc4 wrote:Well done starting the thread Jon. Probably nothing to get excited about by us for now, but fire up the tropics tracking.

If you look ahead at the 500mb maps there is a decent ridge to our north and N Atlantic possibly blocking things up a bit, and trough near the EC make for a possible scenario to turn up and maybe into the EC. Loooooonnngggg was to go for that though

I hope so! lol we are traveling down the coast this year on vacation... Very Happy

by **jmanley32** Mon Jun 19, 2023 6:48 pm

sroc4 wrote:Well done starting the thread Jon. Probably nothing to get excited about by us for now, but fire up the tropics tracking.

If you look ahead at the 500mb maps there is a decent ridge to our north and N Atlantic possibly blocking things up a bit, and trough near the EC make for a possible scenario to turn up and maybe into the EC. Loooooonnngggg was to go for that though

No this one models are showing curve OTS, though NHC wants to take now Bert well sough of PR, we will see what happens. But it is surprising the Cape Verde area is so active.

by **sroc4** Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:03 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:Well done starting the thread Jon. Probably nothing to get excited about by us for now, but fire up the tropics tracking.

If you look ahead at the 500mb maps there is a decent ridge to our north and N Atlantic possibly blocking things up a bit, and trough near the EC make for a possible scenario to turn up and maybe into the EC. Loooooonnngggg was to go for that though
No this one models are showing curve OTS, though NHC wants to take now Bert well sough of PR, we will see what happens. But it is surprising the Cape Verde area is so active.

Not that surprising given how warm the water is.

by **GreyBeard** Wed Jul 26, 2023 1:44 pm

Was just reading an article saying the water temperature off the Florida Keys may have set a world record of 101.1°, surpassing the 99.7° record in the Persian Gulf. One can only wonder how that would energize any hurricane entering those waters once developments gets more active. Heat has been relentless in south Florida even by their standards.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/1011-degrees-water-temperatures-off-florida-keys-among-hottest-in-the-world/ar-AA1elFR6?ocid=socialshare

Coral reef is taking it on the chin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/100-degree-bay-temperatures-near-the-florida-keys-a-new-world-record/vi-fGFaChJu7YSa/A?vid=MUwgUhjkKD4&provider=yt&ocid=socialshare

by **docstox12** Wed Jul 26, 2023 2:58 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Was just reading an article saying the water temperature off the Florida Keys may have set a world record of 101.1°, surpassing the 99.7° record in the Persian Gulf. One can only wonder how that would energize any hurricane entering those waters once developments gets more actve. Heat has been relentless in south Florida even by their standards.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/1011-degrees-water-temperatures-off-florida-keys-among-hottest-in-the-world/ar-AA1elFR6?ocid=socialshare

Yes, was just going to mention that, Greybeard ,when Jon asked what we think of the upcoming season.That sure is a hot tub off Florida.Has to energize anything that comes that way.Hope the waters will stay warm to blow up winter storms, hopefully Miller A's right up the coast!

by **amugs** Mon Jul 31, 2023 9:35 am

Wow they have the studies proving the sun's solar flare activity directly linked to Tropical Cyclones. Amazing.

by **amugs** Sat Aug 05, 2023 9:54 pm

Tropics are dead. Nothing to see or even expect at this point. Nino killing this season.

by **sroc4** Fri Aug 11, 2023 5:12 pm

Hmmm

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-releases-updated-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

by **GreyBeard** Fri Aug 11, 2023 8:14 pm

amugs wrote:Tropics are dead. Nothing to see or even expect at this point. Nino killing this season.

I wouldn't be writing off the season just yet Mugsy. Not even in peak season yet and seeing a lot of talk about above average water temps. overriding any Nino effects.

sroc4 wrote:Hmmm

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-releases-updated-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

HMM indeed Scott. Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks for sure. Initial assessment was made back in May, but just reassessed yesterday. Ocean temps 5° above average will be significant factor IMO. It only takes one Cat 4 or 5 storm making landfall to make it a memorable season.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/this-year-s-hurricane-season-could-be-brutal/ar-AA1f96c6?ocid=socialshare&cvid=0352b8515f18445f832c4b7397a68d6a&ei=22

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:39 am

GreyBeard wrote:Was just reading an article saying the water temperature off the Florida Keys may have set a world record of 101.1°, surpassing the 99.7° record in the Persian Gulf. One can only wonder how that would energize any hurricane entering those waters once developments gets more active. Heat has been relentless in south Florida even by their standards.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/1011-degrees-water-temperatures-off-florida-keys-among-hottest-in-the-world/ar-AA1elFR6?ocid=socialshare

Coral reef is taking it on the chin.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/video/news/100-degree-bay-temperatures-near-the-florida-keys-a-new-world-record/vi-fGFaChJu7YSa/A?vid=MUwgUhjkKD4&provider=yt&ocid=socialshare

While the temperature is absolutely remarkable, I don’t think it’s unexpected, as it’s a combined effect between the persistent heat/ridging and downwelling thanks to persistent onshore (southwesterly flow). In this particular area, the water is also shallow, and as soon as the wind switched direction and came from the north-northeast, the temperature dropped dramatically as cooler water was upwelled. This also leads me to believe that it would have very little, if any, impact on a tropical cyclone, as the water would be upwelled and cooled very quickly.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:45 am

GreyBeard wrote:
amugs wrote:Tropics are dead. Nothing to see or even expect at this point. Nino killing this season.

I wouldn't be writing off the season just yet Mugsy. Not even in peak season yet and seeing a lot of talk about above average water temps. overriding any Nino effects.

sroc4 wrote:Hmmm

https://www.nesdis.noaa.gov/news/noaa-releases-updated-2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

HMM indeed Scott. Will be interesting to see what happens in the coming weeks for sure. Initial assessment was made back in May, but just reassessed yesterday. Ocean temps 5° above average will be significant factor IMO. It only takes one Cat 4 or 5 storm making landfall to make it a memorable season.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/this-year-s-hurricane-season-could-be-brutal/ar-AA1f96c6?ocid=socialshare&cvid=0352b8515f18445f832c4b7397a68d6a&ei=22

Warm water is only a singular factor among a plethora of others. One could argue that with the Atlantic as warm as it is, we have already been in “peak season” for quite some time when it comes to comparing actual water temperatures to climatology. Why have we only seen very little activity so far?

by **GreyBeard** Sat Aug 12, 2023 11:20 am

rb924119 wrote:

While the temperature is absolutely remarkable, I don’t think it’s unexpected, as it’s a combined effect between the persistent heat/ridging and downwelling thanks to persistent onshore (southwesterly flow). In this particular area, the water is also shallow, and as soon as the wind switched direction and came from the north-northeast, the temperature dropped dramatically as cooler water was upwelled. This also leads me to believe that it would have very little, if any, impact on a tropical cyclone, as the water would be upwelled and cooled very quickly.

I am strictly an amateur basing my observations on articles I have come across. I don't think it was "expected" that water temperatures would be record setting. As to a hurricane entering said waters wouldn't that give it the ability to rapidly intensify as opposed to having very little, if any impact? NOAA upped the ante for a reason. Writing off the season at this stage is like saying winter is over in mid December because we haven't had any snow yet. Still a long way to go before I'd stick a fork in it. I guess we agree to disagree.
Just to be clear, I am not hoping for a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane to make landfall by any means. If no hurricanes formed for the rest of the season, I'd be good with that, time will tell.

by **rb924119** Sat Aug 12, 2023 6:15 pm

GreyBeard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:

While the temperature is absolutely remarkable, I don’t think it’s unexpected, as it’s a combined effect between the persistent heat/ridging and downwelling thanks to persistent onshore (southwesterly flow). In this particular area, the water is also shallow, and as soon as the wind switched direction and came from the north-northeast, the temperature dropped dramatically as cooler water was upwelled. This also leads me to believe that it would have very little, if any, impact on a tropical cyclone, as the water would be upwelled and cooled very quickly.

I am strictly an amateur basing my observations on articles I have come across. I don't think it was "expected" that water temperatures would be record setting. As to a hurricane entering said waters wouldn't that give it the ability to rapidly intensify as opposed to having very little, if any impact? NOAA upped the ante for a reason. Writing off the season at this stage is like saying winter is over in mid December because we haven't had any snow yet. Still a long way to go before I'd stick a fork in it. I guess we agree to disagree.
Just to be clear, I am not hoping for a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane to make landfall by any means. If no hurricanes formed for the rest of the season, I'd be good with that, time will tell.

Hey, GreyBeard, I’m not at all knocking you, just discussing Smile

maybe I didn’t put my thoughts into words as well as I thought I did haha I’m not saying that the record-breaking warmth of the water in that area was expected by anybody. It’s record-breaking for a reason - it’s an extremely rare occurrence. What I meant was that given the atmospheric setup, it’s not surprising that such warmth developed. For example, the anomalous ridging that developed across the southwest was advertising the high temperatures there and the possibility that some records would be challenged. If you build it, it will come.

Regarding the impact of the warmth on hurricane intensification, it’s not as straightforward as extremely warm water = super fuel for hurricanes. Yes, that is generally the rule, but there are factors that determine the actual effect of that warmth. For example, depth of warm water is hugely important. In this case, the water in that specific area is very shallow. So even though it’s insanely warm, the amount of energy that it has to offer a developing or strengthening hurricane relative to the energy of the hurricane itself would be minimal. The deeper that warm water is, though, the greater the impact it can have because it has more energy to offer. Secondly, the shallowness of it makes it easier to upwell colder water much more quickly than if the water was deep. And in that particular region, no matter which direction the hurricane would come from, in order for it to have the center pass over the water there, it would be upwelling cooler water well in advance of the storm’s main circulation because of the north-northeasterly to southeasterly range of wind flow associated with that quadrant of the storm. So, any stored energy from the highly anomalous warmth would be quickly removed before the storm could ever realize whatever potential it had to gain.

Third, I’m not writing this season off AT ALL. I’m not quite sure why you have that impression, but I’m definitely well aware of the potential that exists, specifically for rapid development west of 60W longitude. However, based on what I’m seeing, I do not think that our area specifically has too much to worry about for the foreseeable future. For areas from South Carolina back toward Texas, that’s another story.

Hopefully I was able to clarify my thoughts for you, but if not, let me know!

by **GreyBeard** Sat Aug 12, 2023 8:43 pm

Rb, appreciate your detailed explanation of your observations. I didn't feel that you were knocking me at all and didn't mean to give you that impression.

I'm not really understanding the whole upwelling of colder water concept. If, as you say, the water is very shallow, where would this colder water be coming from? You mention wind direction as a main contributing factor and that it wouldn't matter which direction the hurricane comes from. Couldn't a hurricane just stall or be a really slow mover and continue to pull in that extremely warm water?

I have many family members living in coastal south Florida and I always try to keep an eye on what and if anything is headed their way. As for our area, not having anything to worry about for the foreseeable future is a good thing. Thanks for your contributions and analysis.

by **sroc4** Sat Aug 12, 2023 9:28 pm

GreyBeard wrote:Rb, appreciate your detailed explanation of your observations. I didn't feel that you were knocking me at all and didn't mean to give you that impression.

I'm not really understanding the whole upwelling of colder water concept. If, as you say, the water is very shallow, where would this colder water be coming from? You mention wind direction as a main contributing factor and that it wouldn't matter which direction the hurricane comes from. Couldn't a hurricane just stall or be a really slow mover and continue to pull in that extremely warm water?

I have many family members living in coastal south Florida and I always try to keep an eye on what and if anything is headed their way. As for our area, not having anything to worry about for the foreseeable future is a good thing. Thanks for your contributions and analysis.

Pretty good explanation.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/facts/upwelling.html

by **GreyBeard** Sat Aug 12, 2023 9:45 pm

sroc, I understand the concept. The point I was trying to make was that if the water was shallow as rb suggests, there would be no deep water to draw up, ie. it would all be warm,no?

by Frozen.9 Sun Aug 13, 2023 3:08 am

GreyBeard wrote:
rb924119 wrote:

While the temperature is absolutely remarkable, I don’t think it’s unexpected, as it’s a combined effect between the persistent heat/ridging and downwelling thanks to persistent onshore (southwesterly flow). In this particular area, the water is also shallow, and as soon as the wind switched direction and came from the north-northeast, the temperature dropped dramatically as cooler water was upwelled. This also leads me to believe that it would have very little, if any, impact on a tropical cyclone, as the water would be upwelled and cooled very quickly.

I am strictly an amateur basing my observations on articles I have come across. I don't think it was "expected" that water temperatures would be record setting. As to a hurricane entering said waters wouldn't that give it the ability to rapidly intensify as opposed to having very little, if any impact? NOAA upped the ante for a reason. Writing off the season at this stage is like saying winter is over in mid December because we haven't had any snow yet. Still a long way to go before I'd stick a fork in it. I guess we agree to disagree.
Just to be clear, I am not hoping for a Cat 4 or 5 hurricane to make landfall by any means. If no hurricanes formed for the rest of the season, I'd be good with that, time will tell.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 13, 2023 10:37 am

GreyBeard wrote:Rb, appreciate your detailed explanation of your observations. I didn't feel that you were knocking me at all and didn't mean to give you that impression.

I'm not really understanding the whole upwelling of colder water concept. If, as you say, the water is very shallow, where would this colder water be coming from? You mention wind direction as a main contributing factor and that it wouldn't matter which direction the hurricane comes from. Couldn't a hurricane just stall or be a really slow mover and continue to pull in that extremely warm water?

I have many family members living in coastal south Florida and I always try to keep an eye on what and if anything is headed their way. As for our area, not having anything to worry about for the foreseeable future is a good thing. Thanks for your contributions and analysis.

Ok, good, I’m glad that you didn’t take it that way Smile

So, let’s try this. Pretend that you have oil (representing cooler, more dense water) and vinegar (representing warmer, less dense water) and you dump a whole bunch in a bathtub, enough so that the entire bottom of the tub is completely covered. Obviously, you let them settle so that they can stratify, just as water would, with the oil (cooler water) underneath the vinegar (warmer water). At the back of the tub where it angles up to aid with drainage, that represents the area near Florida that we are talking about. The other end (drain) is the open Gulf of Mexico where it’s deeper. You are 100% correct in that all the water near Florida will be warm to the bottom, or, in our case, that part of the tub will be a thin layer of exclusively vinegar, as the oil (cooler water) would be confined toward the drain on the other end because it’s more dense and seeks the lowest level. Now imagine you take your hand, or a spoon, ladle, etc. and start to sweep that vinegar at the shallow back of the tub (Florida) toward the other end of the tub (deeper Gulf of Mexico) repeatedly. After a few seconds, you will establish a current (net movement) of the vinegar (warm water) away from the shallow end of the tub (Florida). Now, because we are dealing with a fluid in a steady volume (the bathtub = Gulf of Mexico), conservation of mass has to be accounted for, just like with the atmosphere, where if air/water moves from one place to another, it HAS to be replaced by air/water around it. So, if you establish a surface current that is taking the water away from land (the back of the tub), water HAS to come from underneath to replace it. The longer and/or stronger that surface current remains, the stronger the return flow underneath it.

As a result, the return current will get strong enough to begin drawing water from further out into the Gulf of Mexico (the deeper/drain end of the tub). Because it’s significantly deeper, the water is also significantly cooler. Since the return current can only go as far as the land, that’s where the cooler water is then forced to the surface, and then it too follows the surface current back away from land. If this persisted long enough, you would eventually end up with a uniform thermal profile in the water (known as being isothermal), or in our case, a homogenous mixture of oil and vinegar, as the combination of the forced upwelling of the cooler water (oil) toward the surface at the back of the tub (Florida) would constructively interfere with the higher density of the cooler water (oil), thereby enhancing the vertical mixing as the water (oil) accelerates away from land (back of the tub) and gravity becomes a more dominant force than the vertical current closer to shore (the back of the tub).

The exact same would occur with the warm water (vinegar), except in reverse - it would start to rise through the cooler layer above it (oil). Conceptually, this is exactly what a thermal circulation is, and is how you get those puffy cumulus clouds on a nice day. Pockets of warm and cool air vertically mixing, and when a pocket of warm air can rise far enough, the water vapor inside it can cool, condense, and make the cloud.

Tackling the second part of your question, a slow moving or stalled hurricane is its own worse enemy. Not only would the upwelling described above work to cut its energy source, but even under the assumption that there was no upwelling at all, and all of the water around the storm is uniformly warm, the storm is removing the stored potential energy from that water through condensation processes and redistributing it into the atmosphere.

So, in this case, the law of conservation of energy must be observed, whereby energy cannot be created or destroyed, only converted from one form to another. Because a body of water can only store a certain amount of energy (heat), once it’s used up, that’s it. It needs a period of time to “recharge”. That’s why when strong hurricanes move through, you can actually see their “shadow” reflected in the SSTs, because they will be cooler than the surrounding water, since the storm drew the heat (energy) out of the water.

Hopefully this clarifies a bit more, and a shoutout to Scott for posting that link! Great visual!

by **sroc4** Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:12 am

GreyBeard wrote:sroc, I understand the concept. The point I was trying to make was that if the water was shallow as rb suggests, there would be no deep water to draw up, ie. it would all be warm,no?

GreyBeard. This is a great question. And actually with the weather being so damn boring, relatively speaking on a big picture scale, the question and the discussion offers an opportunity to discuss these things which I personally love doing. Anyway lets think about some of this more broadly speaking.

So keep in mind in this case when saying the water was "shallow" this is relative. The Gulf Of Mexico (GOM) has a continental shelf that goes from 300-1500 feet down to 6000-12000 feet quickly when you reach the edge of the shelf. Lets imagine this like a pool with a shallow end, and a deep end. The deep end goes from 10 feet up to a shelf in the shallow end that is 3 feet deep.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcoastalmodeling.rsmas.miami.edu%2F_assets%2Fimages%2Fstatic-images%2F5_gulfofmexico

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fcoastalmodeling.rsmas.miami.edu%2F_assets%2Fimages%2Fstatic-images%2F5_gulfofmexico

Now as you can imaging the shallow end and the deep end of the pool are not independent of one another. They are connected. On the surface it looks like just one body of water; however, its only at the bottom that we realize there are differences. So if we go back to this statement by Ray(Rb):

...the atmospheric setup, it’s not surprising that such warmth developed. For example, the anomalous ridging that developed across the southwest was advertising the high temperatures there and the possibility that some records would be challenged. If you build it, it will come.

What he is saying is that these atmospheric conditions allowed for anomalously warm, stagnant air such that over time its not surprising that both air and sea temps have risen.
Again picture your every day outdoor back yard pool. With this hot stagnant air in place, the heat can build in the pool with the shallow end heating up much more easily. The less agitated the water the easier it is for this to happen. That said the deep end will always have cold water at the bottom at 10feet, relative to the warmth at the top due to the differences of the densities of cold vs warm water. (same concept with cold vs warm air).

Ok so the stage is set. Atmospheric conditions have produced very high heat and a calm body of water such that we have anomalously warm water. Lets look at the actual SSTemps on the surface of the entire pool. In this case the GOM.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season Cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season Cdas-sflux_sst_watl_1

Basin wide you are looking at 31-32*C which is about 87-90*F. This is VERY warm. If we look at a cross section of the pool lets just pretend that the temp range in the shallow end of the pool is 90*F at the very surface, but drops 1* with every foot it drops in depth such that the very bottom of the shallow end is approx 87*. Lets also assume that as we now continue our cross section into the deep end of the pool and the temp also drops 1*F with each additional foot we go down as well. So in the deep end we have about 90* at the surface but 80* at the bottom.

Ok great. Now I want to introduce a new concept:

Ocean Heat Content(OHC).
Ocean heat content is the energy absorbed and stored by oceans. To calculate the ocean heat content, measurements of ocean temperature at many different locations and depths are required. Integrating the areal density of ocean heat over an ocean basin, or entire ocean, gives the total ocean heat content

Now going back to this comment by Ray:

Regarding the impact of the warmth on hurricane intensification, it’s not as straightforward as extremely warm water = super fuel for hurricanes. Yes, that is generally the rule, but there are factors that determine the actual effect of that warmth. For example, depth of warm water is hugely important. In this case, the water in that specific area is very shallow. So even though it’s insanely warm, the amount of energy that it has to offer a developing or strengthening hurricane relative to the energy of the hurricane itself would be minimal.

The OHC is a function of how much energy is available for a hurricane to draw from based on surface AND depth. Here is the current OHC map.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season Ohc_naQG3_ddc

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season Ohc_naQG3_ddc

Notice the highest values, highest potential energy, are over the deepest portions of the GOM despite the fact that the latest surface SST, see image above, show the GOM is for the most part uniformly distributed in its temps. Going back to our pool analogy notice that the OHC seems to decrease as the depth of water decreases. Remember in our analogy above the entire pool between the surface and 3 feet deep regardless of weather we are over the dep end or shallow end is between 90* and 87*F; however, when you look at the OHC the potential energy drops off as we enter shallow water.

Ok lets now circle back around the the discussion about upwelling. Here is another quote from Ray.

Secondly, the shallowness of it makes it easier to upwell colder water much more quickly than if the water was deep. And in that particular region, no matter which direction the hurricane would come from, in order for it to have the center pass over the water there, it would be upwelling cooler water well in advance of the storm’s main circulation because of the north-northeasterly to southeasterly range of wind flow associated with that quadrant of the storm. So, any stored energy from the highly anomalous warmth would be quickly removed before the storm could ever realize whatever potential it had to gain.

Going back to my comment above about how the shallow end and the deep end are not independent of each other but actually connected. And recall the idea that due to the long standing anomalous ridging in the SE has led to anomalously warm stagnant air, which allowed for the GOM to warm the way it has because of long standing stagnate body of water. Lets introduce changing atmospheric conditions that increase winds over some of the pool.

If you introduce multiple industrial strength fans to the shallow end of the pool such that you are now blowing a portion of that surface waters towards the deep end, the water you displace from the surface from the shallow end needs to be replaced. The result is the development of underwater currents. The water displaced at the top has to be replaced by the water beneath it. So in essence the water from the bottom of the deep end of the pool begins to slide up the slope and mix with the warmer upper layers. See image below.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fseos-project.eu%2Foceancurrents%2Fimages%2Fupwelling_north

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season ?u=https%3A%2F%2Fseos-project.eu%2Foceancurrents%2Fimages%2Fupwelling_north

Applying our pool analogy to the GOM if the pattern breaks down such hat we begin to get deeper troughs to move into the SE CONUS or if there is an approaching Tropical system as Ray is pointing out, this will begin to displace surface water such that mixing from the cooler deeper waters will begin as it is drawn up to the surface replacing the displaced surface waters. The more shallow the area the easier and quicker it is to cool the water because the upwelling mixes here first. Ie: comes up from the depths into the shallows then circulates over the surface from there. This concept is why the OHC, potential available energy, is higher over the deeper waters and decreases as you come up the shelf despite the exceptionally warm waters in the shallows and overall equally distributed warm surface SSTemps in the GOM right now.

Now all of this said even if we wanted to simply make a blanket statement that because of how warm the temps are in the GOM it is rocket fuel for any tropical system that makes it over these waters, one MUST keep in mind that SSTemps are only one piece to the puzzle. For instance, if you put rocket fuel into an engine not suitable to run on rocket fuel it still may never take off like a rocket. What I mean by this is we are in an El Nino.

Along the equator of the earth is a large scale circulating air pattern called the Walker Cells. The SST gradients of the oceans along the equator are what ultimately drive these large scale wind patterns that are west to east and east to west in nature depending on where the focuses of rising and sinking air are occurring. In general during El Nino years, ie: anomalously warm Trop Pacific along the equator there is a general tendency to have your large scale upward motion to occur over the warm Trop Pac, only to have the counter balance of sinking air to occur over the Trop Atlantic. This is the sigle strongest reason as to why El Nino hurricanes seasons, on average, tend to be less active than normal with regards to number of storms, intensity, and duration of the storm track.

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season WalkerElNino_2colorSSTA_large

1 - 2023 Atlantic Tropics season WalkerElNino_2colorSSTA_large

As we all know a tropical system is merely an intense form of low pressure. As we also know low pressure has rising air at its center. The stronger and higher into the atmosphere the rising motion occurs, the stronger the low pressure. IF you have a large scale pattern, ie: El Nino Walker Circulation, that has sinking air coming down from the upper levels while you have an area of low pressure trying to develop underneath it what you get is competing forces. As air from the surface ascends the atmosphere the downward motion of the walker cell pushes down in the rising air minimizing the development. Its like throwing a blankets of the fire or closing the flue on your chimney. In many instances closing the flue on the chimney completely ends up putting out the fire completely.

So the idea being posed on this years trop season is can the anomalously warms Atlantic waters over come some of El Ninos hindering properties. Ie: can adding jet fuel to the fire still allow the fire to burn before the blanket snuffs it out or how quickly will the closed flue put out the fire? It appears NOAA is betting on yes. Traditionally the late August, September, and early October time frame is the most active for the African wave train(Tropical waves exiting off the West African coast, headed west).

Either way we should have at least something more exciting to start tracking soon.

Happy Sunday

by **sroc4** Sun Aug 13, 2023 11:16 am

Great Minds Ray....

by **GreyBeard** Sun Aug 13, 2023 1:22 pm

Ray and Scott, thanks for your in depth discussion and explanation. You have certainly helped me better understand some of the dynamics that occur during a hurricane. Both of you are very generous with your time and knowledge, and your willingness to share that is certainly appreciated. You both have obviously taken a good amount of time out of your day to do so. Scott, if I might make a suggestion, perhaps save the posts you both have offered to the weather education thread so they might be preserved and available for all to see long after this tropical season passes. Thanks again guys.

by **rb924119** Sun Aug 13, 2023 8:35 pm

sroc4 wrote:Great Minds Ray....

I like yours better, though lol

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2023 Atlantic Tropics season

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I agree with you 110% no cat 4/5's this yr nor would I like to see one come up the coast....

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