December 2023 Observations and Discussion

I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

heehaw453 wrote:I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

TWC says otherwise as Alex posted in the LR thread LOL!!! They roll over like a Panda playing in a pile of leaves!

Think Near Normal Temps to BN with AN snowfall.

All it takes is one SECS storm (4"-8" variety) and a clipper thrown in and we go over average in many areas.

I like Mid December thorugh the end of the month (into Mid January for a strong winter pattern)for this to occur as far as current model projections are for MJO, EAMT, PV, NINO forecasts.

heehaw453 wrote:I feel this December +2 AN on temps and near average snowfall.  Let's see!

Someone cant wait for December to arrive. LOL

Not much change on my thoughts for 12/5-12/6. It needs to be watched. The s/w interactions at play are complex. The initial s/w could usher in a good thermal profile and become a 50/50 road block. And if (BIG IF) there is a trailing s/w with enough space it could easily intensify due to atlantic blocking and a western ridge and be something to behold.

I'm not hyping this as it all depends on the s/w's which cannot be understood clearly this far out. it may be nothing...

heehaw453 wrote:Not much change on my thoughts for 12/5-12/6. It needs to be watched. The s/w interactions at play are complex. The initial s/w could usher in a good thermal profile and become a 50/50 road block. And if (BIG IF) there is a trailing s/w with enough space it could easily intensify due to atlantic blocking and a western ridge and be something to behold.

I'm not hyping this as it all depends on the s/w's which cannot be understood clearly this far out. it may be nothing...

Its interesting how thus far the GFS wants to focus on that second wave around 5th-6th as the bigger threat with the 4th as a nothing burger but used to set up the second wave in the form of the 50/50; whereas, the Euro wants the first wave around the 4th to be the bigger deal.  Obv this far out it all is nothing ore than something to follow because like you said, if you get the right timing, positioning, and wave spacing either scenario could pan out for some.  I personally still believe it has to be perfect so my money is tracking with nothing too significant in the end for either wave, but by no means is there a zero threat here.  Excited that its early Dec and we are tracking.

This is some serious AN temps in the AO domain as head in December. Usually a good sign in these parts for winter weather due to ridging displacing cold air.

The current temperature is about 12 above the average high is about 12 below.

12z Euro

For next week probably don't have enough wave space between the s/w's as modelled. If the trailing s/w cannot increase heights enough out ahead then the 500mb trough won't go negative and it'll push everything off the coast. I still say it bears watching as this could change as we get closer.

A low of 36 this morning. Could be a nice day today of 56  Where is CP

One hell of el Nino now. 2002 seemed similar at the most general level of course.

2023


2002

Mid month phase 8

Sigh. Tomorrow plenty of moisture. Not enough cold air. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride

If we don't get lucky with snowfall next week then this most likely gets passed for many folks and some are already passed their average first snowfall. I'd have to believe LHV usually sees measurable snowfall by latter part of November. I guess some folks got a bit so far but probably very localized...

dkodgis wrote:Sigh. Tomorrow plenty of moisture. Not enough cold air. Always the bridesmaid and never the bride

43, cloudy, calm wind.
Had periods of heavy rain today.
Your right, Damian.The moisture has been cooperating since October and we have had cold air.I suspect these storms are a bit west of us and dragging in warm air.Not liking that at all and hope that pattern changes soon.

43* and rainy
.67" today and .95" in 24 hrs here.

UHI effect much??

If this energy doesn't phase over the Miss Valley as outlined in teh circles and stays seperated then we may see the lead energy travel to the coast, it would be snows for the interior. It is in sparse ROAB region off the Aluetians. The time we don't want a phase it happens and when we do we are off by hours. Just an observations. No one can say definitively this will occur either way at this point in time.





Tom Nizzoil credit for GIF

Some snow tonight? I might stay up for this one. Mid levels appear saturated enough for it to make it to the surface. Elevated areas in Poconos may pick up a quick inch...

Thursday late morning/early afternoon there might enough instability via a disturbance coming through to provide light snows.

mid level air mass will be good. surface marginal and will depend on when precip comes through.

After last year it's kind of nice to see snow not battle mid-level warmth.

The NAM within its range is showing snow to the coast?! In early December?! That by itself is enough to give a winter weather weenie like me Goose Bumps!!!  

Be cool to see if Thursday pans out. I would settle for some mood flakes without rain. Sunday/Mon looks aweful per GFS torrential rain and high winds (I don't have access to wxbell anymore but some other sites show a pretty long duration 6+ hrs of gusts (surface) of 50-75mph verbatim on Euro and GFS) is that overdone I would highly guess yes but it is for sure something to watch. Does bring in some good cold behind it. Don't think theres any way that one can turn into a snow storm. around 19-21st looks like possible coastal, with inland snow?

jmanley32 wrote:Be cool to see if Thursday pans out. I would settle for some mood flakes without rain. Sunday/Mon looks aweful per GFS torrential rain and high winds (I don't have access to wxbell anymore but some other sites show a pretty long duration 6+ hrs of gusts (surface) of 50-75mph verbatim on Euro and GFS) is that overdone I would highly guess yes but it is for sure something to watch. Does bring in some good cold behind it. Don't think theres any way that one can turn into a snow storm. around 19-21st looks like possible coastal, with inland snow?

Great call by Niziol on Monday - Polar energy isnt cathing up to the Southern Vort until its over Johnson City Tenn instead of Mississippi!

Flurries in the air. Second observed snowfall in a week (a coating with the first). What's going on here

A few lazy flakes drifting down in New Hope, 35*