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February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:48 pm

February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0 1620911_683241695060926_890545131_n

Updated my 1st call snow map and will release a final tomorrow, if necessary. What I'm seeing is a dying primary in West Virginia with an attempt of a transfer occurring off the coast. Since the transfer is sloppy, as is h5, it will be a broad area of low pressure with west-southwesterly winds up the immediate coast into NYC and LI and poor dynamics to get the cold air back in. In order for it to snow, you have to have a certain set of criteria work in your favor. Some areas will reach that criteria, others will not. Some will have only a couple of the criteria's working in their favor, and not the others, which is where ICE comes into play.

Areas in orange and light blue have a decent shot of seeing a period of rain in this storm, while areas in purple remain mainly frozen but also think a short period of rain is likely. Blue and red should remain all frozen, possibly all snow.

*THIS MAP DOES NOT INCLUDE ICE*

Ice is always a difficult forecast but since surface temps are expected to remain below normal for most, especially eastern PA into NNJ (including NYC and west LI), up to a quarter of an inch of ice is possible with isolated amounts of up to half an inch! That could be detrimental for driving conditions Wednesday morning. Basically my forecast for ice (low confidence) is .25 to .50 from SE PA to Allentown into west-central NJ to NYC and west LI. Also areas further southwest in south-central PA will see some ice.

This is a tough forecast. And every map I have looked at is different. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. We'll see how this pans out and if models do anything crazy tomorrow.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 04, 2014 5:50 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by nancy-j-s Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:51 pm

Thanks, Frank! Lots to watch this week - appreciate your time and work!
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:55 pm

nancy-j-s wrote:Thanks, Frank!  Lots to watch this week - appreciate your time and work!

Np Nancy! Glad you found your way over to this forum Very Happy

Also, southern CT should be all purple. Not sure what happened there.

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Post by jimv45 Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:55 pm

Expecting a solid foot in the mid hudson valley so map looks good.

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Post by pdubz Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:56 pm

you think 4-8 could sneak into northern Nassau if cold holds for longer?
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:57 pm

pdubz wrote:you think 4-8 could sneak into northern Nassau if cold holds for longer?

Yes

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Post by Yschiff Mon Feb 03, 2014 10:59 pm

Frank could you pot the GFS

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Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:01 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0 1620911_683241695060926_890545131_n

Updated my 1st call snow map and will release a final tomorrow, if necessary. What I'm seeing is a dying primary in West Virginia with an attempt of a transfer occurring off the coast. Since the transfer is sloppy, as is h5, it will be a broad area of low pressure with west-southwesterly winds up the immediate coast into NYC and LI and poor dynamics to get the cold air back in. In order for it to snow, you have to have a certain set of criteria work in your favor. Some areas will reach that criteria, others will not. Some will have only a couple of the criteria's working in their favor, and not the others, which is where ICE comes into play.

Areas in orange and light blue have a decent shot of seeing a period of rain in this storm, while areas in purple remain mainly frozen but also think a short period of rain is likely. Blue and red should remain all frozen, possibly all snow.

*THIS MAP DOES NOT INCLUDE ICE*

Ice is always a difficult forecast but since surface temps are expected to remain below normal for most, especially eastern PA into NNJ (including NYC and west LI), up to a quarter of an inch of ice is possible with isolated amounts of up to half an inch! That could be detrimental for driving conditions Wednesday morning. Basically my forecast for ice (low confidence) is .25 to .50 from SE PA to Allentown into west-central NJ to NYC and west LI. Also areas further southwest in south-central PA will see some ice.

This is a tough forecast. And every map I have looked at is different. Everyone is entitled to their own opinion. We'll see how this pans out and if models do anything crazy tomorrow.


CP, this is where we play catch up with the NJ Shore and LI people.Figuring 8 for me in Mahwah and 12 in the HV according to Frank's map!
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:04 pm

Agree with this map Frank, 0z GGEM holds onto primary longer and everyone besides Sussex county (which goes over to ice) goes over to rain. GFS was a tick northward. All we are going to see is small adjustments in track, anyone hoping for a strong south trend is going to be disappointed IMO. Hudson valley and NEPA will do well, our area will be frozen for a while and then go to rain. I think Mt. Holly and Upton are going to bust in many further south locations, I simply do not see high snow totals as they show in these areas.
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Post by deadrabbit79 Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:08 pm

Wow i am literally on you 4-8/8-12 line in White Plains! Cant wait to see where i fall in this one after getting 7 today! Thanks for all the work you are putting in this week! I cant believe the biggest one could be yet to come!

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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:08 pm

RGEM says...

February 5th Updated Snow Map / Discussions 3.0 1549573_591433907601478_13332776_n

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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 03, 2014 11:15 pm

Was about to post, slightly further north and more rain, freezing rain cut down around the city and LI. Sleet is fairly similar but again a tick north. IMO this is set and it wont trend much more besides small waffling. Thinking my Snow-Ice-Rain forecast is looking event better for I-95 and Wednesday will be a slushy mess. Keep in mind any snow that does fall around I-95 will be quickly compacted by the sleet/freezing rain/rain. To those further north, enjoy your snowfall!
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 04, 2014 5:48 am

My local Mets in Scranton only calling for 1 inch for my area. Hugh ?
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 04, 2014 5:53 am

SNOW MAN wrote:My local Mets in Scranton only calling for 1 inch for my area. Hugh ?

that doesn't make any sense. what are they looking at. you should see at the least 6" and probably closer to 12"
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Post by SNOW MAN Tue Feb 04, 2014 6:12 am

I think Frank should give them a lesson in weather forecasting. Their saying the storm will pass over Pa. which will pull warm air into the area pretty quickly and this will change the snow to a mix, freezing rain and then plain rain.All I can say is thank God for this weather board otherwise I would be listening to these guys. They never even mentioned that we have WSW in a effect. NWS calling for 6-10 inches with some mixing.
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Post by algae888 Tue Feb 04, 2014 6:21 am

SNOW MAN wrote:I think Frank should give them a lesson in weather forecasting. Their saying the storm will pass over Pa. which will pull warm air into the area pretty quickly and this will change the snow to a mix, freezing rain and then plain rain.All I can say is thank God for this weather board otherwise I would be listening to these guys. They never even mentioned that we have WSW in a effect. NWS calling for 6-10 inches with some mixing.

I strongly agree. maybe the local media outlets can use franks forecasts instead of who they use now.
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Post by aiannone Tue Feb 04, 2014 6:45 am

Winter Storm Warning up for me here on the north shore. 4-6" of snow and .25in of ice

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 04, 2014 7:44 am

6 degrees here this morning, 4 inches of fresh snow and more to come, the stage is set.

Time to play catch up.
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Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Feb 04, 2014 7:48 am

9 degrees at my house. Seeing I am just south of Franks 10 -14 line so Im hoping to get about a foot that would be great.

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Post by oldtimer Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:01 am

CP You got your 4" Great you will have your big day tomorrow Nice!!

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:04 am

oldtimer wrote:CP  You got your 4" Great you will have your big day tomorrow  Nice!!

Thanks oldtimer what did you end up with?
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:09 am

Not fair, CP is going to pass me in snowfall after tomorrow.

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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:11 am

Just a quick update: 

Guidance last run trended warmer and Mets and other outlets showing anything more than 2-3 inches in NYC are going to bust with this one, I feel. Even Upton mentions this is a high bust forecast since it's never certain when the warm air filters in. It's all a crap shoot basically, but I feel the Synoptics of the overall pattern support snow changing to rain in the city. We'll see what 12z models have to say...

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:15 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Not fair, CP is going to pass me in snowfall after tomorrow.

Looks that way Frank, my only concern is this upper level warming, I've seen that do strange things to potential accumulations through the years. I don't want an ice storm here, but at 50 miles north of MIdtown manhattan I don't think I can rule it out completely yet.

Do you think my concerns are warranted based on this mornings runs?

btw- great job with yesterdays storm. You beat the Mets again.

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Post by sabamfa Tue Feb 04, 2014 8:18 am

Are you still thinking your map for NNJ holds?

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