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Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:30 pm

I figured since this is under 5 days we can start this thread esp because there seems to be at least the possibility of 2 more potential systems next week in addition to the Sunday Monday threat.  Ill start it off by moving Franks brief blog from the Long Range thread into here.  He did say he would have another blog about it soon, but may not put it out until Friday and Im sure we will all talk about it plenty before then.

One of, if not the most, important player will be how and where an ULL out in the Pac will position itself.  Its position will dictate whether or not it helps to pump the ridge, or flatten the ridge out west which will either aid to slow the flow and amplify the trough and phase the N and S energies or keep things flatter and more progressive leading to the ejection of the Southern energy out ahead of the N energy well to our south and OTS .  Still possible to get a mod event with just the N energy though as we have already seen a few times this winter.  We shall see how it all plays out over the next few days.  

Franks Prev Post:  

Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations Post-40-0-43929200-1391619296

Tomorrow you will read a much more detailed blog, but this is the 12z Canadian 500mb vort map. I circled all the important pieces of energy we have to worry about. You can see how the southern and northern stream energies (2 circled toward the left of the US) remain un-phased, meaning they never combine into 1 to develop a potent storm. This is due to the lack of ridging in the western US. The circle over the northeast is leftover confluence from this past storm, and we need that to move OUT of here, not meander over the region. That's because we want heights along the east coast to rise to allow amplification of the vorts.

The players are there for a big storm. But the trends have just been "meh" lately. However, they do not get onto land until 00z runs tomorrow. That's when I begin to really digest the models. For that reason, may hold off on a blog until Friday morning so I can get more data.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:35 pm

The models have been inconsistent at best this year, all of our major snowstorms this year I believe were forecasted to be OTS and weak until the final hours before the event. The pattern overall doesn't look bad with HP placement, ect. Models have trended slightly more progressive with the flow and it's kicking it OTS. The 3rd storm was a far southern slider and it kept inching further NW, more amplified, and wetter within I believe the last 2 or so days within the event. There are some ensemble members and even OP runs that look very close to a phase and Miller B bomb. We have at least 2 and a half days for this to trend. If what has happened so far with every storm this season happens here, it will come back more NW and amplified. For now we have to just sit tight and hope that we see trends in the right direction.
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:39 pm

yes only time will tell but do any of you guys see it being cold enough here where im at to support snow in this time frame
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:45 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:The models have been inconsistent at best this year, all of our major snowstorms this year I believe were forecasted to be OTS and weak until the final hours before the event. The pattern overall doesn't look bad with HP placement, ect. Models have trended slightly more progressive with the flow and it's kicking it OTS. The 3rd storm was a far southern slider and it kept inching further NW, more amplified, and wetter within I believe the last 2 or so days within the event. There are some ensemble members and even OP runs that look very close to a phase and Miller B bomb. We have at least 2 and a half days for this to trend. If what has happened so far with every storm this season happens here, it will come back more NW and amplified. For now we have to just sit tight and hope that we see trends in the right direction.

Will it be just an amped up N stream s/w that's trends towards a mod event like we have seen in the past, or the phased beast modeled a few days ago?  The ULL projected to be sitting just off the Wash coast by this weekend needs to be further S and W to pump up the ridge to get the phased beast.  Like you said we have a few days to watch the trends.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by shabsies Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:52 pm

So as of now is there any scenario where we could have a Miller A storm or just its just could be Miller B or less storm on Sunday?

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Wed Feb 05, 2014 3:58 pm

shabsies wrote:So as of now is there any scenario  where we could have a Miller A storm or just its just could be  Miller B  or less storm on Sunday?

Don't discount a good Miller B Shabsies.

The Presidents' Day storm in 2003 was a Miller B and it plastered the entire tri-state area with 20 to 30 inches of snow. They can be big snow makers if all the ingredients are there.

I'm not saying that's gonna be the case Sunday, but I'd be the last to complain if it was.
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Post by shabsies Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:03 pm

Could some please explain what makes a storm a HECS, MECS , and what other types of storms out there?
Thanks

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:15 pm

outside of this forum everyone ran with this hyped it up and now they are deflating it without any future models...
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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:18 pm

SECS (significant east coast storm) 6-11 inches   MECS (major east coast storm) 12-18 inches   HECS (historic east coast storm) over 18 inches.
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Post by sroc4 Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:28 pm

shabsies wrote:So as of now is there any scenario  where we could have a Miller A storm or just its just could be  Miller B  or less storm on Sunday?

It was a Miller B last year on Feb 9th that dropped 29" on my home. Incredible storm. It would be ironic if we got another great storm this year. BTW Miller A and B set ups are still possible with this weekends potential, but so is OTS or moderate Northern stream event and inverted trough setup. They have all been modeled at one point or another over the past 3-5 days.

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"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65" 
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Post by SoulSingMG Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:31 pm

LEE just said he doesn't think the pieces of energy will all phase to cause a big storm for Sun-Mon.
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:35 pm

Since I have off from school today and have not much time tomorrow, I will release the blog looking at the possible weekend storm today at 6pm

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:44 pm

     With the pattern we're in right now- multiple shortwaves, split- flow jet streams, cold confluence to the north, even if sunday's event doesn't materialize- which I think will start trending NW in time, I feel its only a matter of time before the pattern produces a MECS or larger for us.
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 05, 2014 4:52 pm

NWS, Taunton, MA

LATER IN THE WEEKEND...THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS /12Z/ AND ECMWF /00Z/ ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER BUT ARE FAIRLY DIFFERENT FROM YESTERDAYS FORECAST AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES. BOTH THE GEFS AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLES HAVE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SPREAD BOTH IN THE 500MB PATTERN AS WELL AS THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE REFLECTION. GIVEN THIS SEASONS TENDENCY FOR THE MODELS TO GO GUNG HO 5-7 DAYS OUT AND THEN WEAKEN STORMS CONSIDERABLY IF NOT MAKE THEM DISAPPEAR COMPLETELY IN DAYS 3-5 AND THEN BRING THE STORMS BACK AS THE RESPONSIBLE SHORTWAVES MOVE INTO MORE DATA RICH REGIONS UPSTREAM...AM NOT READY TO COMPLETELY DISMISS THE POTENTIAL FOR ASTORM LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

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Post by RJB8525 Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:00 pm

I was watching ABC,Lee said he only sees a few inches from this one but still watching it less likely will be anything major. He said we have a better shot now at a next Wednesday storm? i dunno ABC talks about nothing all of a sudden this week they decide to build the weekends up if tv mets are saying otherwise models definitely have to be watched lol
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:09 pm

I saw gfs looks like weak low well out to sea. Unless its gonna be a last minute back west I dunno if I see this happening. Though the models do show bigger storms all the way through 384 hrs. The trends are interesting though and am not totally discounting it for sun/mon.
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Post by jmanley32 Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:11 pm

What is a Mecs? And how much snow do those put out?
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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:26 pm

BLOG IS OUT

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/2014/02/what-happened-to-3-foot-blizzard.html


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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:37 pm

Nice blog frank! So it looks like even if the weekend storm doesn't work out (which i think it will give us a storm), it seems like we have plenty of winter left. Am i correct with that?

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:40 pm

Mets2695 wrote:Nice blog frank! So it looks like even if the weekend storm doesn't work out (which i think it will give us a storm), it seems like we have plenty of winter left. Am i correct with that?

Yessir

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Post by mmanisca Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:45 pm

Gfs actually looks better this run. The models have been struggling with the pieces of energy, perhaps it's taking a first step!! Keep an eye on the trend.

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Post by Frank_Wx Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:48 pm

mmanisca wrote:Gfs actually looks better this run. The models have been struggling with the pieces of energy, perhaps it's taking a first step!! Keep an eye on the trend.


Welcome!

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Post by mmanisca Wed Feb 05, 2014 5:52 pm

Frank that was an excellent blog! I look forward to the next few days!!
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Post by skinsfan1177 Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:10 pm

great write up frank im still learning so much alot to digest lol. I do have a question what does Conus mean. Is it contential U.S. thats what pops in my head first
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Post by aiannone Wed Feb 05, 2014 6:26 pm

18z GFS brings back the storm to an extent. 5-8in on that run with ratios

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