Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

It looks like a northwest trend is trying to happen on the models. Would love to see the 12z GFS make a big stride today. At hours 84, the nam has a nice north to south oriented ridge in the west, while the GFS had the ridge offshore in the pacific. The energy consolidates better on the nam, hence the storm.

This looks like it has been pushed back to Monday now. So I wouldn't discount anything until tomorrow. Remember, this season models seem to bring thing back just 2 days before.

Frank_Wx wrote:It looks like a northwest trend is trying to happen on the models. Would love to see the 12z GFS make a big stride today. At hours 84, the nam has a nice north to south oriented ridge in the west, while the GFS had the ridge offshore in the pacific. The energy consolidates better on the nam, hence the storm.

This looks like it has been pushed back to Monday now. So I wouldn't discount anything until tomorrow. Remember, this season models seem to bring thing back just 2 days before.

"So I wouldn't discount anything until tomorrow. Remember, this season models seem to bring thing back just 2 days before."

This is the most logical phrase from our Fearless Weather Weenie Leader of this Winter Season    !! 

This pattern has been a nightmare for mets this winter and there are some many vorts in the pipleline once again so to speak that the models are just struggling with all these pieces of energy and they are so close together(some) that it can't decipher what is what IMO.

To me, the pattern still suggests a moderate event. I showed you all in the blog why I feel that way. Now it's just a matter of it materializing...

amugs wrote:Holy - I apologize everyone just got up and they are some strong muds.  I mean meds!!

And I posted the same info twice - better call the doctor.

They say genius and madness are closely connected. Maybe genius and being whacked out on strong meds are connected too.

was just watching news 12 on Long Island. Rich Hoffman said now we may need to keep an eye on Sunday to Monday due to changing weather patterns .

I'm at a client today so I have no access to models. I'm guessing from the lack of chatter the last hour or so the GFS 12z hasn't turned in our favor yet?

essexcountypete wrote:

amugs wrote:Holy - I apologize everyone just got up and they are some strong muds.  I mean meds!!

And I posted the same info twice - better call the doctor.

They say genius and madness are closely connected. Maybe genius and being whacked out on strong meds are connected too.

The commercials say that if you have one for more than four hours you should call the doctor immediately, oh wait, wrong prescription, sorry Mugs.

12 gfs has the storm on monday but very weak. maybe an inch or two. sref and nam were both weaker.

Thanks

Let's see what tonight brings.

Everything backed off for Sunday Night/Monday....s/w coming through with little or no moisture....

I hope it trends better thought it was. Oh well HM saying warm up coming second half of february whivh may be good bc he usually wrong lol

Can anyone explain to me why Mt. Holly has 1-2 inches for whole area but Upton has nothing even though they are right next to each other on ther left side at least? Doesn't make sense to me should be the same IMO especially if its a coastal.

skinsfan1177 wrote:I hope it trends better thought it was. Oh well HM saying warm up coming second half of february whivh may be good bc he usually wrong lol

I watched that Henry video.It mentioned, though, on his blog he thinks it goes back to cold again for March.

After Valentine's Day he felt the pattern shifts with a coastal rain on the coast, snow in the mountains storm at the end of next week.

We'll see, it is Henry after all, LOL!

Lol I'm in the dr office and I hear people talking about 3-6" for Sunday

Wake up RJB that was last night dream lol

So whats the latest for sunday into monday thought it was looking better

It will be south Jersey if anything....

So i have a shot then

oldtimer wrote:Wake up RJB that was last night dream   lol

Lol I was laughing since I get all the real info and model updates here

The ULL over the NW Pac is sending wave after wave (like 10 on these runs) in and causing the models to play pinball as the ball keeps getting bounced around the bumpers - I think I dated myself for some of the young ins on the board - sorry - IMO this may not shake out until tomorrow for Sunday/Mon but that flatness in the west I do not like but funnier things have happened this winter - models are being taken to this cleaners with this set up. Reasons why I am not posting since I am not seriously looking at them right now just being patient to see what comes about. The don't know IMO which one to follow - those of you looking do you see the same thing?

It's a shame all these waves with no real moisture...staying in the northern jet, no interaction with moisture until next week...

By that time it might br 36 and rain

Dunnzoo wrote:It's a shame all these waves with no real moisture...staying in the northern jet, no interaction with moisture until next week...

I doubt we will remain completely dry Sunday/Monday. I'm still thinking 2-4 inches for the area. Leaning more towards 2.

15z SREFs continue to be much more aggressive with the clipper. To me it seems this is our only chance for the time period, the wave just before this will stay well to the south, there has been no north trend like I was hoping for and at this time I am confident in saying it's a miss.

I would just like to clarify, I am very confident that we can put the idea of a large storm to rest. THIS WILL NOT BE A PHASED SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT A LARGE AREA. Most likely a clipper with C-2" amounts at best maybe 2-4" type of deal. The 30" storm idea is dead at this point... completely.

As I mentioned earlier, I agree. 2-4 inches. Still something to freshen up the pack. Make it look fresh again.

18z gfs gives us a 1-3" snowfall for sun nite- monday morn. .1 to.25 QPF. in line with sref. nam has less than .1 QPF