Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by sroc4 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:00 am

I posted this on my facebook page for some of my fam and friends to look at.  I wish the TV mets would approach things like this and show a graphic about it.  Keep in mind all that we are going to delete posts that bash any Mets so try not to bash anyone in particular.  Thanks.  

Feb 9th-10th Snow storm update:

I have been asked a hundred times in the past 24 hrs about the possible weekend snow storm, so here is a brief update. For those who are hoping for the huge 1-2 feet of snow Nor Easter advertised for the past week, unfortunately it is looking less and less likely that that will happen. Now that yesterdays storm is up and out of here it appears that the jet stream will remain split into two branches, a northern branch, and a southern branch. You need the energy in the northern branch to "Phase" with the energy in the southern branch at the right time and location to create the massive snow storm that was showing up on the models last week. The way I see it now there is about a 10% chance that happens. There is about a 40% chance of light accumulations (less than 6"), and 40% chance of a moderate event (6-10"). The last 10% goes to seeing no snow at all on Sunday. The two energies associated with the two branches will only come onshore on the west coast by Friday, so I am not going to comment further until at least Sat.

You know me and my dorky weather obsession. When and if I feel like something will happen I will share.

P.S There are two other "possible" events for later next week as well.

_________________
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 60.35"
Jan 2nd-3rd = 11"              Feb 3rd = 9.75"              **March 3rd = 0.25"
Jan 21st-22nd = 9.1"          Feb 5th = 3.25"      
Jan 25th = 1.8"                  Feb 9th = 1"            
Jan 29th = 1.75"                Feb 13th/14th = 12"  
                                      Feb 15th = 2.6"
                                      Feb 18th = 2.4"

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:37 am

Good stuff Doc, and I agree. This is what Meteorologist Mike Faveretta has to say:

Mike Favaretta wrote:
Out to Sea?

"Not so fast…before we write off Sunday's storm just because some "models" say so, let's remember what has happened for almost every snow storm this past season.

7 days before: the forecast looked disastrous with a monster storm.
4-5 days before: the storm seems to "disappear" on the weather charts.
3 days before (now): the storm is re-appears, but it stays just to our South.
1-2 days before: the storm jogs further and further north, with every 12 hour update, slapping us with last-minute, largely unexpected snow.

Are we going to get fooled again? No! Let's err on the cautious side and keep snow in the forecast for Sunday. Will it be monstrous? Probably not, but it will still snow during the latter half of the weekend, beginning Saturday night at the earliest. I'm thinking manageable: like a 3-6" deal, ending Sunday. If all goes to plan, kids and parents should be able to get to school and work without much hassle on Monday.

Wednesday could be more significant. More on that tomorrow.

mike"


_________________
2013-2014 snowfall, Cranford, NJ:

November 11th: Trace
December 10th: 2.5 inches
December 14th: 6.3 inches
December 17th: 1.0 inches
January 3rd: 6.0 inches 
January 21st: 11.6 inches
January 25th: 2.0 inches  
January 29th: 0.5 inches
February 3rd: 7.5 inches
February 5th: 4.0 inches 
February 9th: 1.7 inches
February 14th: 16.7 inches
February 18th: 2.0 inches
February 26th: 0.3 inches

Total: 62.1 Inches

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by skinsfan1177 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 11:40 am

I sure hope it comes back pretty much every local news and met saying not much of a storm

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:08 pm

Well for sure, even if we get 6-10 this weekend thats enough for me, I do not need 2 feet, my neighborhood would be impassable as it is almost now. I think something suspicious is up with the plowers. Only little plows have come by and there are areas of hard compacked =bumpy ice and slop on top, wouldnt a big plow take that right out? Seems like they aren't soing their jobs, even a cop got stuck.

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by Dunnzoo on Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:12 pm

Per 12z NAM and GFS, still not enough ridging in the west...maybe a few inches on Sunday...

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Snowfall winter of 2013-2014  66.5"

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by RJB8525 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:23 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Per 12z NAM and GFS, still not enough ridging in the west...maybe a few inches on Sunday...

thats what TWC is saying right now too light snow but maybe a few inches at best

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by amugs on Thu Feb 06, 2014 12:44 pm

The ridge in the west is blah as currently forecasted IMO but I agree with Doc above about the potential for a moderate snowstorm - Mother Nature saying a big _ _ to those sensualist who overplayed this snow mega don this week.  She will catch us off guard to stick it to those.  The meteorologist Mike F is on my page or I am on his page about this winter and the storms we have had. We shall see but I am putting more faith into the midweek storms. Not throwing in the towel at all here just not doing it for me right now - maybe the heavy penicillin I am on for my bronchitis?!

I am sure that will change once the SREF's and GGEM go bonkers tonight - HAHAHA!!

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:04 pm

SREF runs have certainly trended much better. This is the 9z run, NOT the latest 15z which should come out soon.

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

This may be another setup where a clipper comes down the pike and picks up Atlantic moisture and intensifies. A fully phased storm is becoming less likely as the southern energy looks to be suppressed by high pressure. A moderate snowfall is not out of the question. Light snowfall seems like a given at this time.

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:07 pm

NWS agrees with you saying light snow is possible with a chance at something more significant.

It ain't dead yet!

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:12 pm

docstox12 wrote:NWS agrees with you saying light snow is possible with a chance at something more significant.

It ain't dead yet!

True, unfortunately it looks like just another light event with moderate possible. I'm not going to complain much given my yearly snowfall is over 40 inches so far but I have really wanted a strong phased storm and so far we haven't had it. For a year dealing with weaker systems we are doing very well though and for that I cannot whine too much.

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by deadrabbit79 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:16 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Good stuff Doc, and I agree. This is what Meteorologist Mike Faveretta has to say:

Mike Favaretta wrote:
Out to Sea?

"Not so fast…before we write off Sunday's storm just because some "models" say so, let's remember what has happened for almost every snow storm this past season.

7 days before: the forecast looked disastrous with a monster storm.
4-5 days before: the storm seems to "disappear" on the weather charts.
3 days before (now): the storm is re-appears, but it stays just to our South.
1-2 days before: the storm jogs further and further north, with every 12 hour update, slapping us with last-minute, largely unexpected snow.

Are we going to get fooled again? No! Let's err on the cautious side and keep snow in the forecast for Sunday. Will it be monstrous? Probably not, but it will still snow during the latter half of the weekend, beginning Saturday night at the earliest. I'm thinking manageable: like a 3-6" deal, ending Sunday. If all goes to plan, kids and parents should be able to get to school and work without much hassle on Monday.

Wednesday could be more significant. More on that tomorrow.

mike"


Pretty much what i tweeted to bill evans this morning after he tweeted that Sunday looked like a non event.  He tweeted me back saying that it was not true!

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by docstox12 on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:19 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:
docstox12 wrote:NWS agrees with you saying light snow is possible with a chance at something more significant.

It ain't dead yet!

True, unfortunately it looks like just another light event with moderate possible. I'm not going to complain much given my yearly snowfall is over 40 inches so far but I have really wanted a strong phased storm and so far we haven't had it. For a year dealing with weaker systems we are doing very well though and for that I cannot whine too much.

These totals so far this year ( I'm at 39) are amazing given the lack of phasing for a Miller A bomb.Still lot's of snow time left.There will be other moderate 4 to 8 inchers and plenty of time for a bomb to explode around here.

Great winter so far!

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:28 pm

Bill's not happy with me.

@Evansweather: @MATHIEUsings Dude, look at my stuff, I post it here everyday. You asked my opinion. A few inches of snow Sunday is not a big deal.

My response:

@MATHIEUsings: @Evansweather Public expects informed forecasts, not 'opinions' from METS. To say storm "won't happen" is an absolute you can't be sure of.

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by Artechmetals on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:31 pm

About the two storms for next week will temps be an issue ? Will temps be lingering in the 30s or will it be cold enough to stay away from slop

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Re: Feb 9th-10th Storm Final Discussion/Observations

Post by SoulSingMG on Thu Feb 06, 2014 1:37 pm

I'm not trying to be a bitch. But I find it really irresponsible of a MET to give an 'absolute'..EVER..four days out before a potential threat. Especially given this season and the models' lack of ability to pick up on systems correctly until two or less days out. He is suppose to inform the public of potentials, not give us absolutes as if he is Miss Cleo.

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