GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

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GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 03, 2013 5:50 pm

EURO shows a nice coastal storm, although its a bit too warm for our area. Ensembles are colder. GFS is close to showing a coastal but the phase is late. More details tomorrow since I'm heading to a Super Bowl party.


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Thu Feb 07, 2013 4:04 pm; edited 5 times in total
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 03, 2013 10:08 pm

12z EURO was warm today, but I am not looking at temp profiles until all models show a coastal storm. EURO has not been very good this winter. I can see GFS being right.

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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 03, 2013 11:13 pm



00z GFS still looks nothing like the EURO. I think EURO is BS here and will lose the storm tonight or tomorrow.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 04, 2013 7:58 am

Unfortunately I am going to have to agree with you Frank.
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img41/4456/soclosex.png
I posted this image a few days ago before this past Sunday's event. I post it here again because it echos the entire pattern this winter, and IMHO ultimately serves as a blue print once again for this Thurs/Friday potential.
This is the surface map of what the GFS has for the 7th/8th.
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img443/2996/feb7th8thsurface.png
All too familiar. The Euro is showing a completely diff soln. Euro has a coastal. In no way am I saying the GFS is 100% correct right now, but unfort the Teles seem to me to support the GFS. I would be willing to bet that the GFS will show something in the upcoming runs that will tease the Sh..... out of us, but in the end the progressive east coast flow and lack of a strong ridge in the west will once again lead to a late phase with minimal to no major impacts along the entire east coast.
Just look at the Teles. I'm sorry..nothing to support the northern energy diving in, and nothing to indicate the Southern energy will turn north before the two pieces are OTS.
NAO
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img37/4913/feb7th8thnao.gif
Once again if you break down the NAO it is primarily east based
PNA
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img132/8862/feb7th8thpna.gif
Sorry just keeping it real. In this situation I will gladly eat crow if I am wrong.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 04, 2013 8:15 am

Good post.

I hope I'm wrong too. For those wondering, EURO last night came in with another coastal storm. Even stronger and colder then before. I am still not buying into its solution. The pattern just does not look like a coastal storm for the coast. We'll see what happens today at 12z
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 04, 2013 12:48 pm



Here are my thought's for the weekend storm. I do not like the upper level pattern for this one and I think the EURO is a bunch of bs. How the hell do you get a coastal storm in this set up?
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 04, 2013 1:34 pm

The 12z EURO showed a coastal again, but it is weaker and east from 00z run. There was less of a phase with the northern stream and I think this trend continues and eventually EURO loses the coastal idea.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:44 am

I guess this is the time frame where I am teased. Euro still showing a decent chance at a mostly snow event, and now GFS has a partial phase close enough to the coast to start as snow but change to rain. There is one thing that intrigues me. I think I read this from JB but the Euro, which has been consistently showing a coastal with a deeper trough, is usually the model that holds back the southern energy as a general bias within the model itself. In this scenario it is not. Could it mean it has been onto something? We shall see.

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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Radz on Tue Feb 05, 2013 7:18 am

Looks like the GFS is trying to develop a coastal now...will the Euro recapture the title of "king" once again?? lol
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:02 am

GFS gas caved to the EURO. A Godzilla is coming. But will it be for us or just for Boston ? If the phase happens sooner, we are looking at 12+ inch snowfall for our area. If not, it will be all rain. Wow this is crazy!!
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:05 am

Ugh, given how this winter's been going and how this looks now I wouldn't be surprised if this was mostly rain for us and a big hit for the far interior and NE.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:25 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS gas caved to the EURO. A Godzilla is coming. But will it be for us or just for Boston ? If the phase happens sooner, we are looking at 12+ inch snowfall for our area. If not, it will be all rain. Wow this is crazy!!

Hmm, I smell an evening Live Chat within the next day or so,...possibly to track the NAM!

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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 12:20 pm

NjWeatherGuy wrote:Ugh, given how this winter's been going and how this looks now I wouldn't be surprised if this was mostly rain for us and a big hit for the far interior and NE.

No -NAO or +PNA. I smell rain for us as well, unfortunately. But crazier things have happened. This storm even coming up the coast is crazy enough. Never would have thought that
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Top 61 Snow Storms in NYC

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:24 pm

I'd love to see Friday make the list.

Not expecting it in NYC although I'm thinking 6-10 in the Hudson Valley where I am (Orange County).

Close call for anyone within 25 miles of NYC. Hope this happens for all of us. We deserve it.

Biggest Snowstorms All Time
10 inches or more Central Park in NYC
(through February 4, 2013)

Rank Amt Year & Date
1st 26.9 February 11-12, 2006
2nd 26.4 December 26-27, 1947
3rd 21.0 March 12-14, 1888
4th 20.9 February 25-26, 2010
5th 20.2 January 7-8, 1996
6th 20.0 December 26-27, 2010
7th 19.8 February 16-17, 2003
8th 19.0 January 26-27, 2011
9th 18.1 March 7-8, 1941
10th 18.0 December 26, 1872
11th 17.7 February 5-7, 1978
12th 17.6 February 11-12, 1983
13th 17.5 January 22-24, 1935
14th 17.5 February 4-7, 1920
15th 17.4 February 3-4, 1961
16th 16.0 December 19-20, 1948
17th 16.0 February 12-13, 1899
18th 15.3 February 9-10, 1969
19th 15.2 December 11-12, 1960
20th 14.5 March 3-4, 1960
21st 14.5 March 1-2, 1914
22nd 14.0 December 5-7, 2003
23rd 13.8 January 22-23, 2005
24th 13.7 December 21-22, 1959
25th 13.6 January 19-20, 1978
26th 13.0 January 15-16, 1879
27th 13.0 January 1-2, 1877
28th 12.8 February 11, 1994
29th 12.7 February 19, 1979
30th 12.7 December 15, 1916
31st 12.5 February 7, 1967
32nd 12.5 January 12-13, 1964
33rd 12.5 February 20, 1921
34th 12.0 December 30, 2000
35th 12.0 February 9-10, 1926
36th 12.0 March 15-16, 1896
37th 11.8 March 19-20, 1958
38th 11.6 March 18-19, 1956
39th 11.5 January 2, 1925
40th 11.4 December 24, 1912
41st 11.2 December 26, 1933
42nd 11.0 February 3-4, 1876
43rd 11.0 January 24-25, 1905
44th 11.0 February 4-5, 1907
45th 10.9 December 19-20, 2009
46th 10.8 February 4, 1995
47th 10.7 February 20-21, 1947
48th 10.7 February 16-17, 1996
49th 10.6 March 13-14, 1993
50th 10.4 February 3-4, 1926
51st 10.4 January 28, 2004
52nd 10.2 April 3-4, 1915
53rd 10.0 April 13, 1875
54th 10.0 March 2, 1896
55th 10.0 January 27-28, 1897
56th 10.0 November 26-27, 1898
57th 10.0 February 17, 1902
58th 10.0 January 23-24, 1908
59th 10.0 January 14-15, 1910
60th 10.0 February 11, 1933
61st 10.0 February 9-10, 2010


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:39 pm; edited 2 times in total (Reason for editing : format)
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Snow88 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:46 pm

12z Euro snowfall map has 6 inches in NYC and more in eastern LI. Forget about Boston. Over 25 inches up there.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:50 pm



12z EURO
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:56 pm

EURO snow map

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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 2:56 pm

Everyone be on chat tonight around 10:00pm. Spread the word!!! The chat is located at the bottom of the home page
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Feb 05, 2013 3:07 pm

Screw New England, they've done fine this year, come a few hundred miles southwest.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 3:24 pm

Tom, EURO ensembles show 6-12 inches for us and 12+ inches for NYC and LI
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:11 pm

Boston has had less than 9 inches so far this season.

Remember back in December they were suppose to get 8 to 12 from a storm the WC kept hyping and they got less than an inch.

Like someone said earlier I'd rather not be in the jackpot yet because it's never gonna end up where they show it 4 days out.

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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:14 pm

The 00z models tonight will have better data sampling since the northern stream energy associated with developing this Nor'easter is coming on shore as we speak. Look for my update on what the 00z GFS shows around 10:45-11:00pm tonight. In order to get a larger snowstorm for NJ, we need the following to happen:

1. The High Pressure system to our north needs to hold positioning and not retreat east. This will help usher in some cold air and prevent winds from coming out of the warm southeasterly flow.

2. Quicker phase. If the northern stream energy digs into the trough more and phases with the southern stream energy sooner, the Nor'easter would develop sooner and will pull down cold air all the way to the coast, as well as bring more precipitation to the area (more snow).

3. Even though the NAO is positive and the PNA is neutral, there are other influences in our atmosphere helping this storm to develop and come up the coast. One being the pseudo ridge in the west-central US. If that ridge amplifies a bit more, it will help dig our northern stream energy more and bring the earlier phase.

4. This looks to be a Friday into Saturday storm, but exact timing is still uncertain at this time. At the very least, this looks like a moderate snowfall event for NNJ. Whether it becomes major or not depends on the other factors I mentioned above.
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:15 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Boston has had less than 9 inches so far this season.

Remember back in December they were suppose to get 8 to 12 from a storm the WC kept hyping and they got less than an inch.

Like someone said earlier I'd rather not be in the jackpot yet because it's never gonna end up where they show it 4 days out.


I saw your post from before. 10 inches or more is possible for you, especially with ratios being high. I agree about being in the jackpot so soon...we'll see what tonight does
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 05, 2013 4:44 pm

Im going to set the table here. Here is what we have to look for in order for this thing to really happen. Hr 54 from today's GFS 12z run.
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img715/1493/feb8th.png
The table is set nicely. What we need to pay particular attention to here is the HP to our north. IMO it is key. If it remains strong it remains stubborn and forces the northern energy south into the southern energy triggering the phase. Just how strong and how stubborn it will be will dictate when and how strong the phase will be. Notice there is also a 50/50 Low (approx 50n Lat and 50N Long) at this time frame. The stronger the phase the more the cold air can be drawn into the system esp into the upper atmosphere of the storm. If the phase is not as strong, or a little late the southern energy will have a chance to start intensifying as it reaches the warm Atlantic moisture coming from the gulf stream...very warm and will incorporate into the upper levels and slop fest for I95 and maybe even further west than that. However if the HP stays strong and the northern energy is allowed to trigger the initial strengthening then its colder air will work into the system. Now look at hr 78.
https://redcdn.net/ihimizer/img11/5232/feb8thsurfacehr78.png
The HP is building in behind the rapidly intensifying coastal. How strong the HP remains to the north as well as how strong its builds in behind is also vital to how strong she gets, when, and how much cold air is involved and at what levels of the atmosphere. The combination of the timing of the northern energy being injected into the southern energy as well as how steep the gradient is from HP to LP both to the north and to the west of the system will be vital.
Just for the record I still think that a late phase and only minor implications from this system is a possibility. If that 50/50 low is not as intense as it is shown at hr 54 or it is positioned further east will the HP to our north break down and move out too quickly which in turn allows the northern energy to escape to far to the north triggering the once again dreaded late phase OTS? That soln has been slowly deteriorating in my mind, but still not out of the question. Trust me I am ready to eat my crow, but will wait to take the first bite until Sat morning.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 62.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
March 7th-8th 9.2"
March 12th-13th 6"
March 20th-22nd 11.8"
April 2nd 6"
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Re: GODZILLA..BLIZZARD WARNING NYC METRO

Post by Noreaster on Tue Feb 05, 2013 6:11 pm

After a long hiatus due to frustration, I'm back. The trend this winter is to have a lack luster southern stream and an overmodeled northern stream which ends up weaker by the time we get within 48 hrs or a "storm". With this set up with have a nice phase of these 2 streams taking place on some of our model guidance. I am cautiously optomisitc that we see a miracle (snow storm) considering the near neutral pna, ao and nao. Our pattern has been and still is so progressive that its hard to believe we could see a decent costal low develop. Ill take whatever snow falls from this storm. A lot can change. And the trends this winter r not our friend. Im rooting hard for a Euro type solution to this but I will remain objective. I would add more but it looks like u guys already did a good job.
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