Canadian Model Undergoing Big Upgrade (Again)

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:50 pm

Last year, the CMC underwent a big upgrade (including the RGEM). It looks like the Canadians are now pumping more money into their model. Here's the details:

After seeing significant improvement in their Models in 2013 last month the Canadians announced they are pourings tens of millions of $$ into another huge upgrade.

1 The current model resolution of the Global Caandian ( aka as the GGEM) is 25km ... under this new upgrade they will drop it down to 15km... equal to the ECWMF ( uro is 16km)

2 they will expand the use of 4DVAR on all of the CMC Global ensembles which is Huge and very costly. AS of this postiing ONLY the ECMWF ensembles uses 4DVAR . ... so this increase by the Canadians is BIG

3 Model the short range RGEM Model resolution will shift from 12km to 5km and go out to 60 hrs.

And if you want more info on 4DVAR...

http://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/events/adjoint_workshop-8/present/Sunday/Kepert1.pdf


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Post by Math23x7 on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:57 pm

you beat me to it Frank. I was gonna post on here about the RGEM. But this is awesome news. It's too bad the winter season is in it's home stretch. But maybe if the storm potential for early next week holds on, it might be useful, but only if the upgrade happens by then. Any idea on when the upgrade will occur?

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:58 pm

I'm not sure of when this happens. I have a feeling not until the spring

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Post by Yschiff on Mon Feb 24, 2014 10:59 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:I'm not sure of when this happens. I have a feeling not until the spring
If spring ever comes

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Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 24, 2014 11:01 pm

Yschiff wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:I'm not sure of when this happens. I have a feeling not until the spring
If spring ever comes

Good point. Maybe by May we just go straight to Summer. That would really stir up the climate change debate

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:24 am

http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/022114-690857-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-climate-models.htm?ref=mp

I also never mentioned that I was up to my ankles in acorns this fall, an indicator that I always used accurately to predict a severe winter until that Forstner guy from the old Channel 7 board, a Horticulturist, blew me out of the water suggesting it was not "scientific".Well, go figure,LOL!
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Post by Quietace on Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:35 am

Hopefully this fixes its tropical cyclone issues on the GEM. Its also very impressive the RGEM is now down to 5km resolution. Massive upgrades that will surely if not completely beat the EURO in verifying scores.
Still waiting on the GFS's upgrades. There coming soon.

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Post by mako460 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:32 am

docstox12 wrote:http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/022114-690857-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-climate-models.htm?ref=mp

I also never mentioned that I was up to my ankles in acorns this fall, an indicator that I always used accurately to predict a severe winter until that Forstner guy from the old Channel 7 board, a Horticulturist, blew me out of the water suggesting it was not "scientific".Well, go figure,LOL!


Sorry Doc, I didn't mean to blow up your theory, I was just stating fact, LOL.

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Post by sroc4 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 7:42 am

mako460 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/022114-690857-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-climate-models.htm?ref=mp

I also never mentioned that I was up to my ankles in acorns this fall, an indicator that I always used accurately to predict a severe winter until that Forstner guy from the old Channel 7 board, a Horticulturist, blew me out of the water suggesting it was not "scientific".Well, go figure,LOL!


Sorry Doc, I didn't mean to blow up your theory, I was just stating fact, LOL.
Lol I remember that convo. So Mako = Forstner good stuff

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Post by docstox12 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 9:17 am

sroc4 wrote:
mako460 wrote:
docstox12 wrote:http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials/022114-690857-farmers-almanac-more-accurate-than-climate-models.htm?ref=mp

I also never mentioned that I was up to my ankles in acorns this fall, an indicator that I always used accurately to predict a severe winter until that Forstner guy from the old Channel 7 board, a Horticulturist, blew me out of the water suggesting it was not "scientific".Well, go figure,LOL!


Sorry Doc, I didn't mean to blow up your theory, I was just stating fact, LOL.
Lol I remember that convo. So Mako = Forstner good stuff

Aha! Now that's a fact....Mako=Forstner.

It's good to hear from an old Channel 7 Board guy again.Hope all went well with the rebuilding of the house.

Acornly yours, DOC (LOL)
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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:28 am

The old gang is back Doc now where is Winterwarlock??

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Post by jmanley32 on Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:30 am

This will def be interesting for hurricane season, I remember so many huge storms showing up on it hitting east coast and then disappearing, hopefully maybe this upgrade will help prevent that.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:09 pm

The CMC appears as though its already one of the better models. Should be very good when they update data and increase resolution.
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:12 pm

amugs wrote:The old gang is back Doc now where is Winterwarlock??

What about HistoryNerd?, Monkeydoodles, Litthedog? Are they here lurking under a different alias?
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:14 pm

Plus who was the girl that always asked about new paltz?
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Post by Dunnzoo on Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:18 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Plus who was the girl that always asked about new paltz?

aadil? he is on another forum somewhere....maybe I saw him on FB

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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 25, 2014 1:39 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Plus who was the girl that always asked about new paltz?

aadil? he is on another forum somewhere....maybe I saw him on FB

Yes I believe that was her, his? forum name.
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Post by amugs on Tue Feb 25, 2014 2:17 pm

Littledog - yes - monkey dude got banned I believe.

Okay and the CMC will be great after it's upgrade and it has been good this winter season IMO and I really hope it verifies for all of us next week - I am ready for the last leg of winter!!

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