The Conservancy got it right for once

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Abba701 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:01 am

I still don't know when the extra .5 was measured.Do you?

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:09 am

On the daily update at 1:00 am they added a half inch to the 4:00 pm update.

Realistically I'm sure it was at least an inch if not a little more.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Abba701 on Fri Mar 06, 2015 6:12 am

That's where I saw the half inch also.maybe they will update again.Who knows.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:54 am

So CPK measured 3.2 inches of snow at 8 pm and LGA 4.6.

At midnight CPK updated to 4.5 and LGA stayed at 4.6.

Someone must have told the zookeeper to go back out and measure again between 8 and 12 and get it right this time. That's now 6 in a row they've gotten right since our little campaign.

Now if they would only correct the mistakes from this season CPK would be over 53 inches like LGA.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Mar 21, 2015 7:51 am

Problem is every start to the season we have to remind them...

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by amugs on Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:09 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Problem is every start to the season we have to remind them...
if that is what we need to do then so be it!! CP FTW here!!

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 24, 2015 5:41 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Paging CP!!

@BigJoeBastardi: NWS at Upton has increased 3 snowfalls at Central Park, and rightfully so, acknowledging what almost all CTP snow watchers knew

Frank_Wx wrote:CP in particular deserves a lot of credit, but many of us have been emailing these guy after EVERY storm this winter to see why they're reporting so low. They increased snow amounts in CPK, check it out:

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1056 AM EDT TUE MAR 24 2015

...INCREASES TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT CENTRAL PARK...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PERFORMED AN ANALYSIS OF SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS THAT FELL AND WERE MEASURED AT CENTRAL PARK EARLIER THIS
YEAR.

THREE SPECIFIC SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT CENTRAL PARK WERE LESS THAN
SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS. BASED ON THESE FINDINGS...AN ANALYSIS WAS
PERFORMED THAT MADE USE OF SURROUNDING OBSERVATIONS...SNOW TO LIQUID
RATIOS AND RADAR DATA FOR ALL THESE EVENTS.

THE RESULTS OF THESE ANALYSIS WERE TO INCREASE THE DAILY SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AT CENTRAL PARK ON THE FOLLOWING DAYS...

1/6/2015 FROM 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH...AN INCREASE OF 0.5 INCHES.

1/24/2015 FROM 2.5 TO 3.6 INCHES...AN INCREASE OF 1.1 INCHES.

2/2/2015 FROM 3.3 TO 5.0 INCHES...AN INCREASE OF 1.7 INCHES.

THIS IS AN INCREASE OF 3.3 INCHES...WHICH BRINGS THE TOTAL SEASONAL
SNOWFALL AT CENTRAL PARK TO 50.3 INCHES.

THESE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE CLIMATE DATABASE FOR CENTRAL PARK
AND REPRESENTS A BETTER FIT TO THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURROUNDING
OBSERVATIONS FOR THESE RESPECTIVE WINTER EVENTS.


My life's work is now completed.

I never thought they would get around to it, but I guess they kept their word after all.  I believe you said it a few days ago Frank and I've been saying it for years, next year we start again at square one and have to stay on top of them from the very first snowfall otherwise the same thing will start over again. As long as NJ strong is here and everyone who sent e-mails stays on top of them NOAA will hear from us.

So I guess what I said at the beginning of this really isn't true, my lifes work regarding CPK will never be done but at least this year we won the battle, next year it begins all over again. Quite an accomplishment by everyone who participated in this indeed.

Let's also not forget that after the e-mail campaign began they did get they next 6 snowfalls correct, that in itself was a monumental achievement by this Forum


Last edited by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Mar 24, 2015 6:06 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by JoeBx82 on Wed Mar 25, 2015 4:27 pm

Great job CP even though it was probably more like 5 or 6 inches than the 3.3 they did. Now if we can only somehow go back for the last 20 years or so to fix those other snow totals lol.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:23 pm

JoeBx82 wrote:Great job CP even though it was probably more like 5 or 6 inches than the 3.3 they did. Now if we can only somehow go back for the last 20 years or so to fix those other snow totals lol.

I agree Joe, it was 5 to 6 inches they should have added but they played it conservative and I'm just happy they changed what they did. Of course the other thing we all accomplished was having them get the last 6 snowfalls of the season correct.

Regarding past years, this first came to my attention during the February 6, 1978 storm when the final total from CPK came in at 17.7. It was at least 20-22 inches from that storm and I couldn't understand at the time how a government agency could get it so wrong, I was young and naive at the time. It's probably been going on longer than that.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Mar 25, 2015 11:39 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
JoeBx82 wrote:Great job CP even though it was probably more like 5 or 6 inches than the 3.3 they did. Now if we can only somehow go back for the last 20 years or so to fix those other snow totals lol.

I agree Joe, it was 5 to 6 inches they should have added but they played it conservative and I'm just happy they changed what they did. Of course the other thing we all accomplished was having them get the last 6 snowfalls of the season correct.

Regarding past years, this first came to my attention during the February 6, 1978 storm when the final total from CPK came in at 17.7. It was at least 20-22 inches from that storm and I couldn't understand at the time how a government agency could get it so wrong, I was young and naive at the time. It's probably been going on longer than that.

I have mentioned this numerous times before but I still think the March 1888 blizzard takes the cake for the most controversial snowfall measurement from CPK.  It had to have been at least 30" from all of the reports and images I see from that storm.  It's unfortunate that, as far as we know, no one alive today went through that blizzard 127 years ago.  Maybe then we could have a chat with the person that made the measurement. Laughing

Interestingly enough, this was from a recording in 1949 interviewing an elderly man about that blizzard, he was from the Greater Hartford region, not the NYC region, but still something to take note of:


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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 23, 2016 8:52 am

I'm not activating our e-mail campaign yet but I am a little concerned in these early stages of the storm about the Conservancy picking up where the Zookeeper left off. We shall see tonight.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 23, 2016 1:04 pm

On no. What have they been measuring ?

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sat Jan 23, 2016 2:36 pm

I saw about an hour ago an official measurement of 14.7. That at least seems in the ballpark. Laguardia was 16.2 but with all of the banding there will be differences. I guess we won't know till tomorrow morning and we see surrounding areas final totals how they did. Just one other interesting aspect of the storm.


On a side note fantastic job again Frank on an incredibly difficult storm.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Dtone on Sat Jan 23, 2016 3:58 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I saw about an hour ago an official measurement of 14.7. That at least seems in the ballpark. Laguardia was 16.2 but with all of the banding there will be differences. I guess we won't know till tomorrow morning and we see surrounding areas final totals how they did. Just one other interesting aspect of the storm.


On a side note fantastic job again Frank on an incredibly difficult storm.

14.7" @ CPK and 16,2" @ LGA was at 1pm. They should be way past that by now with more coming.


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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 24, 2016 11:20 am

I would certainly say the Conservancy did a much better job than the Central Park Zoo would have done with this storm. I would guess if the Zoo was still in charge the final total would have been about 22.

My only beef is they measured 25.1 inches at 7pm and Newark and Laguardia had totals of 25.5 and 24.5 at the same time. Those two ended with 27.9 and 28.1 inches. It is unlikely that Central Park which is geographically right in between the two, 5 miles or so on either side, that there was that big a discrepancy after 7pm. Otherwise a decent job by the Conservancy.

One other beef. There was some snow in Central Park after midnight, not a lot but I'm sure enough for the 2 tenths of an inch needed for the record, that was totally ignored.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 05, 2016 1:45 pm

I have to give the Conservancy a C- on their second attempt at the difficult, arduous task of measuring snow.

Their official 1 PM measurement came in at 2.5 inches. I'm sure this is after some melting and some compression. Obviously the correct time to measure would have been 1030 or 11 AM when the snow was coming to a finish. LaGuardia measured 2.4 at the same time JFK 4.6 and Newark 2.8. Other than JFK they are all low to their surrounding areas and all probably suffered from the same incompetence. You can change the band but the song remains the same. Still better than the zookeeper but so far a modest upgrade at best.

This now puts CPK at 29.7 inches for the season which surpasses the historical average of 28.8 inches. I would guess the actual this year is about 32, about one inch missed for this one and another inch at least for Jonas.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by docstox12 on Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:10 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have to give the Conservancy a C- on their second attempt at the difficult, arduous task of measuring snow.

Their official 1 PM measurement came in at 2.5 inches. I'm sure this is after some melting and some compression. Obviously the correct time to measure would have been 1030 or 11 AM when the snow was coming to a finish. LaGuardia measured 2.4 at the same time JFK 4.6 and Newark 2.8. Other than JFK they are all low to their surrounding areas and all probably suffered from the same incompetence. You can change the band but the song remains the same. Still better than the zookeeper but so far a modest upgrade at best.

This now puts CPK at 29.7 inches for the season which surpasses the historical average of 28.8 inches. I would guess the actual this year is about 32, about one inch missed for this one and another inch at least for Jonas.

Nice write up CP.You are so right about compression and melting,the final total must be immediately after the last flake or better yet, regular measurements taken all during the storm.When you get a chance, can you tell me just what the hell a Conservancy is?

You know we are having a tough winter in the HV when we trail CPK by a good foot the first week of February.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:18 pm

docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have to give the Conservancy a C- on their second attempt at the difficult, arduous task of measuring snow.

Their official 1 PM measurement came in at 2.5 inches. I'm sure this is after some melting and some compression. Obviously the correct time to measure would have been 1030 or 11 AM when the snow was coming to a finish. LaGuardia measured 2.4 at the same time JFK 4.6 and Newark 2.8. Other than JFK they are all low to their surrounding areas and all probably suffered from the same incompetence. You can change the band but the song remains the same. Still better than the zookeeper but so far a modest upgrade at best.

This now puts CPK at 29.7 inches for the season which surpasses the historical average of 28.8 inches. I would guess the actual this year is about 32, about one inch missed for this one and another inch at least for Jonas.

Nice write up CP.You are so right about compression and melting,the final total must be immediately after the last flake or better yet, regular measurements taken all during the storm.When you get a chance, can you tell me just what the hell a Conservancy is?

You know we are having a tough winter in the HV when we trail CPK by a good foot the first week of February.


Doc I was actually looking back in my records and in all of my years in the HV that has never happened in a full season. It may not this year either, but just the fact we're discussing it shows how bad it has now become. Think of our poor friends 20-30 miles north that have had 1-3 inches of snow this whole season, that's just mind boggling. One to three inches use to be their average October.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by docstox12 on Fri Feb 05, 2016 2:33 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
docstox12 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I have to give the Conservancy a C- on their second attempt at the difficult, arduous task of measuring snow.

Their official 1 PM measurement came in at 2.5 inches. I'm sure this is after some melting and some compression. Obviously the correct time to measure would have been 1030 or 11 AM when the snow was coming to a finish. LaGuardia measured 2.4 at the same time JFK 4.6 and Newark 2.8. Other than JFK they are all low to their surrounding areas and all probably suffered from the same incompetence. You can change the band but the song remains the same. Still better than the zookeeper but so far a modest upgrade at best.

This now puts CPK at 29.7 inches for the season which surpasses the historical average of 28.8 inches. I would guess the actual this year is about 32, about one inch missed for this one and another inch at least for Jonas.

Nice write up CP.You are so right about compression and melting,the final total must be immediately after the last flake or better yet, regular measurements taken all during the storm.When you get a chance, can you tell me just what the hell a Conservancy is?

You know we are having a tough winter in the HV when we trail CPK by a good foot the first week of February.


Doc I was actually looking back in my records and in all of my years in the HV that has never happened in a full season. It may not this year either, but just the fact we're discussing it shows how bad it has now become. Think of our poor friends 20-30 miles north that have had 1-3 inches of snow this whole season, that's just mind boggling. One to three inches use to be their average October.


CP, the way the winter season is evolving, I'm thinking the pattern is still solidly in a S and E trend for these snow events.I think jimv up north mentioned today he has never seen cutoffs like this seasons and I have to agree with that.The boys north of us were always the jackpot zone 40 or 50 years ago but now, I just cannot explain it.It will set a new record here in your charts if CPK beats us out this season.The only hope I see is for a grand slam HV special where we sit at 31 degrees while the City, Jersey Shore and LI get a soaking rainstorm and we get 20 inches.Getting to be the bottom of the 7th inning here, not too many at bats left for us.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by essexcountypete on Fri Feb 05, 2016 4:11 pm

doc, next week is the 8th, and we've got our best hitters coming to the plate. Time for rally caps!

Never mind, I hate rally caps.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:10 am

Yesterdays totals

Laguardia 1.0 inch
JFK 1.7
Newark 0.2
Cent. Park 0.1

Every event minor and major so far and Central Park keeps coming in low, no major discrepancies yet, the biggest fumble was dropping the ball after 7PM on Jonas but the performance by the Conservancy so far is better than the Zoo but far from perfect.

C+
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:19 am

The thing about the NWS stations is that they take measurements only several times per day, usually 7 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM, and midnight.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:51 am

Math23x7 wrote:The thing about the NWS stations is that they take measurements only several times per day, usually 7 AM, 1 PM, 7 PM, and midnight.

I've always known that is part of the problem Mike, but I'm not sure what percentage of it.

During the last storm when the LGA, Newark and CPK all measured 2.4-2.8 inches at 1pm I believe that was a big part of the problem. The snow had stopped between 10:30-11:00 and a lot of melting and compression happened during those two hours of the day between 11-1pm. All were probably in the 3-4 inch range if they measured at 11 am. JFK measured 4.7 that day but I don't remember when exactly they took that measurement.

BTW Yesterday I was on Union TPK near the Lakeville road crossing, probably a half mile from where Syos works. I can verify the 2.5 inches or so in New Hyde park yesterday.
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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Math23x7 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:12 am

Nice I'm very familiar with that area. It's right by 271st street, the highest numbered street in NYC. Also nearby is the Lake Success shopping center, which I usually visit several times a year.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

Post by Dtone on Tue Feb 09, 2016 10:06 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Yesterdays totals

Laguardia 1.0 inch
JFK          1.7
Newark     0.2
Cent. Park 0.1

Every event minor and major so far and Central Park keeps coming in low, no major discrepancies yet, the biggest fumble was dropping the ball after 7PM on Jonas but the performance by the Conservancy so far is better than the Zoo but far from perfect.

C+
To be fair, that looks about right. Doesn't seem like any acclumating snow made it as far west as Manhattan. Some reports of 2" in eastern Queens, closer to an inch in central to western Queens and near zero west of that.

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Re: The Conservancy got it right for once

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