NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

+33
weatherwatchermom
SNOW MAN
ClimateControl
Analog96
HeresL
snemiroff
Dunnzoo
Vinnydula
1190ftalt
carvin1079
SoulSingMG
aiannone
cooladi
NjWeatherGuy
algae888
amugs
skinsfan1177
sroc4
snowday111
jmanley32
essexcountypete
Biggin23
Taffy
Quietace
Dtone
2004blackwrx
snow247
billg315
docstox12
CPcantmeasuresnow
Math23x7
Abba701
Frank_Wx
37 posters

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Go down

Will CPK get below 0 Thursday night?

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Vote_lcap44%Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Vote_rcap 44% 
[ 28 ]
Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Vote_lcap56%Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Vote_rcap 56% 
[ 36 ]
 
Total Votes : 64
 
 

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:11 pm

NYC did not get below 0 last night and I do not believe they will do so tonight either. I do not know the exact low temperature, but I think it was around 2-3 degrees. They have another shot of doing so Thursday night into Friday morning.

These are the 12z EURO temps by 7am Friday.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_t2m_nyc_17

It looks like NYC is going to be right on the line again but this time the DDM heights are actually lower over the area than they were last night.

Winds chills are going to be equally brutal. Anywhere from -15 to -25*F.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_wchill_nyc_17

Take a vote in the poll and lets we what we come out with. I am curious to see what everyone's opinion is on this. When was the last time NYC was below 0? With the heat island effect, I know it's not very common.

Also a heads up that some snow accumulations of up to an inch are possible early Thursday morning. Here is 1am Thursday. Weak arctic front coming through. Behind it follows the brutal cold.

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Ecmwf_precip_06_nyc_12

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:17 pm

I don't care what forecasts say.No 0 for Central Park.It was 4 degrees last night in the park for like 7 or 8 hours.Proboobaly it was a wind shift more to the west that prevented temps from going further down.

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:35 pm

I just noticed that the park actually got down to 3 last night.that makes this year the coldest reading In quite some time.

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Math23x7 Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:52 pm

What's crazy is this: For February 20th (this Friday), the record low for Central Park in NYC is +7 set back in 1950. So it is much easier to set a record low then given how the late-week arctic blast will unfold.

Math23x7
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 2379
Reputation : 68
Join date : 2013-01-08

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 3:54 pm

Abba701 wrote:I just noticed that the park actually got down to 3 last night.that makes this year the coldest reading In quite some time.

Coldest since January 2004 when it hit 1 on 2 different days and 2 on another. Even then it couldn't crack 0.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by docstox12 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:05 pm

Math23x7 wrote:What's crazy is this: For February 20th (this Friday), the record low for Central Park in NYC is +7 set back in 1950.  So it is much easier to set a record low then given how the late-week arctic blast will unfold.

That should be a lock to break.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:10 pm

NWS service has an almost 30 degree jump Saturday morning from 4 to 32.

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by billg315 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:41 pm

Don't know for sure with NYC. I think the last time Philly got below 0* was in 1994, so maybe around that same time?
billg315
billg315
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 4438
Reputation : 185
Join date : 2015-01-24
Age : 50
Location : Flemington, NJ

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:43 pm

So far:

Yes: 11
No: 4

Ha!

I do think there will be more CAA to work with this go around. Should be interesting Wink

_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Mon Feb 16, 2015 4:57 pm

I want another poll.Who thinks the models are off and not even getting below 10 the r est of the week?

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 5:04 pm

18z GFS looks slightly more impressive with the Wednesday-Thursday snow. A lot of it looks to be west of our area though.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Mon Feb 16, 2015 10:36 pm

billg315 wrote:Don't know for sure with NYC. I think the last time Philly got below 0* was in 1994, so maybe around that same time?

Last time for NYC was Jan 1994 -2.

On the same morning most of the HV was -20 to -25.

One town in NJ hit -34.

Now that was a cold wave, and despite how brutal it was NYC still didn't come within 13 degrees of their all time record. It just shows how powerful the heat Island effect has become.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Mon Feb 16, 2015 11:17 pm

The 00z GFS is pretty impressive with the snow on Thursday.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Abba701 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:16 am

Really don't think it's happening Thursday night.Some places have 5 forecasted for that night .And it think it's really to late in Febuary to count on it.

Abba701

Posts : 328
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2013-01-14

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by snow247 Tue Feb 17, 2015 1:19 am

wow at the 00z EURO, weak area of snow passes through on Thursday giving us some light snow accumulations and then completely bombs out off the coast of Maine on Friday. Close call it seems. Maybe this need to be watched in case the bombing out happens earlier/closer to us.
snow247
snow247
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 2417
Reputation : 0
Join date : 2014-08-27
Location : Mount Ivy, NY - Elevation 545'

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by 2004blackwrx Tue Feb 17, 2015 3:30 am

Being a homeowner and paying the heating bills makes me not a huge fan of this cold. I love the snow. I like it to be around 30 to keep the snow pack, but once your below freezing whats the point of going lower it usually just hurts our snow chances.

2004blackwrx
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 574
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-01-14
Location : Wappinger NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:10 am

NWS still has the snow shower activity up. Maybe we all can get an inch or two out of that.

Noticed the "0" poll in NYC closing to slightly more believing we go below.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:18 am

I'd be very surprised if it happened Doc probably to late in the season for them. I'd give it a 5% chance at best. I still remember the 2004 outbreak when they hit 1 on 2 separate nights one time before midnight and still couldn't touch 0. The last 20 years it seems CPK hitting 0 is like scientists trying to reach 0 kelvin, they can't quite get there.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 5:21 am

Or the inability to reach the speed of light with the electron's mass increasing exponentially, LOL!

Oh, that "heat Island" effect that screwed me in Mahwah for years turning snowstorms to slop.

Still going with the long shot it busts just below zero.Seems to be the favorite ,though, from the poll above.
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:52 am

Just based on climo i doubt it gets below 0. Record lows below zero begin to disapear from CPK from mid Feb on. I havent checked the records now but its never happened much at this time of yr and very soon not at all. Most of those below 0 records were set long ago. Even way back then the window for sub zero temps was ending at this point of winter so for it to happen now alot of stars would have to align.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:56 am

..so after today the only subzero temp ever recorded in CPK was feb 24 1873 at -1.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 7:59 am

Dtone wrote:..so after today the only subzero temp ever recorded in CPK was feb 24 1873 at -1.

Is that true Dtone?

That surprises me a bit.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Dtone Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:11 am

Feb stats. (no subzero temps in March)

http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/nyc/nycfeb.pdf

If you look at the airports which don't have records going back to the 1800s you see even in Jan its rare and by Feb it just doesn't happen in recent generations, At LGA only Feb 2nd and Feb 8th (-1, -2)
To me I look at that its just not in the cards for a large coastal city in this region. That said that's how I felt about the Halloween snow a few yrs back but it happened.

Dtone
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 1738
Reputation : 9
Join date : 2013-08-26
Location : Bronx, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:24 am

Frank_Wx wrote:So far:

Yes: 11
No: 4

Ha!

I do think there will be more CAA to work with this go around. Should be interesting Wink

Big change in the polls Frank, No is definitely capturing the independent voters. It's 14-12 now an 8-3 swing for No since the early returns. Once the rural areas all report I think yes is toast.
CPcantmeasuresnow
CPcantmeasuresnow
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 7265
Reputation : 230
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 103
Location : Eastern Orange County, NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by docstox12 Tue Feb 17, 2015 8:28 am

Logic and reason favor the no's here but with this fresh snowpack down there, who knows.Depends on the wind that night.Going with a seat of the pant gut feeling and voted yes,LOL!
docstox12
docstox12
Wx Statistician Guru
Wx Statistician Guru

Posts : 8472
Reputation : 222
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 73
Location : Monroe NY

Back to top Go down

Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too Empty Re: Polar Blast 2.0 Thursday-Friday, Some Snow Too

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 8 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum