March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

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March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:19 pm

Here is my final call snow map



The changeover from rain or mixed precipitation to snow should occur in NYC around Midnight. Probably closer to 10pm-11pm for those N&W. This is a highly volatile forecast due to the lack of confidence in temperatures. If it takes longer than expected to changeover, specifically for those in central/southern NJ, then these amounts would be on the lower end of their ranges. The mid-level trough tracking into the northeast will collide with a southwesterly flow to produce precipitation. The best lift will be concentrated to those north of the baroclinic zone, but given the upper air dynamics, H7 VV's will spread as far north as the lower Hudson Valley area. There may be break in the action mid to late morning Thursday but a second wave should develop along the front and bring additional snowfall around Noon to mid-afternoon.

Use this thread for observations

Happy tracking!


Last edited by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 06, 2015 11:02 am; edited 5 times in total

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Quietace on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:21 pm

Currently 47.8....50s maybe 10 miles to my south...

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Quietace on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:22 pm

Look where R/S line is out west

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by syosnow94 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:25 pm

Quietace is a nice kid. A little blunt. Sometimes sarcastic, but not derogatory in any way. Relax everyone!!
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:29 pm

Ace we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Quietace on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:30 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:31 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:31 pm

Nice map, 5-9 is more than I expected you to show, I hope I hit the higher end or at least 6-7. Ace, see banter, no problem : )
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by nutleyblizzard on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:33 pm

Latest SREFS bumped north again! My town is near the edge of the 1.00 line. C'mon models keep chugging north!!!
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Quietace on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:35 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
Absolutely

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:38 pm

Quietace wrote:Look where R/S line is out west

Is that placement a good or a bad thing? Not really sure what you are pointing out.
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:46 pm

Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:
Quietace wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Ace  we look to be good but in your best opinion when do you think we see the change over for us
3-5am in m opinion....

Thank you Ace.And with that said do you think we see the numbers projected
Absolutely

Thanks Ace
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by skinsfan1177 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:51 pm

One other thing how can we track the cold air and where it is currently?
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by amugs on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:53 pm

Frank great map - was expecting as I have said all along 4-8" and I feel that IF the get the frontal boundary to tick north we may see the higher end of this amount. The dynamics are going to be great and once again just north of the r/s line it will puke snow - if you are under that line you will see what I mean.

The models are starting to pick up on these dynamics and the moisture fetch that Rb  and Frank were discussing earlier this week. This has very good potential and will be a HAPPY ENDING for just about everyone on this forum.

Onto meoscale models for updates here peeps and I forget who it was that said "bust" but that is just pure trolling and  ignorance IMO after all the information posted and discussed. A bust is Juno for those of us in Juno who received next to nothing

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Taffy on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:56 pm

Anyone else out there that can't see the map?
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

Frank, the BLACK zone is the best (featuring a one Boston, Massachusetts) Twisted Evil

Great map. Awaiting Upton Update.
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:One other thing how can we track the cold air and where it is currently?

Use Wunderground skins... if you use the WonderMap there are options you can add like frontal boundaries and weather stations.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.2&lon=-75.9&zoom=6&rad=1&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=0&hur=0

On the right side, click on weather stations and fronts. Gives you an idea where things are at. I don't know why it doesn't show up here


Last edited by Dunnzoo on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:57 pm

Thank you Frank for keeping us informed...and doing so much juggling with really 2 careers!!..heres to everyone being safe and enjoying a March snow storm...I enjoy the thrill of watching all the weather banter, having enough snow for a snowman/sledride,and one last snow day to spend with my child!!..ps..currently 42 and raining.
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by SNOW MAN on Wed Mar 04, 2015 2:58 pm

Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by essexcountypete on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:03 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

Me either.
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Dunnzoo on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:05 pm

I have no problem seeing it

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by SoulSingMG on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:05 pm

18z NAM says 'oh holllllld up one second...'
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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by HEATMISER on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:06 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:18z NAM says 'oh holllllld up one second...'
In a good way or bad way!!

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Math23x7 on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:07 pm

5" of snow would put NYC at 40". FWIW, Boston needs 2" to break their seasonal snow record.

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Re: March 4-5, 2015 Storm - Final Call/Obs

Post by Frank_Wx on Wed Mar 04, 2015 3:08 pm

SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

essexcountypete wrote:
SNOW MAN wrote:
Taffy wrote:Anyone else out there that can't see the map?

I can't see it either.

Me either.

How about now?


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2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 31.5"
2017-2018: 11.4"

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