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Long Range Thread 8.0

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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Mon Oct 05, 2015 3:00 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/651069828740984832Things are looking great for us with the warm anomalies in the 3.4 region. Best forcing looks to be setting up by the dateline.

Nutley,

This is absolutely fantastic news - as I have and I know you have as well on here been harping since the summer or late summer how important for our dear winter it is for this area of the EPAC to be warm and it is a Vasin Wide event and it set up near the dateline - that is the trop forcing. If we can get region 4 to warm as much and I think it is then we will be in good shape for this upcoming winter. Hey, next year we are looking at La Nada/Nina so let's get it while and if we can. If it is a back loaded winter as we have seen in the past then fine no problem but if we can get a cold December like 2002-03 then we are in big business. QBO postive which is okay at this point tis from Isotherm :September 30mb QBO value has risen to +12.07, solidly westerly. Will be another factor to monitor for the ensuing winter. Very high likelihood that the QBO will average positive for DJFM.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 ENSO10052015b

This is where we are at :
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 ENSO10052015b


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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 05, 2015 5:28 pm

1982-1983, a mod to strong El Nino year, the AMO was negative but the mean NAO for the ensuing winter was positive.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 PaL4q53Cq8

1972-1973, another Nino year, the AMO was also negative and the NAO was positive

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 VFiO6zycwC

Obviously these correlations are looked at as black and white, but the NAO/AMO correlation is difficult to understand during El Nino events

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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by sroc4 Mon Oct 05, 2015 6:07 pm

AMO is currently positive and has been for some time now with the exception of Jan through April 2014. As you pointed out the NAO was mostly positive Between Jan through April.  Prior to that there was another transient neg AMO during the months of Nov/Dec/Jan 2011/2012.  The last time the AMO was neg for more than just a few months you have to go back to the early to mid 1990's.  

Here are the current and historical AMO values with Jan starting the column on the left
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/amon.us.data

NAO values:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nao.data


Referencing an article written by Joe Daleo here are the general associations with AMO and NAO values...again as a whole, not for transient time frames.  Compared to the current Atlantic SST.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 <a href=Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Amo_na10" />
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1

As you can see the SST Anomalies match up with the 1965-1974 time frames.  As per the image above we have a mostly negative NAO throughout that time frame.  Within that time frame you have 1965-1966 and 1972-1973 both of which were strong El Ninos.  You also have 1963-1964 as well which was a moderate el Nino year.  

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Refernece the NAO link again notice that during the three El Nino years I listed above a neg NAO predominate throught the winter season. 72-73 had a neg NAO in Jan positive in Feb and neutral to neg in March and april.  The anomaly map Frank posted above does not match very well given the NAO therefore there were other factors at play.  The AMO was in the pprocess of flipping at that time as well.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/nao.data

There is no doubt that the equation is multifactorial; however, there are some general inferences that can be made with regards to AMO and NAO and a general relationship between the two depending on the phase of the AMO.  Obviously my point in not to make a 1 to 1 relationship here and Of course other drivers play an integral part in the outcome of the overall equation as well.  My point is that there is some validity to stating that the set up in the Atlantic at this stage "might" lead to a sustained NAO this winter.

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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by billg315 Mon Oct 05, 2015 6:17 pm

Sustained neg NAO?
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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by docstox12 Mon Oct 05, 2015 6:25 pm

February 1983 snowstorm.....to this day,I have not seen a snowstorm with 6 straight hours of 3 inch per hour accumulation rates.WITHOUT any letups!!!
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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Oct 05, 2015 9:40 pm

I'll be honest, the correlation is not strong enough for me to use it with conviction. Since the mid 90s we have been in a warm phase. As of today, the AMO remains in a warm phase. We've had memorable and impressive -NAO winters since the mid 90s. I probably need to take the time to research AMO more.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Image001

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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by Snow88 Tue Oct 06, 2015 9:34 am

GFS and ensembles keep showing a storm coming out of the gulf at the end of the run
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Post by devsman Tue Oct 06, 2015 10:03 am

Was going to bring up storm in gulf but seemed so far away that I didn't. But that's where Sandy came from and same time frame so definitely interesting. Does the Euro show anything?
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:23 pm

Hey guys I posted this in Banter being its 384 hrs out, Yes I noted same place as sandy and yesterday one run had a direct hit on the area with strong winds and crazy precip, but its 348 hrs out maybe a bit less but it sure has been consistent. Unfortunently the rest of the models only go out to 240 hrs (why is that?) so we won't know until its within 240 hrs if they match, I did not something percolating at 240 hrs on Euro in the Yucatan area so that may be it.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Oct 06, 2015 12:25 pm

devsman wrote:Was going to bring up storm in gulf but seemed so far away that I didn't. But that's where Sandy came from and same time frame so definitely interesting. Does the Euro show anything?

Also to note climatology favors east coast runs with storms that come from there in October so may be something to watch down the road.
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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by amugs Tue Oct 06, 2015 1:36 pm

CA SST analog forecast DJF blownup USA:

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 32K97T0

This is somewhat unnerving at this point - east coast is spiking here peeps, un-comfortable . Do not know if it actually has a grip on the dateline warming in regions 4 and 3.4.

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Post-837-0-48978000-1444151203

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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:00 pm

In what respect, mugs?

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 06, 2015 2:43 pm

rb924119 wrote:In what respect, mugs?

that the warm waters where basin wide but congregated around the 1.2 region as the warmest waters - if I am reading this correctly, my first  time through this with nino so i am a Nino virgin hahahaha!!

Anyway, I can relax after reading this tweet - maybe I got ahead of myself with this above.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336

Take the train to the dateline yahooooooooooooo!!


Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Olra-30d


All is good and the ship is righted - the map just caught me off guard I guess. Again my first time posting for nino's so I have some to learn.

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:19 pm

I'm not sure what this basin wide Nino stuff is I know it's better for us for winter can so.done give an easy explanation?
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Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Empty Re: Long Range Thread 8.0

Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:21 pm

amugs wrote:
rb924119 wrote:In what respect, mugs?

that the warm waters where basin wide but congregated around the 1.2 region as the warmest waters - if I am reading this correctly, my first  time through this with nino so i am a Nino virgin hahahaha!!

Anyway, I can relax after reading this tweet - maybe I got ahead of myself with this above.

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/651422220980494336

Take the train to the dateline yahooooooooooooo!!


Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Olra-30d


All is good and the ship is righted - the map just caught me off guard I guess. Again my first time posting for nino's so I have some to learn.

Oh haha I see. Don't forget, that map was of ANOMALIES, so yeah, it's totally reasonable that the darker colors are in region 1.2. Waters that are normally in the 40's and 50's are now in the 60's. The warmest waters are still well off to the west, but are slowly being advected eastward, which is why you're continuing to see the colors darken in 1.2; the anomalies are getting larger as the waters from the central and western Pacific are warming those off the South American coastline as they mix together. You'll know when the Nino is starting to wind down when the water temperatures are nearly uniform basin-wide, and actually start to "cool off" toward the western Pacific. Just like with the atmosphere, where water leaves it must be replaced, so it will start to upwell in the source region (western/west-central Pacific).

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:24 pm

And that plot from the tweet is staggering. Like...D@MN. lol

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Post by rb924119 Tue Oct 06, 2015 3:34 pm

MY GOD:

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 ECM_12_opNH_H500DP_0228

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Post by amugs Tue Oct 06, 2015 5:33 pm

That map is a beautiful sight. This is how I envision our wunter, Aleutian liw, nice pna from the west into bc and Canada and trough east with a negative NAO block

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Post by skinsfan1177 Tue Oct 06, 2015 7:54 pm

What are we looking at for the big change and temp wise of course if it verifys.
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 7:59 am

From Isotherm:
Fairly robust burst of positive 850-Hpa U anomalies in the 180-140W region, indicative of the westerly wind burst. This will probably induce a further warming of regions 3.4/3 and even region 4 in the coming week. Recent CFSV2 runs continue to suggest that region 1.2 will be gradually declining over the next several weeks to levels eventually sub +2.0c. My guess is this may occur by early November.

Laymen terms - region 3.4 and 4 are warming up which is evident at eh Dateline (the international dateline which is at 180W on our space ship we call earth - think about that one!). East regions from this will be cooling. This is very good news for the upcoming winter.

Here i sthe bathtub of or should I say HOT TUB!!!!
A large area of convection is focusing right over those 30C SST's in the Nino 4 region !!!
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Post-564-0-43703400-1444215502

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Post by nutleyblizzard Wed Oct 07, 2015 8:18 am

amugs wrote:From Isotherm:
Fairly robust burst of positive 850-Hpa U anomalies in the 180-140W region, indicative of the westerly wind burst. This will probably induce a further warming of regions 3.4/3 and even region 4 in the coming week. Recent CFSV2 runs continue to suggest that region 1.2 will be gradually declining over the next several weeks to levels eventually sub +2.0c. My guess is this may occur by early November.

Laymen  terms - region 3.4 and 4 are warming up which is evident at eh Dateline (the international dateline which is at 180W on our space ship we call earth - think about that one!). East regions from this will be cooling. This is very good news for the upcoming winter.

Here i sthe bathtub of or should I say HOT TUB!!!!
A large area of convection is focusing right over those 30C SST's in the Nino 4 region !!!
Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 Post-564-0-43703400-1444215502
That's very good to see. As long as the best forcing stays that far west, that in turn should keep the GOA low south of the Aleutians and then we'll be in great shape. Thumbs up
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Post by algae888 Wed Oct 07, 2015 9:00 am

mugs the pna spike is going to be enhanced by hurricane oho which is east of Hawaii and headed towards Alaska. this will push record breaking heat into the n/w and upper mid west next week. will this hurricane have an impact on sst in the pacific off the west coast?
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Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:39 am

algae888 wrote:mugs the pna spike is going to be enhanced by hurricane oho which is east of Hawaii and headed towards Alaska. this will push record breaking heat into the n/w and upper mid west next week. will this hurricane have an impact on sst in the pacific off the west coast?

It could give an upwelling affect to that area butt hat may be a small area or a spec in the overall picture. There is WWB (Westerly Wind Burst) being recorded off the South American west coast that is showing a westward movement of the warmer waters from region 1.2 out towards 3 and 3.4. if this is the case then I believe this hurricane does not have much impact on the sst but for small period of time.

A WWB will help move the warm waters at he initial surface layers out along with its direction - westward. Think of it as the East and NE winds we experienced this weekend on our coast for an analogy.

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 10:42 am

Swiped this from one JB's boys :

Look at the westward hot tub, forcing setting up near the dateline, going as planned if not better - Am I making a meteorological point here or being an annoying Joe and kicking the dog with this?

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 2015279cp

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 2015279cpd26

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Post by Grselig Wed Oct 07, 2015 11:09 am

Mugs, when it comes sharing potential good winter weather you are not kicking a dead dog. You are giving a living dog a nice refreshing bowl of water and some tasty bacon.
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Post by rb924119 Wed Oct 07, 2015 2:58 pm

All hail? Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 ECM_12_opNH_H500DP_0162

Long Range Thread 8.0 - Page 17 ECM_12_opNH_H500DP_0240

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Post by amugs Wed Oct 07, 2015 3:10 pm

Rb^^^^^ that is impressive - again give me this come Jan and Feb and I will........................ drunken savior party

Anyway, now that it looks like we have the pattern what will happen to that ULL the GFS and EURO are showing coming out of the tropics region? Hope we can capture that in this pattern.

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