Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:30 pm

lol okay I'll take the blame good one

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by frank 638 on Sat Jan 09, 2016 9:42 pm

Just like frank said I think we will see snow by end of Jan into Feb if not I will burn my rock salt and my shovel then I will take the blame .

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by dad4twoboys on Sat Jan 09, 2016 10:51 pm

OK... If Frank did look into the first week of February what do you see there towards the 5th-6th. just a peek into your crystal ball. I haven't dropped the blade on the truck since last season and I have boldly booked a trip to company conference in Philly.
A little ABRACADABRA Frank  savior !! (I sense a waffling HECS will have me in a heightened sense of uneasiness)

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Jan 09, 2016 11:57 pm

dad4twoboys wrote:OK... If Frank did look into the first week of February what do you see there towards the 5th-6th. just a peek into your crystal ball. I haven't dropped the blade on the truck since last season and I have boldly booked a trip to company conference in Philly.
A little ABRACADABRA Frank  savior !! (I sense a waffling HECS will have me in a heightened sense of uneasiness)

" />

If the sudden Stratospheric Warming event occurs - which I think will between January 20th-25th - then a new and reloaded winter pattern should ensue around the 2nd week of February. I'm expecting February to be our worse month in terms of cold and snow. I've been consistent with that since my Winter Outlook

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Radz on Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:01 am

I know we are still 8 days out, but i hope this S&E scenario doesn't gain credibility... would hate to waste this potential powder keg on the fish...
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:14 am

Gee, I wonder if that S and E bias is like the one we have had around here for the last five years,LOL!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 12:05 pm

My winter predictions in the contest we have were based upon a feeling, (which is largely in line with what Frank's take on this winter has been I think), that we were going to see a lot of above normal temperatures and rain in December and January, but that we would get some sharp cold spells along with some big coastal storm opportunities in February and March. So far, the first half has verified, let's see if my gut was right on the second half.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:35 pm

Just think, one year ago today, around this time, we had our 2nd meetup at Mustang Harry's in midtown and people were complaining about how uneventful the winter had been (despite the clippers from earlier in the week).  Then Frank showed us the EURO ensemble mean for January 24th and said that he hadn't seen that all winter and that it was the timeframe to watch.  Sure enough, that was when the fun began in terms of having a snowy pattern.  3.7" of snow fell prior to the 24th.  46.6" fell from that point onwards.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Jan 10, 2016 4:45 pm

Math23x7 wrote:Just think, one year ago today, around this time, we had our 2nd meetup at Mustang Harry's in midtown and people were complaining about how uneventful the winter had been (despite the clippers from earlier in the week).  Then Frank showed us the EURO ensemble mean for January 24th and said that he hadn't seen that all winter and that it was the timeframe to watch.  Sure enough, that was when the fun began in terms of having a snowy pattern.  3.7" of snow fell prior to the 24th.  46.6" fell from that point onwards.

Yessir, winter is far from over....

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by billg315 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 6:35 pm

I have far from given up on winter, and am well aware that some of our biggest snowstorms traditionally come from late Jan through March. So I am patiently waiting to see how it all pans out. And it is true we didn't have much of a snow threat before late Jan last year. That said (here is where I'll temporarily play the role of Debbie Downer. Sorry!) there are some factors that require me to temper my enthusiasm. Last winter was not nearly as warm as this winter even before it turned. Also we DO have an El Niño. And while I understand and appreciate the arguments that it's not all about El Niño, history does tell us that El Niño winters simply aren't known for being cold and snowy around here. And that is consistent with what we've seen so far. I can't completely ignore that. So I have to brace myself for the possibility that what we've seen so far could be a harbinger of what we'll see (or not see) for the next 2 months. That of course doesn't mean we won't see any cold or any snow. Look at 1983: not a snowy winter in terms of number of storms but it featured one of our more historic blizzards in February. At this point we just need to see how it plays out. I don't think anything is a "lock" at this point (as it rarely is with weather).
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Grselig on Sun Jan 10, 2016 7:09 pm

I think Debbie Downer should be banned. I think she is a troll from the old ABC site.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:27 pm

Man we need a break. Las weekend today's rain looked like it could have been a good snowstorm. 3 days ago the clipper looked like it could put down a couple of inches now just flurries, and the kick in the teeth is.........I just read the Mo Mo! I know there's still time and it's 7 days out but CMONNNN!!!!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 10, 2016 9:35 pm

billg315 wrote:My winter predictions in the contest we have were based upon a feeling, (which is largely in line with what Frank's take on this winter has been I think), that we were going to see a lot of above normal temperatures and rain in December and January, but that we would get some sharp cold spells along with some big coastal storm opportunities in February and March. So far, the first half has verified, let's see if my gut was right on the second half.

Yes sir. February is bound to deliver something...

Math23x7 wrote:Just think, one year ago today, around this time, we had our 2nd meetup at Mustang Harry's in midtown and people were complaining about how uneventful the winter had been (despite the clippers from earlier in the week).  Then Frank showed us the EURO ensemble mean for January 24th and said that he hadn't seen that all winter and that it was the timeframe to watch.  Sure enough, that was when the fun began in terms of having a snowy pattern.  3.7" of snow fell prior to the 24th.  46.6" fell from that point onwards.

Fun time. Looking at LR projections I feel fairly confident we'll see a similar turn around. I will admit not as confident as I was this time last year, but under strong El Nino conditions you can understand my skepticism.

syosnow94 wrote:Man we need a break.  Las weekend today's rain looked like it could have been a good snowstorm. 3 days ago the clipper looked like it could put down a couple of inches now just flurries, and the kick in the teeth is.........I just read the Mo Mo!  I know there's still time and it's 7 days out but CMONNNN!!!!

I am probably not going to post the next 2 days.






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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Jan 10, 2016 10:58 pm

Re: Jan 17th-19th threat

Post by sroc4 Today at 7:51 pm
Let's leave this stuff in banter guys. Cp you are correct.

YES!!! Who's the man.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Math23x7 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 12:33 am

So we have had a lot of people join the forum since the Old Channel 7 Chat Board was shut down in 2013.  I posted this in mid-January last year and I will post it again for you here:  As a lot of you probably know, the 2011-12 winter was a mild and mostly uneventful winter.  The October 2011 snowstorm teased a lot of us (myself included) into thinking that it would follow suit of the epic 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters.  Well November and December 2011 had no snow and it was exceptionally warm (though not as warm as this past November and December).  At times, January seemed promising as we finally saw some low temperatures in the teens on various days.  I have a feeling that it was because the Arctic Oscillation (which had been positive the previous two months) had turned negative in mid-January.  Also on January 21st, 2012, we had our first measurable snow event in NYC since the previous October.  While it did warm up a couple of days later, there still seemed to be some hope down the road.  Then there was another chance for a measurable snow event for February 11th, 2012.  As it turned out, this system was warmer and drier than anticipated as we had just flurries in the low to mid 30s.  To add insult to injury, we lost the -AO.  And the forecast called for another warm up after that weekend.  So later that day, after I got home from work a little after 5 PM, I went to the 7-online board and saw a post by Frank stating that he had officially thrown in the towel on the 2011-12 winter pretty much giving up any hope of any significant east coast snowstorm the rest of the winter.  I died on the inside reading it, but it was reality, a harsh reality in that regard.

So my question to the admins and moderators:  How far away are we from facing the depressing situation that happened on 2/11/12 as I described above?

Again, here is the youtube video I came across of the non-storm on that day (the Local on the 8s begins at 0:16 in the video).  Both the radar and the 7-day forecast are very telling in the video:


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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 5:47 am

mike to early to throw in the towel for this year. however with that said very discouraging runs on all models last night. even with a great set up timing is all off for sat system. I do think we will snow before jan ends with this set up just not this weekend.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 6:59 am

Another cutter with rain how surprising...
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:58 am

algae888 wrote:mike to early to throw in the towel for this year. however with that said very discouraging runs on all models last night. even with a great set up timing is all off for sat system. I do think we will snow before jan ends with this set up just not this weekend.

So this is what we've been reduced to. Maybe some snow before January ends 3 weeks from now. No one's fault for posting it, but I for one am tired of all the constant optimism the past 10 days after our historically bad December, only to have it disappear as we get closer to each event.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:01 am

syosnow94 wrote:
algae888 wrote:mike to early to throw in the towel for this year. however with that said very discouraging runs on all models last night. even with a great set up timing is all off for sat system. I do think we will snow before jan ends with this set up just not this weekend.

So this is what we've been reduced to.  Maybe some snow before January ends 3 weeks from now.  No one's fault for posting it, but I for one am tired of all the constant optimism the past 10 days after our historically bad December, only to have it disappear as we get closer to each event.

What was said is that the pattern this month would be much more favorable for snow chances...and it is. It was also stated it is a transition month. I never heard of an individual who doesn't like optimism.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Grselig on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:09 am

After reading SROC and Frank's posts it is clear to me that Debbie Downer is influencing our weather. A rainy weekend is depressing from so much potential. My guess is this woman lives in a State where all the TV shows are PG and are in dull fuzzy black and white. Not even PG13. The speed limit is 40. Nobody ever drives over 85. Of course their cars are all polished grey. Halloween scares them so it is banned.

The only music they listen to is "Weightless" http://www.patheos.com/blogs/geneveith/2011/10/the-most-relaxing-and-most-boring-music-ever/

The food served is boiled chicken with soggy green broccoli. Can't put any cheese on it. Salt and pepper and cayenne have been banned. No sugar either. Jeans are always comfortably baggy and never torn. The weather is always a high of 73 and a low of 69. Its always cloudy but there is never any heavy wind or strong rain. Just plain old drizzle. No snow. EVER. No rainbows. Naturally NJ Strong Weather is also censored. That is Debbie Downer. Let's hope she gets out of here not to mess with February potential.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:10 am

sroc4 wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
algae888 wrote:mike to early to throw in the towel for this year. however with that said very discouraging runs on all models last night. even with a great set up timing is all off for sat system. I do think we will snow before jan ends with this set up just not this weekend.

So this is what we've been reduced to.  Maybe some snow before January ends 3 weeks from now.  No one's fault for posting it, but I for one am tired of all the constant optimism the past 10 days after our historically bad December, only to have it disappear as we get closer to each event.

What was said is that the pattern this month would be much more favorable for snow chances...and it is.  It was also stated it is a transition month.  I never heard of an individual who doesn't like optimism.

Well said said sroc
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:48 am

Math23x7 wrote:So we have had a lot of people join the forum since the Old Channel 7 Chat Board was shut down in 2013.  I posted this in mid-January last year and I will post it again for you here:  As a lot of you probably know, the 2011-12 winter was a mild and mostly uneventful winter.  The October 2011 snowstorm teased a lot of us (myself included) into thinking that it would follow suit of the epic 2009-10 and 2010-11 winters.  Well November and December 2011 had no snow and it was exceptionally warm (though not as warm as this past November and December).  At times, January seemed promising as we finally saw some low temperatures in the teens on various days.  I have a feeling that it was because the Arctic Oscillation (which had been positive the previous two months) had turned negative in mid-January.  Also on January 21st, 2012, we had our first measurable snow event in NYC since the previous October.  While it did warm up a couple of days later, there still seemed to be some hope down the road.  Then there was another chance for a measurable snow event for February 11th, 2012.  As it turned out, this system was warmer and drier than anticipated as we had just flurries in the low to mid 30s.  To add insult to injury, we lost the -AO.  And the forecast called for another warm up after that weekend.  So later that day, after I got home from work a little after 5 PM, I went to the 7-online board and saw a post by Frank stating that he had officially thrown in the towel on the 2011-12 winter pretty much giving up any hope of any significant east coast snowstorm the rest of the winter.  I died on the inside reading it, but it was reality, a harsh reality in that regard.

So my question to the admins and moderators:  How far away are we from facing the depressing situation that happened on 2/11/12 as I described above?

Again, here is the youtube video I came across of the non-storm on that day (the Local on the 8s begins at 0:16 in the video).  Both the radar and the 7-day forecast are very telling in the video:


I was hammered by the board when I said this could end up like that 11/12 winter. I think because I said it way too early. Either way, I still think it might end up like that winter. Maybe even worse. We'll see what happens next week and I'll throw in the towel completely if nothing happens. Yes, I know February has had great storms. But face it, this winter is far from normal and no month has given us any reason to believe anything is going to happen.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:11 am

If I could change my guess for snowfall in the contest I would put 0, I am just that fed up. I say never give up but not a happy camper atm. And sorry but what is this Debbie downer stuff, I see no posts with someone with that name. Sroc I understand you sday its not over but it just doesn't look good and your post was not encouraging at all though very well written, you can't help it if the news isn't good. Heck at least your not telling us theres going to be a blizzard when there likely will not be.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:27 am

As the days dwindle we can try to draw comparisons to previous years that started slow and ended strong but IMO we can't do that this year because no winter has ever started off this badly. I've lived through several strong El Niño years and winter wise they have all sucked plain and simple. This year being the strongest El Niño ever I never had much hope but I've learned from the experts here that many things influence our pattern. That being said they all seem to be overpowered by HellNino this year.

I'm sure a pattern change will happen eventually but if this turns out like the winter of 82-83 yes there was a great blizzard in Febraury but that was pretty much the winter. To me a winter isn't one great storm it's suppose to be 3-4 months of mostly cold weather with storm chances scattered about that time period. My favorite times for snow are December and January because of the holidays and low sun angles which make melting minor even on 40 degree days. I'll take a snowy Febraury and March should it happen but so far this is historically sh!tty.

Just had to vent a little. This isn't shooting the messengers because they have been straight with us all along. They can't help it if we don't like what they have to say.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:38 am

Well, after the extremely warm November I knew that the pooch was pretty well scrooed for a killer winter like 93-94 or 95-96 where snow is on the ground from late November through early April.I agree with CP on those prior Hellnino years which are absolutely terrible for snow lovers.The Long Range crew here has worked long and hard plotting the various atmospheric changes and there is some hope.Better to get a snowy Feb and Mar rather than a 97-98 year.I've gone through periods in my years of observing where there are 4 or 5 terrible winters in a row with 20 inches of snow or less.We have been very blessed the last 15 years around these parts.
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