Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:56 pm

Ski resorts wish they had all that fresh powder that fell on NYC.

by **jimv45** Mon Jan 25, 2016 3:58 pm

yea doc people in Hunter Mountain were upset !! Of course they make it but just not the same.

by **docstox12** Mon Jan 25, 2016 4:02 pm

I was thinking that jim.Not a skier but figured the real stuff fresh powder is the best.The way these storms are going the last five years, too bad there aren't any mountains at the Jersey Shore and Long Island,LOL!

by **Math23x7** Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:54 pm

Vic Dibitetto's news shot from this past storm concerning Bread and milk is hilarious. Frank, I know you will especially like it:

by **dkodgis** Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:15 am

Here in Circleville, northern Orange County, I sit...lamenting my season total 1.5 inches (and that is being generous)...and then I see the news and how Queens and Staten Island residents are getting no plowing service. I should not complain but once in a while i still do. Oh well. I could be standing out in the street with my car buried and no place to shovel the snow and no way to get to work or shop for food. I will take the 1.5 inches!

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:52 am

If I was still in Mahwah, it would have taken 2 or 3 hours to shovel out and clean off the car,driveway and walks, after the 20 or so inches they got.Up here in Monroe, my car is in a nice garage, a guy plows my long driveway, and I used a little electric snow blower to clean the short walk in front of my house of the one foot of fluffy powder.All of 15 minutes.

Every cloud has a silver lining Northern HV Guys.

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:27 pm

Seems like there is a slight buzz that winter is over. Considering the suprises that might be a really good thing!

by **algae888** Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:45 pm

Grselig wrote:Seems like there is a slight buzz that winter is over. Considering the suprises that might be a really good thing!

Well if think about it winter never really started minus the blizzard on Saturday. However I haven't heard that winter is over yet. The next seven or so days will feature temperatures Near to slightly above normal and probably a cutter sometime next week. After the cutter it will get cold again late next week and there looks to be a really strong ridge out west developing. Still too many factors to consider what's going to happen for most of February. There are some good signs. Anyway this winter may end up being a one hit wonder. we shall see

by **algae888** Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:50 pm

This is from a knowledgeable poster from another board for the mid-atlantic region
"EPS shows some interesting solutions after the wrapped up storm moves away. A handful have a follow up wave riding the boundary through here. One thing I noticed also is ens mean precip is .6-.7 for the 6 day period between the 4th-10th. That pretty wet for a mean at long leads.

A +pna pattern alone can't really drive a big storm. Too progressive. But overall our chances for more snow after Feb 4th seem at least slightly above normal. Last night's weeklies imply that snow chances continue through the balance of the month. If LR ensembles are underestimating the strength of the -ao then things could get pretty rockin around here."

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:14 pm

Visited Mom in Fort Lee today and even with a lot of melting, piles of snow were incredible.Driving down from Monroe NY to Fort Lee NJ brought back a memory from December 1966 when we visited my Uncle in Westtown NY, near the High Point area driving from Fort Lee.There were 1 or 2 dirty, wet inches in Fort Lee that day and when we arrived in Westtown, there was 20 inches on the ground, drifts of 3 to 4 feet and constant snow showers all day long.Those were the days areas N and W of the City got pounded.Exact opposite now.Driving down to Fort Lee today, the snow got deeper and deeper along the way.Don't know if this S and E trend of big snowstorms these years is climate change but it is a CHANGE of some sort and I hope someday somebody will explain it to me.

BTW, Fort Lee had over 25 inches and Westtown barely 7 from this storm.Polar opposite of Dec. 1966.

by **billg315** Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:13 pm

This winter could very well be a one-hit wonder. That certainly happened with the El Nino of 1982-83 where the mid February storm was a record-setter but it was pretty much all of the snow for the whole winter. But, I think there is enough time left that we could have some threats from mid-Feb to mid-March.

by Bkdude Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:51 pm

billg315 wrote:This winter could very well be a one-hit wonder. That certainly happened with the El Nino of 1982-83 where the mid February storm was a record-setter but it was pretty much all of the snow for the whole winter. But, I think there is enough time left that we could have some threats from mid-Feb to mid-March.

Better then no hit wonder

by **docstox12** Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:15 pm

The one hit wonder snowstorm of February 1983 was the only snowstorm I have seen in observing since 1960 where there was a 3 inch per hour rate for 6 straight hours without any stinking LULLS (I hate that word) in Mahwah NJ.I have not seen that before or since, so I would take that in a heartbeat.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:58 pm

billg315 wrote:This winter could very well be a one-hit wonder. That certainly happened with the El Nino of 1982-83 where the mid February storm was a record-setter but it was pretty much all of the snow for the whole winter. But, I think there is enough time left that we could have some threats from mid-Feb to mid-March.

Have a feeling there will be a few moderate and CAD events before this winter is up, what I would expect from a nino pattern.

by **docstox12** Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:27 am

Plenty of time for that.Only January 27th.Three years ago early March up here we had 17 inches.

Pattern needs a reset after that monster.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:53 pm

Euro doesn't feel winter is over for the 15 day control : ) Though this verifying as shown is less than likely but who knows.

Wx Banter Thread 2.0 - Page 20 Euro_c11

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 27, 2016 1:56 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro doesn't feel winter is over for the 15 day control : ) Though this verifying as shown is less than likely but who knows.

I just realized this is the 00z.

by **frank 638** Wed Jan 27, 2016 2:52 pm

Its still to early for the Feb 11 storm it will change I hope we get that storm that

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Euro doesn't feel winter is over for the 15 day control : ) Though this verifying as shown is less than likely but who knows.

I just realized this is the 00z.

Only 15 days away? This is as good as done. Put it in the book as the broadcaster from the team I don't root for in NY would say.

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 27, 2016 5:20 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Euro doesn't feel winter is over for the 15 day control : ) Though this verifying as shown is less than likely but who knows.

How many fantasy storms has this crap put out this year? 10-15? Feel like its beating the GFS. European Piece of S*** model

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:16 pm

King Euro has been dethroned

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:23 pm

Ive never considered it a king, never sure why anyone else ever did, slightly higher verification scores on average and handles certain setups better but its busted on too many big winter storms for me to give it any more weight than any other major global models

by **NjWeatherGuy** Wed Jan 27, 2016 6:23 pm

Not to mention it spits out these crazy NESIS 5 if it verified storms in its LR all the time...

by **sroc4** Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:01 pm

That's the control guys. It can be used for a guid to see the location of where things want to be, not what is actually going to happen. This may not be far fetched though in the 15day. We'll see.

by **amugs** Wed Jan 27, 2016 7:20 pm

10 day pattern looks very enticing - 5-7 needs to be watched so does the 9-10 - maybe be even better due to higher heights and blocking in greenland. I am still calling for a PD 3 peeps 14th -17th - using teh analogs on this one from 1978 & 2003 - the pattern will be ripe by then for a major storm,

After this stupid cutter drives through here next week then we go back to winter - a stronger one I would prefer.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:17 pm

Another tornado in Florida, they have had quite a few lately. Headed down there in a few weeks, maybe I can get in on some severe weather action! The tornado on Cape Coral a few weeks ago was a mile from my brother's house.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 27, 2016 9:36 pm

Dunnzoo wrote:Another tornado in Florida, they have had quite a few lately. Headed down there in a few weeks, maybe I can get in on some severe weather action! The tornado on Cape Coral a few weeks ago was a mile from my brother's house.

Woah. Bring your storm chasing gear! Maybe Reed Trimmer will be down there

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