Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:13 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:There are only 2 days in the next 10 that look too warm for snow, Tuesday afternoon and evening, and Sunday.  THE EXACT TIME THAT EACH "SYSTEM" LOOKS TO AFFECT US!!! Laughing Laughing Laughing Thumbs up Thumbs up party party

It's now become personal. This winter is not only out to frustrate us it is now trying to demoralize, maim and destroy us. And day by day it is succeeding.

lol! lol! lol!

CP at Valley Forge!!!!


Last edited by docstox12 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:15 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:15 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm not giving up but I wanted to share I can't be to upset I have had my fair share and beyond the last couple of winters. Way above my average. So with that said I'm asking the snow Gods to deliver the goods to those northern folks!

You're a good man skins, I always want everybody to get heavy snow like the '96 STATEWIDE monster that nobody gets scrooed with "extremely sharp" cutoffs, substanence or whatever BS causes me to get 1 1/2 inches while 50 miles away gets 28 inches!
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:29 pm

docstox12 wrote:
NjWeatherGuy wrote:I think its too early to throw in the towel, this may be a severely backloaded winter that may catch many off guard.

A man of reason ! Agree completely.It's only Jan. 11th and if I remember, last year things did not get started until late January or early Feb.I have been thinking and saying all along this winter will see the big snow in late Feb or early March.

Last winter was nowhere near this though. I had snow on the ground Thanksgiving from a system that passed through a few days prior. I also had snow on my birthday last year. This year is different.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by HectorO on Mon Jan 11, 2016 7:36 pm

amugs wrote:This has been a frustrating pattern so far and I concur with sentiment son here and we all learn but going in we were saying a 2nd half to winter. It is not optimal I know and we want cold and storm chances in Dec through March - who the heck wants snow in the middle of March - it screws up spring right?
As one of my peers said to me today were is all the snow you were talking about in your winter outlook sarcastically like he knows and then started the yeah what going on? The models have been a let down so far especially the end in teh LR to a degree. The OP's are just terrible unless it is a cutter which it never seems to correct. The 18 Z I said this two years ago and will always - I HATE THAT FRICKIN' RUN!! Whew feel better - not because of what it showed a few days ago but just in general and the American models need to be overhauled, not upgraded - gutted and rebuilt. Watch when the para comes into full play - it will kick our proverbial behinds and we shouldn't look at the GooFuS.  
Unprecedented Nino pattern shaping up with some many other factors that would make Einstein scratch his head. Look we are at the 1/2 way point and many are ready to throw in teh towel - not until we get to teh 2nd week of Feb for me - we can always get a great ending through March.  Face it we have been soiled since this century and it is not over so we see what big Momma has to bring.

Snow storm middle March doesn't ruin spring all that much. It melts quick and saturates the grounds.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Jan 11, 2016 8:09 pm

HectorO wrote:
amugs wrote:This has been a frustrating pattern so far and I concur with sentiment son here and we all learn but going in we were saying a 2nd half to winter. It is not optimal I know and we want cold and storm chances in Dec through March - who the heck wants snow in the middle of March - it screws up spring right?
As one of my peers said to me today were is all the snow you were talking about in your winter outlook sarcastically like he knows and then started the yeah what going on? The models have been a let down so far especially the end in teh LR to a degree. The OP's are just terrible unless it is a cutter which it never seems to correct. The 18 Z I said this two years ago and will always - I HATE THAT FRICKIN' RUN!! Whew feel better - not because of what it showed a few days ago but just in general and the American models need to be overhauled, not upgraded - gutted and rebuilt. Watch when the para comes into full play - it will kick our proverbial behinds and we shouldn't look at the GooFuS.  
Unprecedented Nino pattern shaping up with some many other factors that would make Einstein scratch his head. Look we are at the 1/2 way point and many are ready to throw in teh towel - not until we get to teh 2nd week of Feb for me - we can always get a great ending through March.  Face it we have been soiled since this century and it is not over so we see what big Momma has to bring.

Snow storm middle March doesn't ruin spring all that much. It melts quick and saturates the grounds.

I've never considered the middle of March spring in these parts. The middle of April is even very iffy at times. You can't really depend on nice weather until May and every 200 years or so December.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by amugs on Mon Jan 11, 2016 10:06 pm

Right March is not spring but u know how people get they want winter to be over come this time when the days are getting longer and we set the clocks ahead.

Anywayat my son's hockey game he plays varsity, had 6 shifts tonight and almost scored, he us a freshman and started playing 2 years ago Dec.

My ice rink is back after a few days hiatus from the spring like temps.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Abba701 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:22 am

I think there is a 25 percent chance no snow at all or we break the record for least snow. Accu weathers long range doesn't look too good for Febuary.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:30 am

Abba701 wrote:I think there is a 25 percent chance no snow at all or we break the record for least snow. Accu weathers long range doesn't look too good for Febuary.

I would put 0 faith in the Accu weather long range. Anything they put out beyond 10 days is about as accurate as a 45 day forecast I could put out.

Until someone shows me that the El Nino is really weakening I have no faith in this winter.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:56 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Abba701 wrote:I think there is a 25 percent chance no snow at all or we break the record for least snow. Accu weathers long range doesn't look too good for Febuary.

I would put 0 faith in the Accu weather long range. Anything they put out beyond 10 days is about as accurate as a 45 day forecast I could put out.

Until someone shows me that the El Nino is really weakening I have no faith in this winter.

[/quotHow about this for me from NOAA


Today

Rain likely, mainly after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Wind chill values between 20 and 30. Light south wind increasing to 13 to 18 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.


Tonight

A chance of snow showers before midnight, then a chance of flurries between midnight and 3am. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 25. Wind chill values between 15 and 25. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Wednesday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 32. Wind chill values between 10 and 20. Breezy, with a west wind 16 to 23 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph.


Wednesday Night

Increasing clouds, with a low around 20. Wind chill values between 10 and 15. West wind 10 to 13 mph.


Thursday

Partly sunny, with a high near 34. West wind 9 to 11 mph.


Thursday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30.


Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 43.


Friday Night

A chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%.


Saturday

Rain likely, mainly after 2pm. Cloudy, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 70%.


Saturday Night

A chance of snow before 10pm, then a chance of rain between 10pm and 4am, then a chance of snow after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%.


Sunday

Partly sunny, with a high near 37.


Sunday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26.


M.L.King Day

Mostly sunny, with a high near 32.

Awesome forecast
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Grselig on Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:33 pm

All I can say is that SCROC, I hope you are correct. As always, I appreciate the time you, Frank, and everybody puts into the write-ups.

No sarcasm- I am kinda looking forward to my inch or less of snow. Just get the ground white!

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
127 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
127 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SNOW SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING COMMUTE...

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
THESE WILL BE LOCALLY MODERATE AND POSSIBLY HEAVY FOR A BRIEF
TIME. TEMPERATURES IN SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
TO STICK TO THE GROUND...CREATING SLIPPERY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE GUSTY...WITH VISIBILITIES
GETTING REDUCED TO A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR 1 INCH OR LESS.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND TRAVEL EXTRA
SLOWLY AND CAREFULLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:42 pm

Everyone take it easy shoveling. That first time out can be back braking.

Just be to be safe maybe let the wind blow it off the driveway tonight.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by RJB8525 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 1:57 pm

Hey its better nothing I'll even take some flurries on a nice cold day
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:06 pm

This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY
MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by sroc4 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:08 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.  

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY
MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.


Lmfao!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:33 pm

sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.  

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY
MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.


Lmfao!

The fact the NWS feels compelled to put out a statement like this shows you how soft and babied our society has become.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:34 pm

well it seems the writing in on the wall and I for one am throwing in the towel and giving up on this winter. the signs going forward are bleak at best and will outline my thinking here in the banter thread. we had a few good years in a row for snow lovers like myself and i was hoping for another one to materialize but I do not think it will happen. we are just over 6 weeks into meteorological winter and so far cpk has .1" of unknown precip. I lived through many a winter without snow but never 6 weeks like this. it's been the most frustrating winter in my life. the only thing that makes this year more bearable is the great winters we had in the last 3 years. anyway the snow lover in me will always keep me hoping and tracking but it's just not in the cards this year. here are my thoughts...

el-nino has really hurt us so far and now seems to be strengthening east and weakening west. not good. as others have posted it has caused the neg over the goa to be to close to the west coast and has flooded the US with mild pac air and forced ridging to take hold over the east which allowed for our record warm dec. even now as this ull has retrograded some to near the aluetians and the ao and nao have gone neg which allowed the PV to drop south into s. Canada and northern US our cold snaps have been only near normal. no cold air to work with!! that is our main ingredient for snow and with the ao and nao to go positive towards the end of jan we can write off the rest of this month. pac will flood the country after jan. 20th or so and who knows how long that will last.


MJO

this is the euro ensemble guidance from this morning. as you can see we are now leaving the favorable phases and heading back to where we were in December. this takes us into mid feb. phases 3,4 and 5 will not do it for us here in the east. unless this guidance is wrong we can write off cold and snow.
the strat our saving grace?

today

day 15
well as you can see there will probably be ssw event. however it looks as if it will effect Europe first. it should eventually get to our side of the globe but by the time we get to see it's effects it will be mid February. by that time winter is almost done. here is a part of a well known amateur and knowledgeable poster from another board....
"For what seems to be the third or fourth time in the past 30 days, rumors are again flying about an imminent Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event. If the past rumors are representative, discussion that the polar vortex will split at the stratospheric level may also proliferate. So far, only a minor stratospheric warming has occurred and the stratospheric polar vortex has not split.

because predictability of SSW events is poor beyond even 5 days, 360-hour forecasts are highly speculative. In short, just as one can’t have much confidence that such an event will occur near the end of January, one can’t rule out such a possibility either. Until one gets within a few days of the possible event, one can’t have confidence. In terms of predictability, the literature suggests that the timeframe for reasonably accurate forecasting is “several days in advance
So far, perhaps in response to two strong wave fluxes (wave 1 and the more important, wave 2), the stratospheric polar vortex was displaced and a minor warming event occurred from 5 mb and upward. Much of the stratosphere has remained very cold. Over the next 240 hours, little changes are expected in terms of stratospheric temperatures.
For now, some degree of watching is warranted. It is premature to conclude that an SSW event is likely given the forecasts to date and the limited horizon for accurate forecasting. The failed prior forecasts for SSWs from earlier this winter (December and January) and also repeated failed forecasts for the stratospheric polar vortex to split provide a vivid reminder that overconfidence in stratospheric forecasting can be hazardous. Nevertheless, “swings for the fences” remain all too common. IMO, given the literature on such events, caution until there is a strong body of evidence within a workable forecasting horizon, is the more prudent approach." Don S.
so I conclude that while I will be hopeful I am wrong the signs going forward imo are not very good for snow and cold. we have a brief window in the next ten days and then maybe late feb or early march. I predicted 17" of snow for cpk and unless we get a big storm that number could be in danger.
I will leave you with this image from today's gfs and ggem for day 10ish.


after this time around jan 21st look for above normal temps for awhile unless something drastically changes.



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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Tue Jan 12, 2016 2:52 pm

syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.  

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY
MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.


Lmfao!

The fact the NWS feels compelled to put out a statement like this shows you how soft and babied our society has become.

You do realize I wrote this right? Even the NWS wouldn't be this ridiculous.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:24 pm

I am trying to stay hopeful but am already getting ready to look into spring plans as it appears may be coming sooner than later. If nothing happens by the second week of Feb, we still could possibly see something but I will not be paying it any mind unless its a sure thing. Would be amazing to have zero snow this winter, sroc I think you are way to optimistic, if your going to see 50 inches of snow location would suggest that I would likely see near my 60 inches last year, if that happens you are a god.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:29 pm

Jman we are losing the battle for the Saturday storm next week we will have a few opportunities but right now guidance is dry and cold but not very cold. The last 10 days of January looks to be above normal on all ensemble guidance at this time. If we see any snow today it may be the only snow for the rest of this month I hope I'm wrong
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 3:45 pm

Usually this is how I feel in October and then March but this year its been from October and ongoing lol (except I am not happy, by March I usually am)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uGhov86GQbQ

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by syosnow94 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:00 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
syosnow94 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:This sounds serious. Everyone please use extreme caution

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

DANGEROUS SNOW FLURRIES WITH A POSSIBLE LIFE THREATENING SNOW SHOWER IN THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-103>105-107-NYZ067>071-130300-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-
157 PM EST TUE JAN 12 2016

SNOW FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THESE MAY LOCALLY CONTAIN HUNDREDS IF NOT THOUSANDS OF SNOW FLAKES FOR A BRIEF TIME.  

UNLESS YOU PUT ON YOUR WINDSHIELD WIPERS VISIBILITY
MAY BE REDUCED TO ZERO IF YOU SIT IDLE IN YOUR CAR FOR MORE THAN AN HOUR AND LET THE FLURRIES ACCUMULATE ON YOUR WINDSHIELD.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THESE CONDITIONS AND ACT ACCORDINGLY.


Lmfao!

The fact the NWS feels compelled to put out a statement like this shows you how soft and babied our society has become.

You do realize I wrote this right? Even the NWS wouldn't be this ridiculous.

Holy Crap CP You Got me. I swear. Unbelievable!!! Hook Line and Sinker.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by lglickman1 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:05 pm

Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over? thanks!

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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:16 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over?  thanks!

I do not think the pros here said that, in fact sroc believes he will see 50 inches and he is a smart guy, Frank also feels strong NYC will see above average snowfall. That being said I think people just can't move on from this weekends storm including myself. Come Monday we will all be beasting for the next one.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by Grselig on Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:21 pm

Has the TWC named tonights flurries. Zeus. Apollo. Poseidon. Atlas. This may be the only storm of the winter. Opportunity will be lost. With those winds Jim Cantore should be outside braving the devastating conditions.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

Post by algae888 on Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:22 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over?  thanks!
Yes. The ensamble guidance from several days ago showed a very promising pattern with a prolonged negative Ao and nao and a positive PNA. Since then guidance has flipped the Ao and nao towards positive after January 20th and for most of the remainder of this month. Plus the MJO is now headed towards unfavorable phases which was not the case last week. I guess in saying this can guidance be wrong past 10 days absolutely and I'm hoping it is but it doesn't look very promising right now. add in the raging El Nino which has stabilized and even warms in eastern areas which should allow the continental US to be flooded with pac air without the blocking. Also a ssw event if it occurs would likely favor Europe over North America. If you recall last week the GFS had storm after storm after storm with the troposphere polar vortex in southern Canada.. which is a great setup for getting snow storms here. However the vortex ended up in an unfavorable position / west central Canada and allowed this storm for Saturday to cut and next week it will drop down into the US suppressing most systems. As I mentioned in previous post in other threads it all comes down to timing weather and a good pattern or a bad pattern. The pattern we're in for the next 10 days is not bad actually it's good but it just looks like it won't produce for us and the models have backed off in the long range and now show an unfavorable pattern to end January.
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Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

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