Re: Wx Banter Thread 2.0

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:21 pm

Has the TWC named tonights flurries. Zeus. Apollo. Poseidon. Atlas. This may be the only storm of the winter. Opportunity will be lost. With those winds Jim Cantore should be outside braving the devastating conditions.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:22 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over? thanks!

Yes. The ensamble guidance from several days ago showed a very promising pattern with a prolonged negative Ao and nao and a positive PNA. Since then guidance has flipped the Ao and nao towards positive after January 20th and for most of the remainder of this month. Plus the MJO is now headed towards unfavorable phases which was not the case last week. I guess in saying this can guidance be wrong past 10 days absolutely and I'm hoping it is but it doesn't look very promising right now. add in the raging El Nino which has stabilized and even warms in eastern areas which should allow the continental US to be flooded with pac air without the blocking. Also a ssw event if it occurs would likely favor Europe over North America. If you recall last week the GFS had storm after storm after storm with the troposphere polar vortex in southern Canada.. which is a great setup for getting snow storms here. However the vortex ended up in an unfavorable position / west central Canada and allowed this storm for Saturday to cut and next week it will drop down into the US suppressing most systems. As I mentioned in previous post in other threads it all comes down to timing weather and a good pattern or a bad pattern. The pattern we're in for the next 10 days is not bad actually it's good but it just looks like it won't produce for us and the models have backed off in the long range and now show an unfavorable pattern to end January.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:33 pm

lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over? thanks!

Also can February produced for us yes but I'm not seeing any signs of anything promising early in February so our winter may be limited from February 10th through early March. El Ninos usually produce good February's around here but this one may be too much plus if we have 3 or 4 weeks of winter that's not really winter to me

by **CPcantmeasuresnow** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:48 pm

algae888 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over? thanks!
Also can February produced for us yes but I'm not seeing any signs of anything promising early in February so our winter may be limited from February 10th through early March. El Ninos usually produce good February's around here but this one may be too much plus if we have 3 or 4 weeks of winter that's not really winter to me

Bingo:

If we have snow from mid February to the end of March I'll take it, but as you said that's not a winter to me.

by **lglickman1** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:53 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:
lglickman1 wrote:Hey algae888, can you please explain how we went from such high hopes for a great pattern change to now saying winter is pretty much over? thanks!
Also can February produced for us yes but I'm not seeing any signs of anything promising early in February so our winter may be limited from February 10th through early March. El Ninos usually produce good February's around here but this one may be too much plus if we have 3 or 4 weeks of winter that's not really winter to me

Bingo:

If we have snow from mid February to the end of March I'll take it, but as you said that's not a winter to me.

Makes sense, thanks guys

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:53 pm

Grselig wrote:Has the TWC named tonights flurries. Zeus. Apollo. Poseidon. Atlas. This may be the only storm of the winter. Opportunity will be lost. With those winds Jim Cantore should be outside braving the devastating conditions.

by Guest Tue Jan 12, 2016 4:54 pm

Hell Nino is going to win out. You watch. Discuss all the telecommunications you want, back them up with graphs, whatever!! I know what I'm seeing. I've been watching closely 35 years and guys like Doc and CP even longer.

I blame CP. He's the one responsible for getting the zookeper fired from their weather duties so this is mother natures revenge. a sacrifice is in order.

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:07 pm

i think we will see no snow for jan last time that happen was in 2006 . i remember in 2006 the only snowstorm we had was in feb 16 2006 where we had 21 inches and we saw thunder snow

by **algae888** Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:22 pm

frank 638 wrote:i think we will see no snow for jan last time that happen was in 2006 . i remember in 2006 the only snowstorm we had was in feb 16 2006 where we had 21 inches and we saw thunder snow

Frank I think that's our only hope. to get a big storm or two and even if we end up with normal snow totals in the city it still will not feel like a regular winter this year. I highly doubt that we will nickel or dime our way to above average snowfall. we need a big one and that's certainly possible with El Nino. This year may end up like 82/83 but those type of Winters you can keep.

by **jmanley32** Tue Jan 12, 2016 5:38 pm

18z gfs bit colder but still north really bombs out go b nasty noreaster. But look at 126 hrs another bomb coastal that looks like might bring snow? I don't recall that being in previous runs.

by **algae888** Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:15 pm

jmanley32 wrote:18z gfs bit colder but still north really bombs out go b nasty noreaster. But look at 126 hrs another bomb coastal that looks like might bring snow? I don't recall that being in previous runs.

euro and other guidance do not have it so it will probably be gone at 00z tonight.

by **Radz** Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:22 pm

I'm starting to like my odds of winning Powerball over the odds of getting a MECS anytime soon lol, it is only January 12th- i for one will keep hoping these next few storms will produce!!

by **frank 638** Tue Jan 12, 2016 6:29 pm

i just hope for this winter we get 2 storms or more then i will be happy just the blizzard of 2006 of feb if anybody remembers that storm you will know what i mean .that storm was crazy there was a heavy snow band with winds up to 50 mph that sat over us with lighting and thunder that shook my house .will we see that again in feb i doubt it but i will take a good godzilla

by **Grselig** Tue Jan 12, 2016 7:33 pm

This is horrible. I see a small line coming from the west. So far not even a dusting. Not even a coating. Pathetic. But we do have a little icing. Winter has FAILED US!!! We need to fire January and February. Replace them with months that care about doing a good job and are hungry. Get some quality through the draft. These guys are lazy and bad for the team.

by **RJB8525** Tue Jan 12, 2016 8:56 pm

Grselig wrote:This is horrible. I see a small line coming from the west. So far not even a dusting. Not even a coating. Pathetic. But we do have a little icing. Winter has FAILED US!!! We need to fire January and February. Replace them with months that care about doing a good job and are hungry. Get some quality through the draft. These guys are lazy and bad for the team.

lol my family in Caldwell hasn't seen anything either so i've been rubbing it in their face Laughing

by **oldtimer** Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:42 am

Gee. The last storm I got 1.85" of rain. It's quite disappointing that this weekend of getting another 2". I feel like opportunity lost Anyway hope for all of us February will be a "whopper white". I'm holding on to Frank's thinking. If not this winter is a dirty trick

by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 7:58 am

Not 1 flake. Broke up as it hit the city. Pounded southern Ct. for 1 hour straight just to my north.

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:11 am

With all this rain, the lawns are going to look quite beautiful once it hits 80 in March.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:12 am

Quietace wrote:With all this rain, the lawns are going to look quite beautiful once it hits 80 in March.

by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:47 am

Please no one on here take this as a personal shot...I find it amusing that back in November as El Nino slowly peaked people on here were saying that it was going to cool. Then it did and people were excited. Now it's warming again and all of a sudden it's not really warming it's just some other scientific mumbo-jumbo causing it. El Nino is warming waters in the Pacific and that's happening now. To deny it or make up reasons why it's not really a "true" warming event for some other reason makes us out to sound like the Global Warmers, who only believe the warming events and blame the cooling on a freak event. We can't deny the facts. Hell Nino (thanks Doc) has been and will continue to screw winter for all us snow lovers.

Let's not wish-cast. We're all pissed off and becoming desperate. Just look at the strength, position and slow movement of this weekends storm and for it to be rain in mid-January with all this cold before and after is a kick in the teeth. It's perfect for an epic all time blizzard. It's that damn jet plowing into the west coast originating over the warm waters of the Pacific. That defines el-nino.

BY THE WAY. GOD I HOPE I'M WRONG AND WIND UP WITH EGG ON MY FACE. I KNOW IT'S ONLY WEATHER BUT I CAN'T SHAKE THESE BLUES AND NOW IT'S MORPHED INTO ANGER.... Plus a broken heater. AND the only bar I choose to go to and hang out at since 1997 is closing for good Friday. Full of blue collar cops, fireman, plumbers, golf course maintenance men etc; I'm going to miss the 2 dollar pints and priceless conversations of one of the last greatest places of old time AMERICANA on Long Island.

by **dkodgis** Wed Jan 13, 2016 8:52 am

A 103 year old weather man has left us:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/richard-hendrickson-worlds-oldest-weatherman-dies-at-103/

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:03 am

syosnow94 wrote:Please no one on here take this as a personal shot...I find it amusing that back in November as El Nino slowly peaked people on here were saying that it was going to cool. Then it did and people were excited. Now it's warming again and all of a sudden it's not really warming it's just some other scientific mumbo-jumbo causing it. El Nino is warming waters in the Pacific and that's happening now. To deny it or make up reasons why it's not really a "true" warming event for some other reason makes us out to sound like the Global Warmers, who only believe the warming events and blame the cooling on a freak event. We can't deny the facts. Hell Nino (thanks Doc) has been and will continue to screw winter for all us snow lovers.

Let's not wish-cast. We're all pissed off and becoming desperate. Just look at the strength, position and slow movement of this weekends storm and for it to be rain in mid-January with all this cold before and after is a kick in the teeth. It's perfect for an epic all time blizzard. It's that damn jet plowing into the west coast originating over the warm waters of the Pacific. That defines el-nino.

BY THE WAY. GOD I HOPE I'M WRONG AND WIND UP WITH EGG ON MY FACE. I KNOW IT'S ONLY WEATHER BUT I CAN'T SHAKE THESE BLUES AND NOW IT'S MORPHED INTO ANGER.... Plus a broken heater. AND the only bar I choose to go to and hang out at since 1997 is closing for good Friday. Full of blue collar cops, fireman, plumbers, golf course maintenance men etc; I'm going to miss the 2 dollar pints and priceless conversations of one of the last greatest places of old time AMERICANA on Long Island.

I feel ya, if itmakes you feel any better Al mentioned how fast this storm will actually move, in and out in less than 12 hrs. It would have to be one heck of a snowstorm to lay down a mecs+ in that period of time.

by **jmanley32** Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:04 am

dkodgis wrote:A 103 year old weather man has left us:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/richard-hendrickson-worlds-oldest-weatherman-dies-at-103/

"No cause of death was reported...." I do not mean to sound insensitive but might it be that he was 103? Just saying that's quite a feat in and of itself.

by **Grselig** Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:13 am

jmanley32 wrote:
dkodgis wrote:A 103 year old weather man has left us:

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/richard-hendrickson-worlds-oldest-weatherman-dies-at-103/

"No cause of death was reported...." I do not mean to sound insensitive but might it be that he was 103? Just saying that's quite a feat in and of itself.

He died of a broken heart over no snow this winter. Just could not take the disappointment. 103 is a nice age.

by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:21 am

I thought each step on the model run was 12 hours? It looks to affect us for 3 slides. 3 X 12 = 36. Unless I'm looking at the wrong run or have the wrong times.

by Guest Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:31 am

................by the way, Boston was forecast to get under 1" last night, but many areas in Ct. and Mass. including the Boston area received 2-3"..

by **Quietace** Wed Jan 13, 2016 9:31 am

syosnow94 wrote:I thought each step on the model run was 12 hours? It looks to affect us for 3 slides. 3 X 12 = 36. Unless I'm looking at the wrong run or have the wrong times.

Models can be ran in any increments they want(Ex HRRR 15 minutes- 30 minutes, or GFS 3 Hours to 12 Hours.)Yet what you are referring to is actually site dependent. Most sites either run the GFS in 6 or 12 hours increments, but it will state so on the stamps.

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