Long Range Thread 10.0

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Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 10:19 pm

Larry Cosgrove

Super active storm track along the eastern seaboard coupled with frequent Arctic intrusions for nearly all of February and the first half of March.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:14 pm



This is showing not a splitting but a total dislodging of the PV - where this set ups is going to be key for the month of Feb into March. My idea is just West of Hudson Bay and a tad North -= that would be ideal BUT fACT BEING IT IS BEING DISLODGED WHICH IS GREAT NEWS.

fROM OUR STRAT EXPERT ISOTHERM:
Displacement SSW looking more and more likely at this point. I think the coupling process will be fairly rapid with this event. The lower stratosphere is very perturbed as well, and should initiate the -AO next week.Right now, I like the direction the Euro's headed.

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:32 pm

0z GFS has the superbowl storm. It's a miller b like the euro but further north. NYC gets a few inches but SNE gets more. It really gets going in SNE. Long way to go. 500 looks great.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:38 pm

0z gfs runs for my storms

5th very close



7th into the 8th - so close - LI gets a good Miller B











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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:41 pm

WOW LOOK AT THE ENERGY DIGGING WAY SOUTH ON THE GFS AT 231 AND 234

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:43 pm

THIS LOOKS LIKE A BOMB IS READY TO GO OFF AFTER THIS HR 240 MADONNE

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Math23x7 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:46 pm

I just checked the 0Z GFS for the February 7th.  While the precipitation is over Eastern LI, surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to near 40...

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:46 pm

YOU HAVE A -EPO, BIG PNA, -AO AND 50/50 SET UP

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:47 pm

A BEAST WITH TREMENDOUS INTENSITY - BLIZZ WRITTEN ALL OVER THIS ONE








Last edited by amugs on Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:10 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sat Jan 30, 2016 11:50 pm

Very explosive pattern on the GFS
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:03 am

14-17th peeps




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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:08 am

Holy storminess and coldness setting up here as shown by the 0z gfs tonight - what until it picks up on the dynamics from our trop forcing and the GOA LP retrograding - showed signs with a huge pna spike and N epo and but still more work to be done in teh few days here.

Another Mugstradamus prediction - we are about to encounter one of the snowies feb/march couplets on record - I thing we eclipse last years couplet of snowfall for F/M

PS - All my storms are their in the call I made last night Mugs the Animal Steel coming through

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by TheAresian on Sun Jan 31, 2016 12:20 am

I know you can't put any faith in individual runs, but I'd love to see the 0z GFS play out just like that for the Feb 10-12.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 1:53 am

Euro has a coastal snowstorm for Feb 8.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 5:43 am

I know their are all storms showing up but does it become an issue with spacing?
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:31 am

Wow at EURO for next Sunday!




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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:32 am

GFS is too late with the phase. Northern New England is in the bullseye for this storm.

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 8:47 am

Plenty time to get it where we need it
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:06 am

Frank_Wx wrote:GFS is too late with the phase. Northern New England is in the bullseye for this storm.

A lot of solutions coming up
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:06 am

I wouldn't rule out the Friday storm just yet. GFS is really close.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:38 am

Math23x7 wrote:I just checked the 0Z GFS for the February 7th.  While the precipitation is over Eastern LI, surface temperatures are in the upper 30s to near 40...

Way too far out to worry about those types of details Mikey.

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:39 am

Snow88 wrote:I wouldn't rule out the Friday storm just yet. GFS is really close.
I wouldn't rule anything out 5 days out the pattern is going to shift into a volatile one.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by syosnow94 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 9:51 am

I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm. Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited. Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:05 am

syosnow94 wrote:I know it's only the long range op runs so don't kill me here but.................

All these solutions so far look like a repeat of last year where Boston gets absolutely destroyed every 3 or 4 days while we just miss out, and they also look a little warm.  Let me see the ensembles and I'll get excited.  Hopefully the NW trends as we get closer continue.
I don't know about warm the PV is going to elongated and the the cold air will be pumping into the NE.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Sun Jan 31, 2016 10:06 am

https://youtu.be/ntITkhITzvA
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

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