Long Range Thread 10.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:48 am

Nothing can be for certain until storm is 4-5 days out
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:48 am

Math23x7 wrote:Frank and Scott, what are your thoughts on the fact that according to this image from tropicaltidbits.com, Nino 1.2 has risen back up to +1.7?


With Nino 1.2 being the shallowest it also makes the SST flux the most volatile.  As you can see since the strat of Dec. we cont in a steady decline overall despite short term spikes and drops.  I expect within a week or so to see us right back to where we were on the 22nd +/-.  With the exception of Nino 4 region all other Nino regions cont to cool.  The fact that we are seeing a slight trend warmer in 4 further enhances the idea that a Modeki like Nino pattern should be developing, which typically favors a colder and stormy pattern in the eastern third of the country.  Of course "the sum of all parts" is still is at play.  So we shall see.   





_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:49 am

I think models will be all over the placevwhilr this pattern goes into transition. The cutter on weds will help set things up.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:51 am

Exactly Skins.  Energy that is the mid week storm only came onshore last night into this morning in the SW.  With models showing what they are showing I am going to reiterate this point I made in my write up yesterday.  Does it mean the out come is favorable??  No, but...............................

IT WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO GET THE DETAILS OF ANY OF ONE OF THESE TIME FRAMES BEFORE THE ONE BEFORE IS UPON US AND/OR BEYOND.  I CANNOT STRESS THIS POINT ENOUGH.  MY POINT WITH THIS IS THAT WE WILL SEE OPERATIONAL MODELS FLIP AND FLOP ALOT IN THE COMING DAYS.  THE ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOULD GIVE A BETTER IDEA OF WHAT WILL HAPPEN AS TIME MOVES ON. USE THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AND HIGH RES SHORT RANGE MODELS FOR THE SYSTEM IN FRONT OF US AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS FOR THE ONES BEYOND.  

No weenie jumping off the winter cancel bridge either.  Cautious optimism will be needed throughout this month.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 6:59 am


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:31 am

algae888 wrote:It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

Al I want to make sure I point out that this may be correct. I will point out; however, that Nino would not necessarily be the reason, but rather the MJO. That said if it turns out warm and snowless whether its Nino or the MJO as the cause of it will suck.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:40 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

Al I want to make sure I point out that this may be correct.  I will point out; however, that Nino would not necessarily be the reason, but rather the MJO.  That said if it turns out warm and snowless whether its Nino or the MJO as the cause of it will suck.    
Isn't the mjo muted meaning the favorable warm phases really aren't important during strong Nino years
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:49 am

sroc4 wrote:
Math23x7 wrote:Frank and Scott, what are your thoughts on the fact that according to this image from tropicaltidbits.com, Nino 1.2 has risen back up to +1.7?


With Nino 1.2 being the shallowest it also makes the SST flux the most volatile.  As you can see since the strat of Dec. we cont in a steady decline overall despite short term spikes and drops.  I expect within a week or so to see us right back to where we were on the 22nd +/-.  With the exception of Nino 4 region all other Nino regions cont to cool.  The fact that we are seeing a slight trend warmer in 4 further enhances the idea that a Modeki like Nino pattern should be developing, which typically favors a colder and stormy pattern in the eastern third of the country.  Of course "the sum of all parts" is still is at play.  So we shall see.   




I do not think any guidance still had is in a super el-nino on feb. 1st. most guidance and forecasters  expected this el-nino to be rapidily declining at this point. MAKE NO MISTAKE ABOUT IT WE ARE CURRENTLY STILL DEALING WITH A SUPER EL-NINO NOT a moderate one. this will have big implications on the forecast for feb and march.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 7:58 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

Al I want to make sure I point out that this may be correct.  I will point out; however, that Nino would not necessarily be the reason, but rather the MJO.  That said if it turns out warm and snowless whether its Nino or the MJO as the cause of it will suck.    
scott I am not as well versed as you on these subjects so basically my understanding is the MJO in those phases will cause a ridge to develop in the n/e (warm for us) and the el-nino is just flooding the northern hemisphere with warm pac air. the pac air has to go over the epo/pna ridge cools and then heads down towards us mixing with polar/ arctic air. I feel models are underestimating how warm this pac air is and so we get a muted or modified arctic air mass than say when we have a la nina
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:35 am

Still liking the Feb LR. As of now I think we could see a sustained period of cold and snow, potentially the coldest temps of the year in this period as well with many LP systems traversing the US from the north (clippers) and south (southern stream systems w/ phase potential and snow potential on their own with this airmass if we get a SWFE breakout (something I think we're due to see at least one of this year)). Not sure about the nearest event (the 5th) as I think it forms too late after the fropa and out to sea as of right now but there is still a chance and plenty of time for it to trend back west; many systems like this produced for this area over the past few years, we shall see.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 8:55 am

scott also this has shown up a lot in nws disco and reflected in high and low temps over performing...
"WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DESPITE
CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS."
the pna has been + most of dec and jan. we have had a n/w flow except before cutters you would think we would be colder on departures so far.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:18 am

algae888 wrote:
sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:It looks like we have to wait till post Feb. 20th or so to see any sustained cold or snow lmo. Mjo phase 4,5 and 6 will not cut it here. Cold snap on models now likely to be transient and muted. Just look at this coming weekend. arctic cold front comes through Thursday high temperatures Friday Saturday and Sunday 35 to 40 for New York City. There is no cold air around and we shouldn't expect any until MJO heads towards phase 7/8 which is likely post February 20th. Again it doesn't mean we can't get snow but we have to be extremely fortunate for it to happen just like what happened in January. El Nino is overpowering the polar jet once again no cold air to work with.

Al I want to make sure I point out that this may be correct.  I will point out; however, that Nino would not necessarily be the reason, but rather the MJO.  That said if it turns out warm and snowless whether its Nino or the MJO as the cause of it will suck.    
scott I am not as well versed as you on these subjects so basically my understanding is the MJO in those phases will cause a ridge to develop in the n/e (warm for us) and the el-nino is just flooding the northern hemisphere with warm pac air. the pac air has to go over the epo/pna  ridge cools and then heads down towards us mixing with polar/ arctic air.  I feel models are underestimating how warm this pac air is and so we get a muted or modified  arctic air mass than say when we have a la nina

Al IMO El Nino has driven shot gun and at times has grabbed ahold of the wheel to steer us, but it has been transient.  It has not been in control of where we were, and where we are going, although will def cont to be an influential part of the equation.  Big implications, like you indicated above, could mean huge snow storms just as much as it could mean warm Temp anomalies and cutters and/or a combo of both when you factor in all the other major pattern drivers.  

Typically an MJO pulse through phases 4-6 would promote toughing in the west.  This is classically the mechanism for the ridging in the east with regards to textbook MJO phases 4-6 in the winter months.   If you want to see it in person go back and look at the December 500mb anomalies.  With an unusualy cold tight strat vortex, the MJO was in complete control of the pattern and dominated all of December, NOT NINO.  That pattern was La Nina like instead.  Here was the MJO forecast valid Jan 5th via Euro.  Look at phases 4-6.  MJO pulse came out at the beginning of Dec and traversed east until Jan when it entered phase 7.  
" />

From there it traveled through the colder phases 7-2 before coming back into the COD.  Image below is the current EC MJO forecast.  This was why we started to see our cold shots during last month.  And with our Nino still as strong as it is why we didn't get as cold as could have been but it was el nino in part that allowed such a beast to come together on the 23rd thanks to our juiced up STJ  

" />  

But regardless of the fact that Nino is still strong, other drivers are set to come into play moving forward.  We had a very weak Strat warming that played a roll in helping dislodge the Alaskan vortex and push it S of the Aleutians for a good part of the Month of Jan.which led a refocus of convection into the cooler phases.  In turn our PNA ridge was better and allowed the AO and NAO to go neg etc....In the image below this is seen as by looking at the warmer colors pushing downward in the strat.  As you can see there is a second attack of warming on the strat the extent of which has already exceeded the one from Jan.  Now whether we are going to be able to classify this as a strue SSWEvent is a mute point IMO because it will    have an effect on the troposhphere in a positive way.  It is forecasted as a much stronger event compared to Jan.  Just how much is yet to be determined.  


So again when looking at the LR Ens guidance one thing I want everyone to key in on is the position of the Sub Aleutian trough.  In warm phases of the MJO this should not be positioned here.  The arctic air that makes it east in the text book MJO 4-6  pattern moderates as it moves east because it mixes with the air coming in from the SW flow via the SE ridge complex out ahead of the western trough.  If we get and sustain a true -EPO/+PNA/-AO ridge compliments of the sub Aleutian trough position we will get true arctic air masses that build and head south.  The source region becomes purely arctic.  The MJO will undoubtebly fight against the -EPO/+PNA esp in the next 7-10days, and esp since we are only starting our Strat warming attack, however, as times moves on and the -EPO/-AO/+PNA returns the latter 1/2 to 2/3rds of Feb into Early 1/3 of March should prove to be explosive.  If the OLR forecasts holds the -NAO will come about as well. We will have to see how the MJO forecast evolves moving forward in response to the Strat changes already in motion.  I have saved the image above and I plan on saving MJO forecast daily or every other day so we can see if its curent forecast lines holds true to what we see now, or it begins to shift towards a weaker signal, or if the other drivers simply override its influences despite propagating through the warm phases.  

This is truly why I love the winter months.  Win lose or draw this is what excites me.  We stand in the face of adversity, yet we hold strong confident in victory.  For as long as we put forth our best foot, we will always remain victorious!!

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:21 am

algae888 wrote:scott also this has shown up a lot in nws disco and reflected in high and low temps over performing...
"WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DESPITE
CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS."
the pna has been + most of dec and jan. we have had a n/w flow except before cutters you would think we would be colder on departures so far.

I explain why this is in my above discussion al. What we should have moving forward that we really didn't have in Jan is the -EPO. This has been the main reason for the cold we experience in the second half of last winter and winter before last. Again a strong Nino is still in place but it cont to weaken. Again the NE N or the Mason Dixon line is the battle ground. I don't expect huge temp departures whenall is said and done, but I do cont to except above normal snowfall

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 01, 2016 9:48 am

I love your analysis as always Sroc but I just can't buy that the Strong El Nino was not the deciding factor in our warmest and I mean by far warmest December ever.

Is it just coincidence that the strongest El Nino ever, also saw the warmest December ever? A December that was 14 degrees above normal and 7 degrees above the second warmest December ever. No month has ever broken an old monthly record by 7 degrees, it's just unheard of.

As a layman who has always associated El Nino with mild and low snowfall Winters this is what I see so far. December record warmth and January 2 degrees above normal, check, with very few snow events basically one so far, check, and sometimes one huge event like 83, check. In my unscientific weather related mind this still looks to me like a winter and especially December that has been dominated by Hell Nino (to steal docstox's term).

Just my thoughts with no science to back it just observation.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:20 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:I love your analysis as always Sroc but I just can't buy that the Strong El Nino was not the deciding factor in our warmest and I mean by far warmest December ever.

Is it just coincidence that the strongest El Nino ever, also saw the warmest December ever? A December that was 14 degrees above normal and 7 degrees above the second warmest December ever. No month has ever broken an old monthly record by 7 degrees, it's just unheard of.

As a layman who has always associated El Nino with mild and low snowfall Winters this is what I see so far. December record warmth and January 2 degrees above normal, check, with very few snow events basically one so far, check, and sometimes one huge event like 83, check. In my unscientific weather related mind this still looks to me like a winter and especially December that has been dominated by Hell Nino (to steal docstox's term).

Just my thoughts with no science to back it just observation.

Your points are valid CP; however, the MJO drove the car in Dec and the Nino reached over and pushed down on the gas pedal. Nino is what took our temp departures from warmer than normal to record warmer than normal.  But Nino was not driving the car in that situation.  IMHO. I dont not stand alone in that opinion either.  Very educated professionals agree with that.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:33 am

Scott all I'm saying with regards to El Nino is that if the waters are + 3 degrees Celsius above normal then the air temperatures over the Pacific have to be warmer. If that's our basis point and air moves from west to east or if there's blocking northeast to souteast it has to have an impact on how cold it can get here. Whether it's a driver or enhancer really doesn't matter what matters is that we are starting out with anomalously warm air temperatures. And I'm not saying less snow as we will be in a very active pattern but just how cold it can get remains to be seen
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:34 am

sroc4 wrote:
algae888 wrote:scott also this has shown up a lot in nws disco and reflected in high and low temps over performing...
"WENT A FEW DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES DESPITE
CLOUD COVER IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN RUNNING A FEW
DEGREES TOO COOL DURING THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS."
the pna has been + most of dec and jan. we have had a n/w flow except before cutters you would think we would be colder on departures so far.

I explain why this is in my above discussion al.  What we should have moving forward that we really didn't have in Jan is the -EPO.  This has been the main reason for the cold we experience in the second half of last winter and winter before last. Again a strong Nino is still in place but it cont to weaken.  Again the NE N or the Mason Dixon line is the battle ground.  I don't expect huge temp departures whenall is said and done, but I do cont to except above normal snowfall

SROC,

Excellent analysis and write ups and the set up is so dynamic with so many players on the field it can make things murky. Remember this too, when the PV dislodges it will allow the floodgates to open for cold air to pour down. The trop forcing is where it is at and all guidance showing this to be teh main player moving forward as Frank pointed out. Models are going to show massive changes run to run and this where I think the hang ups are. Just revert back to Jan 16-17th time frame when we had no storms on the OP's and cold was talked about being muted and or transient - then BOOOOOMMMM!! Lessons to be learned.

Mugs the "Animal Steel" - I eat turnbuckles for a snack!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:42 am

algae888 wrote:Scott all I'm saying with regards to El Nino is that if the waters are + 3 degrees Celsius above normal then the air temperatures over the Pacific have to be warmer. If that's our basis point and air moves from west to east or if there's blocking northeast to souteast it has to have an impact on how cold it can get here. Whether it's a driver or enhancer really doesn't matter what matters is that we are starting out with anomalously warm air temperatures. And I'm not saying less snow as we will be in a very active pattern but just how cold it can get remains to be seen

Al Im at work now so I cannot get into as much detail as I want right now, but I will. There is some truth to what you are saying but there are also some holes. Ill outline my thoughts later or tomorrow.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 01, 2016 10:51 am

algae888 wrote:Scott all I'm saying with regards to El Nino is that if the waters are + 3 degrees Celsius above normal then the air temperatures over the Pacific have to be warmer. If that's our basis point and air moves from west to east or if there's blocking northeast to souteast it has to have an impact on how cold it can get here. Whether it's a driver or enhancer really doesn't matter what matters is that we are starting out with anomalously warm air temperatures. And I'm not saying less snow as we will be in a very active pattern but just how cold it can get remains to be seen

Al true point on the SST of the PAC but if you get and it is foretasted by ENS guidance the N EPO and POS PNA - the N EPO is a block that will drive the warm PAC air up and over the top into the Arctic region which will also help drive cold air down. remember that we have the GOA LP that will retrograde allowing this to occur where in Dec we had this sitting on the WC of BC.







From Isotherm
Speaking to another point - with regards to the MJO - the CFS V2 indicates its progression toward the central tropical Pacific by mid February w/ maintenance the rest of the month. So those who are utilizing the MJO as an argument for a warming / worsening pattern mid month would be incorrect as per the CFS. This would be suggestive of improving forcing over the next couple of weeks.


The mjo will be muted by tropical forcing at the dateline from what I have researched.
TROP FORCING AGAIN here!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by skinsfan1177 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:39 am

amugs wrote:
algae888 wrote:Scott all I'm saying with regards to El Nino is that if the waters are + 3 degrees Celsius above normal then the air temperatures over the Pacific have to be warmer. If that's our basis point and air moves from west to east or if there's blocking northeast to souteast it has to have an impact on how cold it can get here. Whether it's a driver or enhancer really doesn't matter what matters is that we are starting out with anomalously warm air temperatures. And I'm not saying less snow as we will be in a very active pattern but just how cold it can get remains to be seen

Al true point on the SST of the PAC but if you get and it is foretasted by ENS guidance the N EPO and POS PNA - the N EPO is a block that will drive the warm PAC air up and over  the top into the Arctic region which will also help drive cold air down. remember that we have the GOA LP that will retrograde allowing this to occur where in Dec we had this sitting on the WC of BC.







From Isotherm
Speaking to another point - with regards to the MJO - the CFS V2 indicates its progression toward the central tropical Pacific by mid February w/ maintenance the rest of the month. So those who are utilizing the MJO as an argument for a warming / worsening pattern mid month would be incorrect as per the CFS. This would be suggestive of improving forcing over the next couple of weeks.


The mjo will be muted by tropical forcing at the dateline from what I have researched.
TROP FORCING AGAIN here!!!
Amugs great info here it's nuts so many are waiting to see what happens and so many have given up and thrown in the towel for February calling it a torch. I don't how that can be its just strarting and the pattern is going into a transition. Everyone hugging op model runs
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by rb924119 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 11:42 am

12z GFS Op says HELLO EVERYBODY:


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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:07 pm

rb924119 wrote:12z GFS Op says HELLO EVERYBODY:


2 runs in a row. Everything crossed.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:18 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
rb924119 wrote:12z GFS Op says HELLO EVERYBODY:


2 runs in a row. Everything crossed.
Canadian has it too! but my concern as I have been pointing out is will it be cold enough. evey model run gets warmer with the arctic outbreak as we get closer to this time frame.


Last edited by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:19 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:18 pm

@ Skins - I feel like I am teaching my students Chinese at times when I teach drafting!

BTW Trop Tidbits







AND NO TEMPS ISSUE DISCUSSION THIS FAR OUT FOR CHRIST SAKE IT IS A WEEK AWAY!!!

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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 01, 2016 12:23 pm

mugs this whole winter cold outbreaks get muted as we get closer in time. my concern is how cold do we get. euro and gfs had -20 to-30 850's for us with this arctic air around feb 10th. models are now showing -10 to 0 for same time. expect it to get warmer as we get closer. doesn't mean we can't snow just won't be as cold as advertised a few days ago.
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Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

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