Re: Long Range Thread 10.0

[Math23x7]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

If it is going to be this cold in March, I want the snow.  If we're not getting the snow, I would just like it to be warm, especially after March 13th as that's the day that Daylight Savings Time begins.  

PS: frank638, with all due respect, when you post a reply on a thread, it is probably best to post it in the main portion of the message and not in the title portion.  Just my opinion though.

Agreed.Sure hope it is not a cold, rainy spring.UGH!

I would take March 2012 (no snow and the 2nd warmest March on record for CPK) over March 2014 (cold with only 0.1" of snow, which came from a system that days earlier was forecasted to give NYC 6-12" of snow.)

[Guest]

Probably be a repeat of Valentine's Day. That's the way it's been this year.

[dkodgis]

Doc, that is what I said about a month ago. I think it will be a cold, rainy spring and a cool, wet summer. If not, there will be cries of woe about the water table what with little snow this season (at least above I-84).

[Snow88]

Arctic blast Madonne -10 to 15 departures next weekend through the Beg of March if this serves

GGEM cancels winter with no cold air in sight lol

[algae888]

not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...

[docstox12]

not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...

OK, that GFS would be the one that lets us in the HV catch up to you guys S and E.The way the trends have been for these snowstorms to go S and E for years, I'd say that GFS is a 50 to 1 shot.The kind of horse at the track you bet on that comes in three hours after the race starts.Nice to look at it, though, that map could be from the 50's and 60's.

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

This now brings my seasonal snowfall total, if all of the GFS fantasy storms this year reached their potential of 284 inches.

A good season in any fantasy world.

[Guest]

Not bad CP. so what you are saying is the long range GFS has a 5% accuracy rate predicting snowfall. ( you received 1/20th of what it predicted)

[jmanley32]

not one but two fantasy storms on 12z gfs to suck us back in...

That snowfall isn't even including the 2nd storm nor all of the 1st as the snow map only goes out to 240 hrs ha, reel us back in!

[amugs]

What a tease the GooFuS is and CP is 1 million percent corrct, for every guidance fantasy storm it showed this winter we'd be grading this winter an A!!

2-3 days out, blocking on euro is insane, stj pumping and two big coastals on SV and what will happen??

Anyone's guess. IF thee LR OP and even the ENS maps are for real then March will be fun, JB thinks so and then we flip to spring by mid month. We shall see....

[jmanley32]

Wxbell does however go out to 384 with snow map, ready for the fitrst storms totals.....

[jmanley32]

I guess this belongs in banter but I put it with what al had posted. I will post the ridiculous 384 hrs snow total in banter lol

[skinsfan1177]

I wouldn't put any stock into the LR we have seen this all winter. Hey I got a bridge to sell.

[docstox12]

Not bad CP. so what you are saying is the long range GFS has a 5% accuracy rate predicting snowfall.  ( you received 1/20th of what it predicted)

Jimmy, true up here in the HV with the forever S and E trend of these snowstorms.

[amugs]

JB touting the SOI crash and teh cooler much cooler waters in teh eastern pac from nino's collapse to shunt the OLR maps Frank pointed out and which should help trap the Trop Forcing over near the dateline area and not propagate west:

Because the water is much cooler in the eastern Pacific than central, it should stall the convective feedback area where it is and lead to this pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is



This is nice to see if we get it to come to fruition!

[Guest]

NWS has us for highs in the upper 40's and low 50's early next week. What a disconnect here

[weatherwatchermom]

NWS has us for highs in the upper 40's and low 50's early next week.  What a disconnect here

I just saw that same forecast for here too .. logged on and saw we had same question...what the heck .did things change??

[sroc4]

JB touting the SOI crash and teh cooler much cooler waters in teh eastern pac from nino's collapse to shunt the OLR maps Frank pointed out and which should help trap the Trop Forcing over near the dateline area and not propagate west:

Because the water is much cooler in the eastern Pacific than central, it should stall the convective feedback area where it is and lead to this pattern setting up a southern jet under blocking for much of the coming month. Any shortening of wavelengths could mean big storms like you see now. given the trough should be near the east coast the first 15 days of the month, it would be there that we have the best chance for phasing but expect plenty of cold and storms or at least rumors of them for much of the nation from the southern and central rockies into the east as I dont expect the wild warm shots out of the southern plains, relative to normal, to show up from now till at least mid March, As reluctant as winter may have been to come, you may find it that way to go. I have may reasons, and have tried to lay them out for you in systematic fashion, When I say 5-10 days before I expect to see a big SOI crash to initiate something, the crash occurs, I am going to be awful stubborn backing off what I think the large scale result of that crash is



This is nice to see if we get it to come to fruition!

JB is often spot on when it comes to his "cattle prod to the atmosphere" when the SOI crashes occur. Here is the latest daily values. The crash continues. FWIW he called for an additional 10-20" of snow in NYC before the season is up. We shall see.

[Guest]

I hope he's right! 10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture. As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

[sroc4]

I hope he's right!  10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture.  As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

If we get it it will likely not be during any sustained cold.  It will be in and out..most likely.  After the cold shot later this week by early next week models have the western ridge collapse with a ridge undercutting the PV in Canada and leading to above normal temps again. GFS

Cold shot/Friday



By Sat


Sunday into Monday:


Euro is very similar

[Snow88]

I hope he's right!  10-20" more would be insanely good at this juncture.  As I posted up above, NWS has me for upper 40's to low 50's early next week.

If we get it it will likely not be during any sustained cold.  It will be in and out..most likely.  After the cold shot later this week by early next week models have the western ridge collapse with a ridge undercutting the PV in Canada and leading to above normal temps again. GFS

Cold shot/Friday



By Sat


Sunday into Monday:


Euro is very similar

Not looking good for any sustained period of winter weather

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

So no 40 inch snow storm in Orange County next week as per yesterdays GFS?

Well knock me over with a feather.

[Guest]

GFS has a GLC on March 1st. Then 2 gigantic sub 990 bombs right on the BM. One on the 3rd and the other on the 9th. Canadian and Euro both have the first cutter than not so much after.

[amugs]

Ride the wave of teleconnections - for the 1st week of March

EPS AO


NAO


EPO


PNA


Looks like a cold shot possible warm up then a decently sustained period from the 3rdish until 10thish if the teles prove right. This would line up with the trop forcing and the MJO phase going into 8 this weekend

[RJB8525]

So no 40 inch snow storm in Orange County next week as per yesterdays GFS?

Well knock me over with a feather.

[Math23x7]

Frank, about a week ago, you seemed pretty confident that NYC would get the 8.8" it needs to hit 40" on the seasonal snow total. Do you still have that level of confidence going into March?

[Guest]

GFS has a GLC on March 1st.  Then 2 gigantic sub 990 bombs right on the BM.  One on the 3rd and the other on the 9th.  Canadian and Euro both have the first cutter than not so much after.  

00Z GFS now shows the cutter on March 1st. The 2nd storm threat which was on the BM on March 3rd now is a cutter tracking over Detroit. (a 600 mile move west from one run to the next) and the storm threat for 3/9 trended west and disorganized. I know this far out it means almost nothing but it is actually comical!!

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