February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
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February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
This thread will solely focus on Monday's possible snowfall. I will start another thread for Tuesday's inverted trough. This is a very tough forecast and one that has high volatility. Meaning, I would not be surprised at all if I BUST with this call. There are only 2 models out of dozens supporting my 1st call snow map for Monday. However, given the set-up and jet dynamics I can see why these two models may be onto something. And let's not forget the NAM and SREFS also did very well with Jonas, another complex setup.
If there is one thing models do agree on it is the size and strength of this beast. We're looking at a sub 980mb low located well south and east of the 40/70 BM. In any normal circumstances the location of this mega-storm would bring minimal impacts to the coast because it's well off the coast. But this is not normal. Heck, it's not a normal winter!
One of the reasons why this is not "any ol' storm" is because of these 250mb northern and southern jet streaks. The northern jet is exiting the picture as the 500mb low sits off the coast while the southern jet is getting ready to come up the coast. When winds are moving this quickly in the upper levels it usually creates instability and frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. As long as there is sufficient PVA (positive vorticity advection) these dynamics will have energy to work with to promote snowfall across the area.
Between Monday's large coastal storm and Tuesday's inverted trough, both nicely shown in the above frame, our area is stuck between two areas of upper level PVA. What the NAM, SREFS, and RPM models are doing is they think Monday's coastal storm will track close enough to the coast to get partially captured by Tuesday's inverted trough. Given the jet dynamics this allows the precipitation field to expand west and bring light to moderate snow to much of the area.
Here is a visual look of what I just explained. The NAM expands the precipitation field into the coast even though the coastal low is NOWHERE NEAR the BM. The BM is the red "X" and the modeled position of the surface low is the black "X." Look at what is moving into the Ohio Valley - the Inverted Trough!
As a result, the Monday system is partially captured and the PVA from both systems streams up the coast to promote prolonged snowfall over the area. The CCB is expansive and stretches from NYC to Maine.
Here is what I am thinking:
1. Monday's system will track close enough to the coast and partially phase with Tuesday's Inverted Trough.
2. Snow will break out over the coast first early Monday morning and slowly push inland as the CCB develops.
3. A high ratio light to moderate snow will fall through early to mid afternoon Monday.
4. Since the IVT is diving south I think DC to Philly Metro have the best shot of seeing snow from Tuesday's inverted trough, but I will speak about this system separately in another thread.
5. This has HIGH BUST potential as it's a very tricky set-up, but I rather prepare everyone on the board for snow than no snow. Just like Friday's storm when TV Mets were thinking only a C-1" myself and others warned a 3-6" snowfall is coming (almost 12" on LI!!!).
HUGE 00z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT! We'll see if any global models begin latching onto what the NAM/SREFS/RGEM are seeing!!!!
Best,
Frank
If there is one thing models do agree on it is the size and strength of this beast. We're looking at a sub 980mb low located well south and east of the 40/70 BM. In any normal circumstances the location of this mega-storm would bring minimal impacts to the coast because it's well off the coast. But this is not normal. Heck, it's not a normal winter!
One of the reasons why this is not "any ol' storm" is because of these 250mb northern and southern jet streaks. The northern jet is exiting the picture as the 500mb low sits off the coast while the southern jet is getting ready to come up the coast. When winds are moving this quickly in the upper levels it usually creates instability and frontogenesis (lift) in the atmosphere. As long as there is sufficient PVA (positive vorticity advection) these dynamics will have energy to work with to promote snowfall across the area.
Between Monday's large coastal storm and Tuesday's inverted trough, both nicely shown in the above frame, our area is stuck between two areas of upper level PVA. What the NAM, SREFS, and RPM models are doing is they think Monday's coastal storm will track close enough to the coast to get partially captured by Tuesday's inverted trough. Given the jet dynamics this allows the precipitation field to expand west and bring light to moderate snow to much of the area.
Here is a visual look of what I just explained. The NAM expands the precipitation field into the coast even though the coastal low is NOWHERE NEAR the BM. The BM is the red "X" and the modeled position of the surface low is the black "X." Look at what is moving into the Ohio Valley - the Inverted Trough!
As a result, the Monday system is partially captured and the PVA from both systems streams up the coast to promote prolonged snowfall over the area. The CCB is expansive and stretches from NYC to Maine.
Here is what I am thinking:
1. Monday's system will track close enough to the coast and partially phase with Tuesday's Inverted Trough.
2. Snow will break out over the coast first early Monday morning and slowly push inland as the CCB develops.
3. A high ratio light to moderate snow will fall through early to mid afternoon Monday.
4. Since the IVT is diving south I think DC to Philly Metro have the best shot of seeing snow from Tuesday's inverted trough, but I will speak about this system separately in another thread.
5. This has HIGH BUST potential as it's a very tricky set-up, but I rather prepare everyone on the board for snow than no snow. Just like Friday's storm when TV Mets were thinking only a C-1" myself and others warned a 3-6" snowfall is coming (almost 12" on LI!!!).
HUGE 00z MODEL RUNS TONIGHT! We'll see if any global models begin latching onto what the NAM/SREFS/RGEM are seeing!!!!
Best,
Frank
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Who loves the French? The French model is in agreement with the mesoscale models!
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:Who loves the French? The French model is in agreement with the mesoscale models!
Oh Merci!
Amazing write up I'm learning an amazing amount of information on models and tracking
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Thanks Frank Could this monster still move west??
oldtimer- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
For comparison purposes...
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
oldtimer wrote:Thanks Frank Could this monster still move west??
Well, one thing that I am looking into even though no models show this yet is the possibility of a secondary low forming right off the coast. As the monster storm moves up the eastern seaboard off the Carolina's and tracks northeast, there may be enough instability / convection close enough to the coast to allow a secondary low to form. If a secondary forms and track toward the BM that could bring additional snow to the area. As of now, this has no support and the "beast" is most likely to track east of the BM.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today?
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Thanks frank I still think that this Mon storm will come more west
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today?
Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers
No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today?
Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers
No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.
nice!!
Guest- Guest
Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
18z RGEM IR Satellite. YES
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:18z RGEM IR Satellite. YES
I'll take it!!!
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Very nice writeup Frank!
I was going to make a first call snow map, but I'm not so sure if I should now because I almost fully agree with yours.
I was going to make a first call snow map, but I'm not so sure if I should now because I almost fully agree with yours.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today?
Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers
No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.
Such a great meal, yet tomorrow you won't remember what you had????
Yesterday I had penne alla vodka, broccoli, and a garlic knot. Today I had some leftovers of that.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Math23x7 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:syosnow94 wrote:Thanks Frank. What did nonna cook for you today?
Stuffed artichokes, broccoli rabe, sausage and peppers
No pasta. I am trying to watch myself.
Such a great meal, yet tomorrow you won't remember what you had????
Yesterday I had penne alla vodka, broccoli, and a garlic knot. Today I had some leftovers of that.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
SREFS ARE GOING TO BE HUGE - ONCE AGAIN THE MEOSCALE MODELS WILL LEAD THE WAY WITH THESE - THE GLOBALS WILL FRICKIN LIMP TO THEIR SOLUTIONS.
BEEN AWAY ALL DAY AND WOW THIS IS COMPLEX
BEEN AWAY ALL DAY AND WOW THIS IS COMPLEX
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
RGEM HI RES
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Mugs
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WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
THE SREFS ARE WEST!!!!! ALERT ALERT THE LATEST SREFS ARE WEST BY ABOUT 10-15 MILES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
15Z
21Z
15Z
21Z
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
I think their might of been a more pronounced SLP shift. Just by the way the offshore precip axis adjusted. Or the shield it self expanded.But i haven't looked.
Quietace- Meteorologist - Mod
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Quietace wrote:I think their might of been a more pronounced SLP shift. Just by the way the offshore precip axis adjusted. Or the shield it self expanded.But i haven't looked.
The Mean SLP did nudge east, but the trough over the midwest is more negatively tilted so the precip field is more expansive due to the better capture
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Srefs leading the way!!!!
SREFSSSSSSSSSS
SREFSSSSSSSSSS
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Yes yes yes. What model is next?
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
skinsfan1177 wrote:Yes yes yes. What model is next?
NAM in a few.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Off topic, but Mike Trout just followed me. He's a huge weather weenie.
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Re: February 8, 2016 Snowfall Observations & Discussions
Cool, and a Jersey boy
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