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FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:52 am

I am starting a thread for this because I think its still trending and personally would like to cont the discussion as long as it is.



I know many have lost interest in tracking this system because it has trended unfavorable for most, but now that I have had a chance to look at the 00z runs from last night it is truly mind boggling to me.  First off I have to say the amount of inconsistency at both 500mb, and naturally at the surface, on the GFS and the Euro operational models with this system STILL run after run after run has been spell binding.  It tells me that they are still out to lunch; esp the GFS.  The GFS 06z this morning takes the LP on a track through eastern Indiana up through Michigan?????????.  I am fairly confident that that wont happen so throw it out.  

Now normally when I see an operational model all over the place I look to its ensemble forecast to see if it has support.  Remember the ensemble forecast is many runs averaged out.  And low and behold both the GFS ensemble and the Euro ensemble means are way east of their operational forecasts.  

00z GFS OP VS 00z GFS ENSEMBLE:

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gfs_0010
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gefs_010

00z EURO OP VS 00z EURO ENSEMBLE:

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Euro_010
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Eps_0010

Now to be fair the Ukie which has been one of the better winter models this season has been consistent in its track through western NY/W PA which is west of the aforementioned ensembles but has shown a shift east with successive runs.  I don't have 500mb for the Ukie, but both the Euro and GFS close off the system at 500mb early and the western track ensues from there.  
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Ukie10


On the other hand the Canadian still has a track over Eastern LI:
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Cm_00z10


Now one thing is becoming clear.  There will most likely be an initial weaker wave that moves through the area on Tuesday; followed by the main event Wed-Thurs.  If true this could be a game changer.  So how do you make sense of it all.  I mean you have operation models changing their storm track by hundreds of miles from run to run because the energy depiction at 500mb changes from run to run.  Here is my take.  


On Thursday afternoon this was my cone of uncertainty for the track put out before the shift west on the ensemble forecasts that ensued over night Thursday into Friday.  
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Cone_o10

I am shifting my new cone of uncertainty west, but not by that much, about 100-125miles.
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Cone_o11

My track is based on a blend of the Ensemble mean and the CMC.  As of now I am leaning to the left side of the storm track but this track is anything but a lock.  There are a few other things to note.  First, with so much uncertainty of the track who gets what and when and how and why, and how much simply cannot be answered.  One thing I will say is if the weak wave followed by the main event unfolds like I think then watch the temp profiles trend colder and colder as we get inside 24-48hrs out.  Look at the CMC and Euro surface map to get an idea why.    

When the models lost the two wave idea there was nothing but a  S/SE wind flow into the main system as it came up the coast:
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Ecmwf_10


In the next images pay little attention to the exact position of the LP but pay more attn. to the HP to the N.  Slowly but surely with the trend towards this weak wave first followed by the stronger system second the HP that was modeled to be centered in the Canadian maritimesee above) is now trending stronger back west over NE.  Instead we have the first wave move underneath the HP and now we have a stronger likely hood that a N/NE flow is still hanging on as second wave approaches if this hold true.  
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Cmc_su10
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Euro_s10

This trend tells me that if it were to cont as we approach zero hr for     the second wave the temp profiles will trend colder as well.  Nothing more than this general statement about temps can be made as we are way to far out.  I could be way off in this assessment, but its what I am seeing this morning.  The MJO forecast still supports the idea of a colder soln in my opinion, as does the ridge axis placement and strength in the western CONUS.  Make no mistake I am not calling for a BM track, and in all likely hood the vast majority of us, esp the coastal plain changes over to rain, but this storm is not done yet trending for better or worse.

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Post by rb924119 Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:55 am

Not that this is going to mean anything, but when I look at the 12z GFS 500 hPa, it just doesn't look right AT ALL to me. For example, how do we go from this (something that looks ok to me):

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) GFS_12_opUS_H50V_0084

To this (uh, what in the blue hell is going on??):

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) GFS_12_opUS_H50V_0102

To this (which, by the way, is impossible to have two separate closed H5 lows):

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) GFS_12_opUS_H50V_0108

The first image looks completely fine to me; no issues. The second one, though, definitely signals to me that the GFS is having big-time issues trying to resolve all of these shortwaves that will be involved here. When have we ever seen three distinct shortwaves, with three clearly different axis tilts, within a circle with r=350 miles that haven't ended up being consolidated almost immediately?? I can't remember a time, that's for sure. This is further supported by the third image, where the GFS is depicting two distinct closed H5 lows; one near the ND/MN border and the other over Lake Michigan. This is impossible; period. I'm not saying that the GFS track can't/won't verify. All I'm saying is that I am personally disregarding it until it shows me that it is getting a better grasp of these energies, because right now, it looks rather confused to me.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:56 am

You all have done great analysis around this storm. I honestly don't have the energy to do a lot of digging, but from what I can see this will largely be rain for the coast. Even the eastern most solutions still give rain to the area due to the lack of cold air around.

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:09 pm

CMC again eastern most soln. More confluence that the GFS so prevents the closed low from lifting north like the GFS. I still think it trends colder

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_z500_vort_us_15
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_z500_vort_us_22
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by Guest Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:13 pm

I know not to get too excited, but I'm snowfall central on the 12z CMC.

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_asnow_neus_22

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Post by sroc4 Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:19 pm

I know this image is a bit of a hodge podge, but if the N s/w and energy (circled in blue) would let go of, or better stated if the area circled in black were to consolidate with the energy in the blue circle this might allow the energy in the N stream phase with the southern system. It looks like its so close to doing so on this run. This is just analysis on this model, not what I think will happen.

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Cmc_z510

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:42 am

TheAresian wrote:I know not to get too excited, but I'm snowfall central on the 12z CMC.

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_asnow_neus_22

Good for you! Hope it works out.Models seem to be all over the place with this.
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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:48 am

The euro and gfs are locked in with a storm track through OH Valley / W PA. 1-2 inches of rain beginning late Tuesday through 1st half of Thursday. A boring and low impact storm.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:05 am

To provide more insight to why this storm will cut west, take a look at this image of the 06z GEFS with my notes on it.

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) February_21_2016_85857_AM_EST
I mentioned this the other day but it's worth repeating. The upper energy associated with developing the main storm is so strong that it closes off before it even reaches the Mississippi. When upper energy closes off early, it allows geopotential heights ahead of it to amplify which boots the NW flow out and the SW flow takes over. Mild air streams into the area as the storm takes a track toward west PA. 

One may thinK the blocking over Greenland could help prevent this storm from cutting except that is NOT a -NAO. It's a transient ridge brought about by the PV over the Hudson. The flow overall remains progressive.

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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:42 am

both the 12k and 4k nam gives us snow with the first wave on Tuesday aft and evening...
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Nam4km_asnow_neus_21
4k
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Namconus_asnow_neus_24
12k
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:45 am

the rgem if it went out further looks like it would concur with nam...
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Rgem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_16
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:56 am

12z gfs is north with the 1st wave precip shield. warmer than nam and rgem but still gives us a little snow on the front end...
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:57 am

FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gfs_asnow_neus_13
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:45 am

you can add in the cmc WOW!!!! for the first wave
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_10
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_11
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Gem_asnow_neus_12
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Post by CPcantmeasuresnow Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:58 am

Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:01 pm

well lets keep rolling ukie joins the party...first wave
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) P1_GZ_D5_PN_060_0000
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:04 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.
cp its all going to be washed away by thurs. but models now showing nice front end thumping. btw ukie temps look marginal. do not have snow map for it but it Is slightly warmer than nam and cmc but that's a lot of precip more than any other model
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Post by docstox12 Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:57 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.

lol! lol! lol!

Jackie Gleason on his Saturday night show in the 60's had a character called "The Poor Soul" and brother, that remiinds me of you with this back and forth snow tease on the models.
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Post by algae888 Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:26 pm

i'm hearing euro is not much of anything with first wave. it's pretty much on it's own as of now. all other guidance has up to and even greater than .5qpf with this wave. let's see how short range models handle this later today and tomorrow.
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:05 am

NAM still shows 1-3 inches for some spots. GFS has a dusting for spots. GGEM has nothing. 1st wave is starting to disappear.
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Post by Frank_Wx Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:31 am

The 1st wave will not amount to much. Maybe those north of the city can squeak out an inch or 2. I will close this thread tomorrow afternoon. No sense in tracking rain.

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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:11 am

all of the short range models showing more than an 1" or 2" for first wave...
12k nam
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Namconus_asnow_neus_17
4k nam
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Nam4km_asnow_neus_20
rgem
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Rgem_asnow_neus_16
00z 4k nam
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Nam4km_asnow_neus_19
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Post by Snow88 Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:24 am

GFS also shows a light snowfall
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Post by algae888 Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:33 am

the nam continues to show a significant snowfall with the first system...
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Namconus_asnow_neus_14
FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2) Nam4km_asnow_neus_13
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:52 am

Thinking nasty snow to rain scenario possible for northern parts of the region, possibly with a significant period of ZR further to the N and W. Temps will likely warm rapidly and get a strong cold front passage with sustained periods of high winds likely due to bombing out and slowing low to our north. NAM winds fairly impressive (for a sustained duration).
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