FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

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FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by sroc4 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:52 am

I am starting a thread for this because I think its still trending and personally would like to cont the discussion as long as it is.



I know many have lost interest in tracking this system because it has trended unfavorable for most, but now that I have had a chance to look at the 00z runs from last night it is truly mind boggling to me.  First off I have to say the amount of inconsistency at both 500mb, and naturally at the surface, on the GFS and the Euro operational models with this system STILL run after run after run has been spell binding.  It tells me that they are still out to lunch; esp the GFS.  The GFS 06z this morning takes the LP on a track through eastern Indiana up through Michigan?????????.  I am fairly confident that that wont happen so throw it out.  

Now normally when I see an operational model all over the place I look to its ensemble forecast to see if it has support.  Remember the ensemble forecast is many runs averaged out.  And low and behold both the GFS ensemble and the Euro ensemble means are way east of their operational forecasts.  

00z GFS OP VS 00z GFS ENSEMBLE:




00z EURO OP VS 00z EURO ENSEMBLE:




Now to be fair the Ukie which has been one of the better winter models this season has been consistent in its track through western NY/W PA which is west of the aforementioned ensembles but has shown a shift east with successive runs.  I don't have 500mb for the Ukie, but both the Euro and GFS close off the system at 500mb early and the western track ensues from there.  



On the other hand the Canadian still has a track over Eastern LI:



Now one thing is becoming clear.  There will most likely be an initial weaker wave that moves through the area on Tuesday; followed by the main event Wed-Thurs.  If true this could be a game changer.  So how do you make sense of it all.  I mean you have operation models changing their storm track by hundreds of miles from run to run because the energy depiction at 500mb changes from run to run.  Here is my take.  


On Thursday afternoon this was my cone of uncertainty for the track put out before the shift west on the ensemble forecasts that ensued over night Thursday into Friday.  


I am shifting my new cone of uncertainty west, but not by that much, about 100-125miles.


My track is based on a blend of the Ensemble mean and the CMC.  As of now I am leaning to the left side of the storm track but this track is anything but a lock.  There are a few other things to note.  First, with so much uncertainty of the track who gets what and when and how and why, and how much simply cannot be answered.  One thing I will say is if the weak wave followed by the main event unfolds like I think then watch the temp profiles trend colder and colder as we get inside 24-48hrs out.  Look at the CMC and Euro surface map to get an idea why.    

When the models lost the two wave idea there was nothing but a  S/SE wind flow into the main system as it came up the coast:



In the next images pay little attention to the exact position of the LP but pay more attn. to the HP to the N.  Slowly but surely with the trend towards this weak wave first followed by the stronger system second the HP that was modeled to be centered in the Canadian maritimesee above) is now trending stronger back west over NE.  Instead we have the first wave move underneath the HP and now we have a stronger likely hood that a N/NE flow is still hanging on as second wave approaches if this hold true.  



This trend tells me that if it were to cont as we approach zero hr for     the second wave the temp profiles will trend colder as well.  Nothing more than this general statement about temps can be made as we are way to far out.  I could be way off in this assessment, but its what I am seeing this morning.  The MJO forecast still supports the idea of a colder soln in my opinion, as does the ridge axis placement and strength in the western CONUS.  Make no mistake I am not calling for a BM track, and in all likely hood the vast majority of us, esp the coastal plain changes over to rain, but this storm is not done yet trending for better or worse.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by rb924119 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:55 am

Not that this is going to mean anything, but when I look at the 12z GFS 500 hPa, it just doesn't look right AT ALL to me. For example, how do we go from this (something that looks ok to me):



To this (uh, what in the blue hell is going on??):



To this (which, by the way, is impossible to have two separate closed H5 lows):



The first image looks completely fine to me; no issues. The second one, though, definitely signals to me that the GFS is having big-time issues trying to resolve all of these shortwaves that will be involved here. When have we ever seen three distinct shortwaves, with three clearly different axis tilts, within a circle with r=350 miles that haven't ended up being consolidated almost immediately?? I can't remember a time, that's for sure. This is further supported by the third image, where the GFS is depicting two distinct closed H5 lows; one near the ND/MN border and the other over Lake Michigan. This is impossible; period. I'm not saying that the GFS track can't/won't verify. All I'm saying is that I am personally disregarding it until it shows me that it is getting a better grasp of these energies, because right now, it looks rather confused to me.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 20, 2016 11:56 am

You all have done great analysis around this storm. I honestly don't have the energy to do a lot of digging, but from what I can see this will largely be rain for the coast. Even the eastern most solutions still give rain to the area due to the lack of cold air around.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by sroc4 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:09 pm

CMC again eastern most soln. More confluence that the GFS so prevents the closed low from lifting north like the GFS. I still think it trends colder




_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by TheAresian on Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:13 pm

I know not to get too excited, but I'm snowfall central on the 12z CMC.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by sroc4 on Sat Feb 20, 2016 12:19 pm

I know this image is a bit of a hodge podge, but if the N s/w and energy (circled in blue) would let go of, or better stated if the area circled in black were to consolidate with the energy in the blue circle this might allow the energy in the N stream phase with the southern system. It looks like its so close to doing so on this run. This is just analysis on this model, not what I think will happen.


_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by docstox12 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 7:42 am

TheAresian wrote:I know not to get too excited, but I'm snowfall central on the 12z CMC.


Good for you! Hope it works out.Models seem to be all over the place with this.
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 21, 2016 8:48 am

The euro and gfs are locked in with a storm track through OH Valley / W PA. 1-2 inches of rain beginning late Tuesday through 1st half of Thursday. A boring and low impact storm.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 21, 2016 9:05 am

To provide more insight to why this storm will cut west, take a look at this image of the 06z GEFS with my notes on it.


I mentioned this the other day but it's worth repeating. The upper energy associated with developing the main storm is so strong that it closes off before it even reaches the Mississippi. When upper energy closes off early, it allows geopotential heights ahead of it to amplify which boots the NW flow out and the SW flow takes over. Mild air streams into the area as the storm takes a track toward west PA. 

One may thinK the blocking over Greenland could help prevent this storm from cutting except that is NOT a -NAO. It's a transient ridge brought about by the PV over the Hudson. The flow overall remains progressive.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:42 am

both the 12k and 4k nam gives us snow with the first wave on Tuesday aft and evening...

4k

12k
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:45 am

the rgem if it went out further looks like it would concur with nam...
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:56 am

12z gfs is north with the 1st wave precip shield. warmer than nam and rgem but still gives us a little snow on the front end...

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 10:57 am

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:45 am

you can add in the cmc WOW!!!! for the first wave


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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Feb 21, 2016 11:58 am

Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:01 pm

well lets keep rolling ukie joins the party...first wave


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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:04 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.
cp its all going to be washed away by thurs. but models now showing nice front end thumping. btw ukie temps look marginal. do not have snow map for it but it Is slightly warmer than nam and cmc but that's a lot of precip more than any other model
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by docstox12 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 12:57 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Please stop reeling in me Al, I threw in the towel yesterday.

lol! lol! lol!

Jackie Gleason on his Saturday night show in the 60's had a character called "The Poor Soul" and brother, that remiinds me of you with this back and forth snow tease on the models.
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Sun Feb 21, 2016 1:26 pm

i'm hearing euro is not much of anything with first wave. it's pretty much on it's own as of now. all other guidance has up to and even greater than .5qpf with this wave. let's see how short range models handle this later today and tomorrow.
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Snow88 on Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:05 am

NAM still shows 1-3 inches for some spots. GFS has a dusting for spots. GGEM has nothing. 1st wave is starting to disappear.
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Frank_Wx on Mon Feb 22, 2016 12:31 am

The 1st wave will not amount to much. Maybe those north of the city can squeak out an inch or 2. I will close this thread tomorrow afternoon. No sense in tracking rain.

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 22, 2016 5:11 am

all of the short range models showing more than an 1" or 2" for first wave...
12k nam

4k nam

rgem

00z 4k nam
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by Snow88 on Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:24 am

GFS also shows a light snowfall
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 22, 2016 9:33 am

the nam continues to show a significant snowfall with the first system...

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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Feb 22, 2016 11:52 am

Thinking nasty snow to rain scenario possible for northern parts of the region, possibly with a significant period of ZR further to the N and W. Temps will likely warm rapidly and get a strong cold front passage with sustained periods of high winds likely due to bombing out and slowing low to our north. NAM winds fairly impressive (for a sustained duration).
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Re: FEB 23rd-25th system (Wave 1 and 2)

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