February 22nd Snow Possible
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algae888
jmanley32
amugs
RJB8525
CPcantmeasuresnow
docstox12
Math23x7
gigs68
sroc4
SNOW MAN
frank 638
Frank_Wx
16 posters
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February 22nd Snow Possible
Good Morning,
I really want to thank everyone for the well wishes. Lots of emails from members checking up on me. I'll be back home later today. I feel better but still a long way to go until I get my strength back. Anyway I don't want to focus on me. There is a weak wave that may try to develop into a coastal storm on Monday. Both rain and snow is possible. The NAM and GGEM are most bullish with this so far.
A look at 500mb vorticity valid 7am Monday you'll see there is a potent piece of upper energy stretched across the southern northeast. The ridge out west is very muted and the flow looks progressive over the eastern US. This upper energy may try to develop a weak surface low off the coast of NJ.
Here is this mornings 06z NAM
Again, very weak and surface looks kinda warm. And it's snowing during the day. Probably a 3-6" type of deal.
Here are the SREFS
The hi resolution models are doing a good job of showing this wave. At this point, I would expect a combination of snow and maybe even rain on Monday with minor accumulations. The ceiling on this is likely a moderate snowstorn, especially those N&W of NYC.
We'll see!
I really want to thank everyone for the well wishes. Lots of emails from members checking up on me. I'll be back home later today. I feel better but still a long way to go until I get my strength back. Anyway I don't want to focus on me. There is a weak wave that may try to develop into a coastal storm on Monday. Both rain and snow is possible. The NAM and GGEM are most bullish with this so far.
A look at 500mb vorticity valid 7am Monday you'll see there is a potent piece of upper energy stretched across the southern northeast. The ridge out west is very muted and the flow looks progressive over the eastern US. This upper energy may try to develop a weak surface low off the coast of NJ.
Here is this mornings 06z NAM
Again, very weak and surface looks kinda warm. And it's snowing during the day. Probably a 3-6" type of deal.
Here are the SREFS
The hi resolution models are doing a good job of showing this wave. At this point, I would expect a combination of snow and maybe even rain on Monday with minor accumulations. The ceiling on this is likely a moderate snowstorn, especially those N&W of NYC.
We'll see!
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
frank I hope you feel much better are you home
frank 638- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Frank, glad to hear your feeling a little better. I have one question. When will the snow/rain start Sunday night or Monday morning ? Just thinking about what my commute will be like going to work. Thanks.
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
First lets quickly address the weaker Monday threat. Here was the set up from 4days ago:
"By day 6 the LP should move up and out to the NE and the cold frontal boundary should set up somewhere off the east coast. As you can see by the little black circles weak little waves may form along it but you can see a bigger LP gathering over SE Tx and a northern system set to dive into the plains. Im not sure if any of the weak waves along the frontal boundary end up amounting to anything just yet, but the possibility exists.
And here we are today: As you can see a weak wave of LP looks to pass off the coast somewhere south of LI as it rides along the aforementioned frontal boundary Monday. Models still differ on its exact track and intensity. Depending on exactly where and just how strong it is we may see snow showers or light accumulations. Best chance is probably N of I-287/I-80. As of now I think the coastal plain sees light rain but may change to snow showers. This can still trend towards nothing as well. As you can see the does look to be a fresh injection of cold air with HP building during this period so we also may see this trend towards a colder soln if the LP trends a tad stronger.
"By day 6 the LP should move up and out to the NE and the cold frontal boundary should set up somewhere off the east coast. As you can see by the little black circles weak little waves may form along it but you can see a bigger LP gathering over SE Tx and a northern system set to dive into the plains. Im not sure if any of the weak waves along the frontal boundary end up amounting to anything just yet, but the possibility exists.
And here we are today: As you can see a weak wave of LP looks to pass off the coast somewhere south of LI as it rides along the aforementioned frontal boundary Monday. Models still differ on its exact track and intensity. Depending on exactly where and just how strong it is we may see snow showers or light accumulations. Best chance is probably N of I-287/I-80. As of now I think the coastal plain sees light rain but may change to snow showers. This can still trend towards nothing as well. As you can see the does look to be a fresh injection of cold air with HP building during this period so we also may see this trend towards a colder soln if the LP trends a tad stronger.
Last edited by sroc4 on Fri Feb 19, 2016 8:11 am; edited 1 time in total
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
frank 638 wrote:frank I hope you feel much better are you home
Not yet. Hopefully later today.
SNOW MAN wrote:Frank, glad to hear your feeling a little better. I have one question. When will the snow/rain start Sunday night or Monday morning ? Just thinking about what my commute will be like going to work. Thanks.
If this storm comes to fruition, the timing would be Sunday 7pm to 8am Monday. GFS and EURO don't even have a storm. Just the hi res models.
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Welcome back Frank. Amazing that Bill Evans this morning didn't even mention the possibility of a rain/snow event for Monday.
gigs68- Posts : 142
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Location : Commack, NY (NW Suffolk)
Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Here is Uptons take on this system:
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL AND QUITE PROGRESSIVE TO
BEGIN SUNDAY. AN H5 VORT MAX SWINGS ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES AND
CARVES OUT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
ENERGY DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC...AND THEN TRACKS QUICKLY OFF THE COAST TO SOMEWHERE NEAR
THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. WITH A PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN...THERE IS NOT
MUCH TIME FOR THIS WAVE TO AMPLIFY/STRENGTHEN INTO A DEEPER LOW.
OVERALL...00Z DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
AS THE ECMWF/GGEM/NAM ARE ALL PRETTY SIMILAR IN TRACK. THERE ARE
SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES...WITH THE NAM AND GGEM A BIT DEEPER. THE
GGEM IS THE FURTHEST NORTH...TRACKING THE LOW INSIDE THE BENCHMARK.
IT APPEARS THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z GEFS ARE OUTLIERS COMPARED TO THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE AS THE H5 ENERGY IS MORE ELONGATED AND THE
ATTENDANT SURFACE WAVE IS MUCH WEAKER. THE 03Z SREF MEAN IS
SIMILAR TO THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT THIS PIECE OF ENERGY IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NW COAST. SAMPLING SHOULD IMPROVE INTO SATURDAY AS THE
ENERGY MOVES OVER THE RAOB NETWORK.
SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. THERMAL PROFILES SHOULD BEGIN TO COOL
SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NE FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND THE LOW. THE LOW TRACK WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
PTYPE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE CURRENT CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE...POTENTIALLY CHANGING TO ALL SNOW EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHANCE FOR NOW. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...IF ENOUGH COLD AIR CAN MAKE IT INTO THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday. The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Well, Sun-Mon brings a chance of snow up here and now the 22nd is starting to look a bit better.Did get below 10 degrees here this AM.Winter hangs in there!!!
docstox12- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Math23x7 wrote:The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday. The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.
What's the average?
CPcantmeasuresnow- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
The average is 1.28" of snow but the median is still just a coating. At this point it doesn't look like we'll get that much but the trend should be monitored.
Math23x7- Wx Statistician Guru
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:Math23x7 wrote:The latest SREF run increases snow amounts for LaGuardia Airport for Monday. The most weenie-tastic plume gives it 9.2" of snow.
What's the average?
Cp and his statistical mind. NICE !!!! LOL !
SNOW MAN- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
right now forecasted on Sunday is snow showers 50% chance, and Monday partly cloudy
RJB8525- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
12z NAM
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
_________________
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CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Frank,
Glad to hear yuo are feeling better and thanks for posting even during this time.
GFS goes south again with this clipper.
UKMET needs to hold serve here.
Glad to hear yuo are feeling better and thanks for posting even during this time.
GFS goes south again with this clipper.
UKMET needs to hold serve here.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Welcome back Frank, your a trooper to already be back in action.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Welcome back Frank! Get some rest and I hope you feel 100% soon!
Guest- Guest
Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
CMC brings it north
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Ukie is a whiff looks like the GFS
algae888- Advanced Forecaster
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
algae888 wrote:Ukie is a whiff looks like the GFS
Yes south - see what euro has this afternoon.
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Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
amugs wrote:CMC brings it north
A bit weaker/less amped though than last nights run. I feel like if we want to see any snow we need heavier prewcip to cool the column quicker before the precip moves out.
_________________
"In weather and in life, there's no winning and losing; there's only winning and learning."
WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
WINTER 2014/2015 TOTALS 71.20"WINTER 2019/2020 TOTALS 6.35"
WINTER 2015/2016 TOTALS 35.00"WINTER 2020/2021 TOTALS 37.75"
WINTER 2016/2017 TOTALS 42.25"WINTER 2021/2022 TOTALS 31.65"
sroc4- Admin
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Euro - weak but a step in teh right direction towards the NAM and SREFS
Talking 1-3" N&W of NYC - Slushy - grass and cars type as of now
Talking 1-3" N&W of NYC - Slushy - grass and cars type as of now
_________________
Mugs
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
Mugsy. Your appetizer for the main event looks like some light rain setting the stage for heavy rain later on. Hope the models are wrong. You are definitely the king of optimism, but in late February now with 3 weeks to go, it looks like the glass is 90% empty or in your case 10% full
Guest- Guest
Re: February 22nd Snow Possible
The 18z NAM shows Mondays wave being amplified. And most of the precip falls in the overnight hours. Fantastic run, probably 3-6" for most with maybe 8" in parts of NNJ
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