Long Range Thread 11.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:22 am

Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 8:59 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW

I am ready! Break out the shorts. I am not that strongly believing we see a snowfall on Friday, at least not for coastal areas but we will see. After that I would like spring please and by this map looks like it could be here in another week or two.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 9:19 am

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
Quietace wrote:Even if transient wow...

Well even if by some miracle it did snow at the end of this week, this would pretty much melt it all in a day.

IHTW

We will see how it verifies.

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by hyde345 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 10:34 am

We are pretty much done with winter after next weekend. Friday may be our last shot.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by amugs on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:07 am

GFS has a storm and just S&E of the area
12Z Today


0Z



12Z yesterday


Can you say progress?? Maybe last shot at winter indeed with the forecast for absolute torch - we shall see

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by sroc4 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:25 am

Theres a third system behind the Friday one that needs to be watched as well

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:39 am

cmc continues to be a big hit...


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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:50 am

sroc4 wrote:Theres a third system behind the Friday one that needs to be watched as well
here is the gfs 12z today...
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:53 am

cmc and it's not done yet

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 11:59 am

ukie is firther north from 00z. I know there is a 12 hr difference but clearly north of 00z...


all winter models have under modeled WAR and have trended north and west as we get closer. plus it is now early march and the PV does not usually drop as far south as say January. I think we are in a good spot right now
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:12 pm

cmc total snowfall...lol
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:13 pm

[quote="algae888"]cmc and it's not done yet


Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by snow247 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:16 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:cmc and it's not done yet


Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.

Agree. CMC will verify.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:19 pm

here are the gefs 12z 00z and 12z yesterday...


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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:22 pm

wow that is an unusually tight clustering of members 4+ days out....
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:26 pm

navgem which is usually very progressive comes in all amped up.. do not have all panels yet..
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by docstox12 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 12:27 pm

CPcantmeasuresnow wrote:
algae888 wrote:cmc and it's not done yet


Looks about right

CNJ coast and LI win. No surprises here, and no reason for it to change now.

Yep, CP, this would be the final "kick in the head" (from that old Dean Martin song) for the HV.NYC gets a foot while we barely break two inches,LOL!
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:14 pm

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/4100815092001/cold-threat-for-snow-returns-t

Bernie Rayno this morning..
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:15 pm

euro at hr 72 looks much better than yesterday at same time. pv 100+ miles east and looks to moving out quicker. low further north..

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:20 pm

euro still a miss but it came further north...
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by jake732 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:26 pm

any reason to believe the cmc at all?? has it ever been correct?
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by jake732 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:28 pm

Lakewood Weather: Fridays Storm, out to sea??? http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/02/fridays-storm-out-to-sea.html?spref=tw
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:32 pm

jake732 wrote:any reason to believe the cmc at all?? has it ever been correct?
it's on it's own right now as most guidance is s/e of it. however good trends today esp. the pv quicker to move out on all guidance. let's give it until 00z Wednesday that's when s/w will be fully sampled
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by TheAresian on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:49 pm

Does anybody have a more detailed track for the next 48 hours for the Euro? I'm wondering whether or not I should cling to hope.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 2:05 pm

The Euro is a bumb by Carolinas and though OTS, it took quite a jog north on its way out. I supposed I could get into one more storm as long as the snow doesn't sit around making parking on the street a nightmare for weeks. But sounds like a torch is coming, are we talking 60s 70s after the 10th?
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

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