Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:14 pm

well not really, but a good cluster, and some of the individual runs put NYC with 12+! And after seeing Bernies video I see we will have no issues with tempos as the cold is down into DC area wow.

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Locati10

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Locati10

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:18 pm

ready for control, been 3 straight runs now that shown at least 6+.

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Contro10

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:22 pm

jmanley32 wrote:ready for control, been 3 straight runs now that shown at least 6+.

Okayy..... no more west please, Miss Euro! affraid

by **algae888** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:29 pm

12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li

by **algae888** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:52 pm

On another note ..
Latest values:
Nino 1.2: +1.2 (+0.2)
Nino 3: +1.6 (-0.2)
Nino 3.4: +1.8 (-0.1)
Nino 4: +1.5 (+0.1)
This nino is still strong. Going to be hard to flip to nina. Maybe nuetral enso next winter

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 16, 2016 4:57 pm

I cannot find para gfs on wxbell huh

by **Taffy** Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:01 pm

My sister in Boston is slated for 12.9".....I wouldn't mind a bit of that. Actually I want it all.

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:02 pm

algae888 wrote:12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li

where did u see this Al, and I am confused I thought the para gfs replaced the old gfs last year? There are still 2?

by **algae888** Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:21 pm

[quote="jmanley32"]

algae888 wrote:12z Paa gfs is a crusher 1-2" le from ne nj thru li

where did u see this Al, and I am confused I thought the para gfs replaced the old gfs last year?
http://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20160316%2012%20UTC¶m=precip_ptot&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=area

by **skinsfan1177** Wed Mar 16, 2016 5:31 pm

I have that feeling again Cnj coast may do well again.

by **Frank_Wx** Wed Mar 16, 2016 6:33 pm

A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

by **sroc4** Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:05 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

Giddy up Frank

by **Joe Snow** Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:29 pm

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:A new thread and blog will be up between 10 and 11pm tonight. The threat for a winter storm has been on models for awhile. Now it looks like models want to key in on Sunday into Monday for a potential Godzilla

Giddy up Frank

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Giddy_10

by **amugs** Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:39 pm

In the Navy you can sail the............................

aint sailin no place around these neck of the woods if this sucker verifies - BOOYAAAAHHHHH!!

by **jmanley32** Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:48 pm

Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.

by **Dunnzoo** Wed Mar 16, 2016 7:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.

The 6z and 18z were both crappy, they are the off-runs as I like to call them. I stick with the 12z and 00zs.

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:06 pm

does the Nam not come out soon?

by **algae888** Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:09 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.

gefs were slightly east. total acc precip
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_18

18z

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Gfs-ens_apcpn24_us_19

12z
.4le line through nyc at 108hrs on ensembles is still pretty darn good

by **algae888** Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:11 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Heh funny no one is mentioning the not so good trend of the 18z GFS, hopefully just a fluke.

ens west of 18z op

by **hyde345** Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:35 pm

There is no way I'm being sucked into this and get disappointed once again. If models are showing a storm with a benchmark track late Friday then I may get excited but not until then.

by **SoulSingMG** Wed Mar 16, 2016 8:57 pm

DGEX hammers us in its latest run, FWI. cheers

by Snowfall Wed Mar 16, 2016 9:13 pm

It can over produce and give a solid 1 foot area wide and some locally higher amounts in and around the NYC area just a hunch

by **jake732** Thu Mar 17, 2016 1:33 pm

Next week back into the 60s. Amazing!

by **jmanley32** Thu Mar 17, 2016 3:14 pm

LOL, if we get a Godzilla and then warmth and a big rainstorm guess what issue we go have then!

by **RJB8525** Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:17 am

this is nuts for asking but after this weekend is it officially over? i'm assuming it is but for long terms sake..we've had crazy march's and aprils

by **sroc4** Mon Mar 21, 2016 6:59 am

I am soooooo ready to just give in at this point. That said don't look now....April 1st-5th??????? Wouldn't that be a cruel April fools

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Eps_0013

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Eps_0013

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 15 Gefs_011

by **amugs** Mon Mar 21, 2016 9:21 am

Scott - April 6th Nor'easter - April 1982 redux??? - That woudl be teh ultimate kick in teh groin IMO. Gosh darn Nino just won't put it to rest where the H was this when we wanted it - bite me.

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