Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

by **weatherwatchermom** Wed Jun 15, 2016 10:38 pm

algae888 wrote:looks like other models caving to euro for late weekend early next week cutoff retrograding towards our area. euro knocked off 20* for highs on Monday. Tuesday looks very hot for one day as cold front heads our way. good ingredients for some severe weather if all come together.

of course it is going to be 90* on Tuesday Twisted Evil

the baseball commissioner this year has lost his mind...messed up the whole season..and on top of being controversial all season...for no good reason changed our championship game to Tuesday night...(all of us had family coming to game on Sat..forecasted to be a beautiful day) arrr..so mad to begin with..his grandparents and his cousins wanted to see the game.they can not come on a weeknight... ....and now 90 degrees. arrr. I hope the weather changes!! (sorry for rant...)

by **jmanley32** Fri Jun 17, 2016 6:52 pm

I know its early but yes I agree Tues could get very ugly with those 90 degree temps and look at the cape values holy crap with the front coming through. I could see SPC putting us under enhanced or higher if these parameters verify. Frank do you have any thoughts on potential severe storms around this time?

I just noticed thats 00z hour on wednesday what is that 7pm tues and still in the 90s, oopphh!!! weather mom, may be no game if severe weather comes into play. GFS since you all seem to like the GFS lately...

CAPE:
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Gfs_ca10

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Gfs_ca10

by **weatherwatchermom** Sat Jun 18, 2016 7:31 am

jmanley32 wrote:I know its early but yes I agree Tues could get very ugly with those 90 degree temps and look at the cape values holy crap with the front coming through. I could see SPC putting us under enhanced or higher if these parameters verify. Frank do you have any thoughts on potential severe storms around this time?

I just noticed thats 00z hour on wednesday what is that 7pm tues and still in the 90s, oopphh!!! weather mom, may be no game if severe weather comes into play. GFS since you all seem to like the GFS lately...

CAPE:

Tx Jman a lot of us mother's complained to commissioner and he put back the game to Saturday!!! Wish us luck!!!

by **Frank_Wx** Sat Jun 18, 2016 8:01 am

Not seeing severe potential on Tuesday.

by **Snow88** Sat Jun 18, 2016 9:23 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Not seeing severe potential on Tuesday.

Another failed event? Sad

by **algae888** Sat Jun 18, 2016 1:14 pm

81* dp 51* can't get better weather than this. With la nina being so slow to form and the four to six-week lag time in the 500 mb pattern change combined with the near record +pdo, i wouldn't expect any sustained Heat anytime soon.

by **frank 638** Sat Jun 18, 2016 3:11 pm

I will take it I hate a hot hot summer esp when its 90 plus degs with high humidity nasty

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:02 am

algae888 wrote:81* dp 51* can't get better weather than this. With la nina being so slow to form and the four to six-week lag time in the 500 mb pattern change combined with the near record +pdo, i wouldn't expect any sustained Heat anytime soon.

D
Any day like today I would take any time..whAt a fantastic day spent with family..too bad we lost our game...20 to 16..boys fought hard..we at least get one more chance!!

by **weatherwatchermom** Sun Jun 19, 2016 12:49 pm

Hey...so do the great minds on this board think we will be in this type of weather pattern for the next 4 weeks....we leave next Saturday for a 3 week boat trip up to Lake Champlain?!!

by **Frank_Wx** Mon Jun 20, 2016 11:03 pm

weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey...so do the great minds on this board think we will be in this type of weather pattern for the next 4 weeks....we leave next Saturday for a 3 week boat trip up to Lake Champlain?!!

The bulk of our days will be dry with temps in the 80s. There's a chance by the beginning of July we could get into a wetter than normal pattern, which would keep temps down, but model guidance is spread. The below image shows a warm pattern taking hold of the country by Day 10. As expected, this is shaping up to be a hot summer for much of the US.

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Test8

by **weatherwatchermom** Tue Jun 21, 2016 5:52 am

Frank_Wx wrote:
weatherwatchermom wrote:Hey...so do the great minds on this board think we will be in this type of weather pattern for the next 4 weeks....we leave next Saturday for a 3 week boat trip up to Lake Champlain?!!

The bulk of our days will be dry with temps in the 80s. There's a chance by the beginning of July we could get into a wetter than normal pattern, which would keep temps down, but model guidance is spread. The below image shows a warm pattern taking hold of the country by Day 10. As expected, this is shaping up to be a hot summer for much of the US.

Thank you Frank. Have a great vacation!!!

by **amugs** Tue Jun 21, 2016 7:37 pm

Nino trying to hold on here and the longer it does as Al says the longer we wait for the transition to a Nina statistically speaking.

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino3Mon

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino3Mon

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Wkxzteq_all

NIna giving Nino the finger right up the middle - interesting

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Sstanim

by **amugs** Sun Jun 26, 2016 8:52 pm

Interesting I saw this on Twitter on the Greenland Ice Sheet Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Img_2011

by **algae888** Wed Jun 29, 2016 1:51 pm

hearing enso for upcoming winter may end up neutral or weak la nina. jb for one thinks this is possible. nina is already behind guidance with warming taking place this week across most of enso regions sans 1.2...
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1

by **algae888** Wed Jun 29, 2016 3:12 pm

also sub sea surface temps aren't as impressive..
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Wkxzteq_anm

by **algae888** Fri Jul 01, 2016 10:51 pm

Looks like we may have our first heat wave starting around next Friday as the -EPO relaxes. however the EPO is expected to crash again into negative territory which should allow more cold fronts to cross our area as the northern stream jet Remains the dominant player this summer so far.
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 4panel

however the pna also goes neg sharply and nao pos. interesting to see which indicators will drive pattern.

by **algae888** Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:11 pm

none of our experts have commented recently on the state of enso.
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino3Mon

this is what cfsv2 showed which is similar to other guidance.
however this is the current state.
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino34

region 3.4 for june finished at 0.37. way warmer than guidance. any thoughts.

by **algae888** Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:18 pm

actually the graph above is from nino3 which shows -0.5 by july 1st. this is region 3 as of july 6th.
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino3

guidance is off by almost 1 degree Celsius.

by **algae888** Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:34 pm

this is the latest cfsv2 forecast for region 3.4
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino34Mon

this is about 20 days earlier
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino34Mon

notice how we do not see any members at -1.5C or lower. lowest numbers are closer to -1C now. very 95-96 ish
edit the blue lines are the more recent runs.

by **algae888** Wed Jul 06, 2016 8:51 pm

nino 4 never gets to nina state,
Long Range Thread 11.0 - Page 24 Nino4Sea

so will we end up with an east based nina which i'm hearing is better for us than a west based one? opposite of nino

by **algae888** Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:37 am

I am hearing that the euro seasonal for the enso which came out yesterday now matches other guidance and shows a very weak La Nina for the upcoming winter Very Happy

by **frank 638** Sat Jul 09, 2016 10:52 am

What is the difference between a weak LA Nina and a strong LA Nina

by **algae888** Sat Jul 09, 2016 11:50 am

frank 638 wrote:What is the difference between a weak LA Nina and a strong LA Nina

A stronger la nina would pump up the South East Ridge which is something we do not want. It would force the jet stream north of us hence warmer and drier conditions for our area. The weaker the enso the less influence it would have on our atmosphere. Allowing other factors like high-latitude blocking, sswe and the weaker sun to have a more significant role in our weather.

by **Math23x7** Sat Jul 09, 2016 12:44 pm

Is there a site that states the location of the El Ninos and La Ninas (meaning were they west-based or east-based)?

Looking at the weak/moderate/strong/very strong La Nina list, there is a somewhat of a mixed bag.

Looking at the Weak La Nina list, it includes 1995-96, which gave CPK 75.6" of snow, but it also includes 2011-12, which gave CPK 7.4" of snow (2.9" of which occurred in October).

In the Moderate La Nina list, it includes below normal snowfall years such as 1998-99, 1999-2000, and 2007-08, but it also includes 2010-11 which gave CPK 61.9" of snow.

Now, looking at the strong La Nina years, two of those years were below normal (1975-76 and 1988-89) but one of them (1973-74) gave CPK 23.5" of snow along with a lot of ice from the December 1973 storm. Of course, when you look at the 1941-70 30-year normal and see the average snow then was 28.2", I would have to said it was considered then to be below normal in terms of snowfall.

by **frank 638** Sat Jul 09, 2016 1:35 pm

Thanks everyone for explaining the difference between strong to weak la Nina I would love to have a repeat of 95 96 winter season. If anyone remembers we had 75 or 80 inches of snow

by **algae888** Sat Jul 09, 2016 2:00 pm

Mike what I've been reading from other boards is that most recent La ninas have been West Based. However prior to 1990 they were mostly east-based.

by **nutleyblizzard** Sat Jul 09, 2016 7:58 pm

With the latest models now forecasting a weak La Nina, that is good news for next winter for us snow fanatics. If we can get a -NAO to coincide with it we'll be in business for an active winter. Without the blocking, if you go back to prior Nina's its more of a crapshoot.

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