Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

[frank 638]

has anyone checked out accu weather fall out look they have us for a warm mild fall please tell me this is not true i would rather have a cool somewhat dry fall i know its way early things can change

[algae888]

Australia mets enso outlook...

La Niña WATCH remains, while strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole continues



Despite some cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean surface waters, ENSO indicators remain neutral and well shy of La Niña thresholds. In contrast, a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, with ocean temperature well above average in the eastern Indian Ocean and below average near Africa.

All international climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate the negative IOD will persist until the end of spring, which historically has brought increased rainfall to southern Australia. Sea surface temperatures have cooled slightly in the tropical Pacific over the past fortnight. Some atmospheric indicators have shifted slightly towards La Niña thresholds, but all remain within neutral bounds.

All climate models indicate more cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean is likely, but only two of eight models exceed La Niña thresholds for an extended period. A La Niña WATCH (indicating a 50% chance of La Niña in 2016) remains, but if La Niña does develop it would most likely be weak.

May to July 2016 was Australia's third-wettest May–July on record. During negative IOD events, southern Australia typically experiences above average winter–spring rainfall and cooler than average daytime temperatures, with warmer daytime and night-time temperatures in northern Australia.



Climate monitoring and prediction La Niña WATCH
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/#tabs=Overview

[algae888]

mjo heading towards a strong phase 6 which means it could become the driver of our weather. as for it's effects on our weather get ready for a below to well below normal temps second half of august...

[Dunnzoo]

Hope it's just a degree or two below normal, headed to SSP for the last 2 weeks of August and like warmer days.

[docstox12]

mjo heading towards a strong phase 6 which means it could become the driver of our weather.  as for it's effects on our weather get ready for a below to well below normal temps second half of august...

Al, after the heat of July this would not surprise me.I remember many very cool periods after August 15 in years past.Anyway, sunlight decreases each day, its apparent to me now getting darker sooner.

[skinsfan1177]

Typhoon Omais may bring troughiness to the east and also the upper air pattern may become favorable for the east coast of a tropical system were to develope. Which could mean wetter and cooler conditions second half of month. To Algae point on the mjo.

[weatherwatchermom]

Hey leaving for Orlando for a 5 day trip with my son August 21st...so does the trend look to be cooler?? I am braving the heat of Disney in August..lol...so a few degrees cooler would be wonderful!! Thanks!!

only 116 days until Meteorological Winter!!!

[amugs]

Cohen saying this AO going N which will eventually mean cooler temps

[Frank_Wx]

Hey leaving for Orlando for  a 5 day trip with my son August 21st...so does the trend look to be cooler?? I am braving the heat of Disney in August..lol...so a few degrees cooler would be wonderful!! Thanks!!

only 116 days until Meteorological Winter!!!

I would say right now expect temps in the 90s with a chance of storms every day in the afternoon. 




amugs

Cohen saying this AO going N which will eventually mean cooler temps

That H5 map doesn't look too cool...

[algae888]

will we be losing the +pdo for winter? look at how cool the pacific has become. a little concerning...

[amugs]

Weak La Nina on latest model runs fir upcoming winter and we need the warm blob as we had in 13-14 that drove winter in the GOA:




Look at 13-14

[amugs]

From JB on winter


August 8 04:55 PM
There is no doubt I am fired up about the winter, but as per the last 4 winters, thinking JFM is the core of the winter. However in the winter forecast we emphasized that there was some worry about a faster start. In any case the European, by again weakening the cold enso signal, leaves the warm water ring in the Pacific and the warm western Atlantic as the dominant 2 factors. If this is to be and blocking is as we see in low geomagnetic , it offers the threat of winters that can resemble the 95-96 winter. Certainly the SST analog, which amazingly has some similarities to the Euro has been hinting that way which would make sense since it has a weak enso signal at best
59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing.
My big worry is as stated before ( outside of the idea the La Nina could be strong, but I think that is fading) that its a matter of when, not if. Our updated winter forecast is later this month .
But count me as someone that liked the look of the Euro, as to where it put troughs and ridges and its usual problems with actually finding any cold in the longer range, so that "normal" is a significant hint.

Threat of 95-96 is an absolute comparison that has not been mentioned in write ups I have seen in a very long time, decade at least. You don't throw the best wintwr season since the mini ice age years of the 1800s and 1700s out there.

[nutleyblizzard]

From JB on winter


August 8 04:55 PM
There is no doubt I am fired up about the winter, but as per the last 4 winters, thinking JFM is the core of the winter. However in the winter forecast we emphasized that there was some worry about a faster start. In any case the European, by again weakening the cold enso signal, leaves the warm water ring in the Pacific and the warm western Atlantic as the dominant 2 factors. If this is to be and blocking is as we see in low geomagnetic , it offers the threat of winters that can resemble the 95-96 winter. Certainly the SST analog, which amazingly has some similarities to the Euro has been hinting that way which would make sense since it has a weak enso signal at best
59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing.
My big worry is as stated before ( outside of the idea the La Nina could be strong, but I think that is fading) that its a matter of when, not if. Our updated winter forecast is later this month .
But count me as someone that liked the look of the Euro, as to where it put troughs and ridges and its usual problems with actually finding any cold in the longer range, so that "normal" is a significant hint.

Threat of 95-96 is an absolute comparison that has not been mentioned in write ups I have seen in a very long time, decade at least. You don't throw the best wintwr season since the mini ice age years of the 1800s and 1700s out there.

Message to JB: Woah slow down cowboy!!! As I stated in an earlier post, you wan't to give it a couple of months to see how the weather anomalies shake out. Just look back a few months ago when the LR weather models were barking at a strong Nina. Long range forecasting is not an exact science, things can and will change. While a weak Nina is looking much more likely at this point, what about the other factors in play? For instance, will the +PDO hold up into the winter? What about the -NAO which has alluded us the past several winters? Don't get me wrong I wan't a 95-96 winter more than anyone, but to forecast one at this early juncture is foolhardy to say the least.

[frank 638]

Its way to early to talk about the winter .I will def take a 95 96 winter one of the best winter we had

[Artechmetals]

Good morning people , does anyone know if Thursday and Friday 18th and 19th are good beach weather in pt pleasant ? Weather showing scattered t storms do you think that will change ?

[algae888]

Good morning people , does anyone know if Thursday and Friday 18th and 19th are good beach weather in pt pleasant ? Weather showing scattered t storms do you think that will change ?

The cold front that's over the Midwest was supposed to cross the area Monday the models have slowed this up till Sometime Late next week keep checking back as the front looks to get hung up an educated guess the front comes through sometime Thursday so could be unsettled weather

[Artechmetals]

Thanks

[HectorO]

Hey leaving for Orlando for  a 5 day trip with my son August 21st...so does the trend look to be cooler?? I am braving the heat of Disney in August..lol...so a few degrees cooler would be wonderful!! Thanks!!

only 116 days until Meteorological Winter!!!

From someone who used to live in FL, don't let the threat of thunderstorm scare you lol. Literally everday in FL there is a threat for one in the summer. I used to see forecasts for weeks with thunderstorms in the area that never came about. As far as August goes, you're brave. Floridians goes to Disney in October and November

[amugs]

If the Jamstec can deliver these SST goods then I think we can be in good shape for this upcoming winter.

Come on us weeneis are always looking towards this season only 127 days to go!
https://days.to/until/winter

[weatherwatchermom]

Hey leaving for Orlando for  a 5 day trip with my son August 21st...so does the trend look to be cooler?? I am braving the heat of Disney in August..lol...so a few degrees cooler would be wonderful!! Thanks!!

only 116 days until Meteorological Winter!!!

From someone who used to live in FL, don't let the threat of thunderstorm scare you lol. Literally everday in FL there is a threat for one in the summer. I used to see forecasts for weeks with thunderstorms in the area that never came about. As far as August goes, you're brave. Floridians goes to Disney in October and November

thanks hector...we are away a lot of the summer on the boat and we are going to Disney for a few days...I really do not want to take my son out of school. to make the trip...I will prob regret that move...will let you know!!

[dkodgis]

One thing you know is you will have very high humidity and if you drink coffee in the morning, go with a small cup of Espresso to give you the jolt for the day but not warm you up too much. Enjoy your trip.

[weatherwatchermom]

One thing you know is you will have very high humidity and if you drink coffee in the morning, go with a small cup of Espresso to give you the jolt for the day but not warm you up too much. Enjoy your trip.

Tx

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The Accuweather 90 day forecast has the first snow event for the HV on November 16th, there will however be mixing issues.

Bank on it. It's a rock solid lock.

Thought I'd throw this in. NYC has now had 13 consecutive months of above normal temperatures. The last below normal month was June 2015 which was a mere 0.2F below  normal. This August will make it 14 months in a row.

[Dtone]

The Accuweather 90 day forecast has the first snow event for the HV on November 16th, there will however be mixing issues.

Bank on it. It's a rock solid lock.

Thought I'd throw this in. NYC has now had 13 consecutive months of above normal temperatures. The last below normal month was June 2015 which was a mere 0.2F below  normal. This August will make it 14 months in a row.

i'll go out on a limb and say Sept will be the 15th in a row.

[amugs]

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