Long Range Thread 11.0

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:18 pm

just heard on Channel 7 there is a "possibility"of some snow at the end of the week..one can only hope
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by mako460 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 5:36 pm

At that rate the EPS will have this storm in England by next Wednesday.

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sat Feb 27, 2016 6:18 pm

Scott that's a pretty nice trend. Here is a look at 500mb vort from 12z EURO OP. 



The polar energy digs into the northeast and injects the area with fresh arctic air. Meanwhile, a surface low developed near the Mid-Atlantic from the southern energy and acts as a boundary wave up the coast. Interior portions of the northeast into New England see decent snow. If the southern and polar energy phase there would have been cyclogenesis off the coast of NJ. The +NAO and collapsing western ridge due to the next upper energy associated with Fridays storm are reasons why cyclogenesis will be difficult to achieve. I do think a rain to snow scenario is still possible for those north and west of NYC. I don't think we want this trending east. Rather, we want to see a phase between both branches.

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by jake732 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 8:23 pm

Is this our last snow event?? I would guess yes. http://lakewood732weather.blogspot.com/2016/02/is-this-our-last-snow-event-i-would.html
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:18 pm

gfs likes the 2 low idea nice hit for interior...



this is for wens system


Last edited by algae888 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:24 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Sat Feb 27, 2016 11:23 pm

also has lost the storm for Friday. n/s that gets washed out. s/s exits through south florida...
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:35 am

GGEM is a nice hit for coastal areas friday
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:50 am

Euro is beautiful. Mid atlantic and snj get hit hard. NYC gets around 6 inches.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 8:20 am

First wave waffling back west again on modeling for 2nd/3rd.  Even Ukie shifted the track just over or west of NYC.  I don't think there is enough here to really make a difference, but not dismissing it just yet, esp areas N/W.  

As Snow88 pointed out the Euro is really close with the second system for everyone.  It has some support from its own ensembles.  The CMC is an all out bombski for NNJ, Lower HV, NYC, LI, and S NE.  And the GFS still keeps the northern and southern branches separate sliding the second system south off the Fla/Ga coast and way OTS.  I wont take this too seriously yet since we are still shifting the first system a bit but is def on the Radar. How/where the March 2nd/3rd system interacts with the PV will be pivotal to the second system IMO.  

Here are the CMC, Euro, and GFS respectively at 500mb.  Notice they all have energy busting through and affecting the ridge out west.  Ive only circled it on the first image(CMC).  The timing of this energy, and how it affects the ridge will as usual play a role in the system for the 4th/5th.  

But I think the key this time is actually to our N and E.  In the images below(all represent 18z March 4th) I highlighted the Polar Vortex (PV) and the NAO region into the Greenland area.  As the first system on the 2nd/3rd moves up and out of our area it will draw the PV into Eastern Canada beginning to form a block.  As you can see on the CMC it forms a nice tight vortex which pumps up the -NAO ridge into Canada.  Notice on the CMC the -NAO ridge axis is the most east to west oriented and extends furthest west into Greenland.  This allows the Northern Short Wave(N s/w) to Catch up to the Southern Short Wave(S s/w), and phase the two.   The Euro is slightly less amped and slightly more NW-SE oriented with the -NAO ridge axis, but is similar, and the GFS has the energy most string out within the PV, and as a result has the most neutral looking NAO.  This results in the N s/w and S s/w remaining completely separate; whereas, the CMC and Euro phase the two pieces and we get a formidable storm nearby.  






Here is what the surface maps look like, CMC, Euro, GFS respectively, by 6z March5th relative to the above 500mb interactions.  Notice in all 3maps a nice banana HP is over top from SW to NE.






When we get under 5days, and the system on the 2nd/3rd is no longer jumping around it will be time to zero in on the late week system.  I am not going to get too excited as to not get too let down if it doesn't work out.  Enjoy your Sunday!!

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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 28, 2016 8:26 am

A winter storm is possible on Friday of this week. Here is the 500mb pattern leading up to this event valid Thursday afternoon.




The southern short wave is nicely digging into the eastern CONUS in response to the western ridge. There PV is in southeast Canada and there is a transient ridge over the NAO region acting as a -NAO. The problem with having the PV located in that spot is it surpresses heights and risks the storm system to shear out or stay south and meander out to sea. The ridge out west is also collapsing east so this is still a progressive pattern which makes phasing / timing very important. 



Here we are early Friday morning now looking at the vorticity map from 00z EURO. Notice how heights in the west go flat. What allows a storm to turn the corner and come up the coast is a piece of northern s/w breaks off the PV and phases into the southern s/w. That's another thing I'm worried about. Relying on s/w to break off the PV can be risky. 

I think there's a long way to go still. I'm actually favoring and out to sea solution at this moment. I'll reevaluate Tuesday.

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 9:11 am

Nice Frank. Looking at the time stamp we were both hard at work at the same times. Same box, slightly different perspectives, overall same ideas.

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Isotherm on Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:15 am

This event is contingent upon the orientation/behavior of the PV lobe in Quebec IMO. If one compares the 06z GFS and 00z ECMW valid 00z Friday, one can see that the major difference is the handling of the vorticity associated w/ the vortex. The PNA spike in the Rockies is actually slightly more meridional on the GFS, and the axis approaching the Plains is near ideal for this time of year due to increasingly shorter wavelengths. The GFS depicts an elongated piece of mid level vorticity hanging SW of the core vortex which acts to destructively interfere with the amplification of the short wave (height suppression). Euro depicts much more consolidated vorticity around the vortex core in Quebec, thus allowing more room for amplification. So, to me, that's key. We're beginning to enter the euro's high skill score time frame so hopefully it is more accurate there. Though the GFS has been a tough rival at times, and I'd feel much more comfortable if we saw some correcting toward the euro. As has been discussed ad nausem, the larger scale signals support this period. Now it comes down to - can we get the smaller scale features to behave properly.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by sroc4 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 10:26 am

Tom quick question regarding the MJO forecasts: What is the difference between the two GEFS and the Two ECMF forecasts. In the images below the second image for the respected forecast is the supposed "corrected" forecast; at least that's what Ive heard. What does that mean exactly?






_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Snow88 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:06 am

GFS still doesnt have a second storm
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:40 am

I hope the Euro shows its verification score the well 5 days out with this next storm - if we can get  this to work out it woudl be a very nice storm for our area.
Reading up on posts and watching JB's Saturday summary he points out some interesting points that the GFS is struggling with - it always seems to be doing this - PV orientation, Aleutian Low that it has in a much more sw orientation thus dampening the heights along teh WC where as the Euro has it more NW and allows the heights to rise over the central rockies. If we want a storm to come up the coast we need a ridge axis over this region - 4 corners up to Montana N/S preferably.  I hope to see the gfs move towards the euro solution the next round of runs. keep in mind we have not seen our storms snow storms come about until 2-3 days before hand. Just my opinion here.

This is what we all want to verify and hold serve

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by amugs on Sun Feb 28, 2016 11:52 am

CMC says HELLLLOOOOOOOO






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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Quietace on Sun Feb 28, 2016 12:00 pm

amugs wrote:CMC says HELLLLOOOOOOOO





BL is fairly warm, I would be careful of that along the coast...

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Feb 28, 2016 1:58 pm

Today's models are out to sea for the possible storm Friday. The CMC is not but it trended in that direction at H5. I'm favoring the OTS scenario but will keep an eye out. If the storm does come up the coast it should be an easy 6"+ for most.

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by SoulSingMG on Sun Feb 28, 2016 3:08 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:Today's models are out to sea for the possible storm Friday. The CMC is not but it trended in that direction at H5. I'm favoring the OTS scenario but will keep an eye out. If the storm does come up the coast it should be an easy 6"+ for most.
I'd much rather an OTS solution than an inland runner. I can't take anymore of those. 

Re. this season: I cannot complain too much; I got my blizzard and we broke a 26 year record with cold. It'll def go down as one of the most extreme winters in history.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by CPcantmeasuresnow on Sun Feb 28, 2016 4:33 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Today's models are out to sea for the possible storm Friday. The CMC is not but it trended in that direction at H5. I'm favoring the OTS scenario but will keep an eye out. If the storm does come up the coast it should be an easy 6"+ for most.
I'd much rather an OTS solution than an inland runner. I can't take anymore of those. 

Re. this season: I cannot complain too much; I got my blizzard and we broke a 26 year record with cold. It'll def go down as one of the most extreme winters in history.

I guess as I've said before it all comes down to your point of view.

This is the second warmest winter in history, and take away the blizzard and NYC has had 4.4 inches of snow all winter. Add in only 20 days below normal out of the 91 days in December through February and this winter is a total flop.

I suppose for those that want to look at this misreable winter? as favorable Uncle W summed it up on another forum very succinctly, "This is the best lousy winter I have ever lived through".
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by hyde345 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 6:26 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Today's models are out to sea for the possible storm Friday. The CMC is not but it trended in that direction at H5. I'm favoring the OTS scenario but will keep an eye out. If the storm does come up the coast it should be an easy 6"+ for most.
I'd much rather an OTS solution than an inland runner. I can't take anymore of those. 

Re. this season: I cannot complain too much; I got my blizzard and we broke a 26 year record with cold. It'll def go down as one of the most extreme winters in history.

The OTS scenario doesn't surprise me at all. Murphy's Law and all. This winter has been an absolute joke. 70* on Christmas, storms going south and east and me getting nothing to cutters with 60 and heavy rain. Major fail. Grade F.
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by frank 638 on Sun Feb 28, 2016 6:38 pm

i agree so much potental this winter stinks i will grade this winter a d .i just want this winter over with and i look forward for spring

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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:08 am

so the cmc still gives us a nice snowfall for Friday and gfs slowly coming around...



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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by algae888 on Mon Feb 29, 2016 1:09 am

ukie...

east but better than last run
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Re: Long Range Thread 11.0

Post by Quietace on Mon Feb 29, 2016 7:45 am

Even if transient wow...

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