03/04 Minor Snow Event

Ukie looks the same as the GFS

6z GFS is more amped and ticked closer to the coast. Literally another 50 mile shift NW and it would have been a good hit. The models will have the storm fully sampled today. Let's see if the west trends continue at 12z.

Nuts absolutely another 50 mile tick nw and we have a warning type of event. 12z should be interesting

amugs wrote:

Nuts absolutely another 50 mile tick nw and we have a warning type of event. 12z should be interesting

Going to need more than 50 miles imo.

GFS is pretty much in its own right now

sroc4 wrote:GFS is pretty much in its own right now

EPS is showing 1-2" for the NNJ area and NYC - 3" as you go east from there. The mean.

Another 50 mile tick NW and it gets even better.

6z GFS is close to a major bomb, 980s low off the coast and tight gradient, showing 60-70kt surface winds just offshore, if it moves NW, watch out, but the way this winters been going the NAN is probably right with a light clipper type event. Will moniter.

srefs got wetter...

03z

09z

FWIW JB is calling for 3-6 for I-95 corridor with potential for 12". Bold to say the least.

Algae888, the "wetter" srefs can be accounted for the fact that there is one plume that gives NYC 26" of snow from this system (aka Jonas redux). Needless to say, I highly doubt that that plume verifies.

Math23x7 wrote:Algae888, the "wetter" srefs can be accounted for the fact that there is one plume that gives NYC 26" of snow from this system (aka Jonas redux).  Needless to say, I highly doubt that that plume verifies.

But imagine if you will if it did.

Need the ridge in the west to lift a bit more or the heights to rise more on the coast ahead of this LP to get it turn more North IMO - we are so frickin close again. 50-75 mile NW jog and we are in business - can it be done??

just watched Bernie--says he will not rule out storm for us just yet...always a interesting to watch him..love the way he explains everything!

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/late-week-storm-to-threaten-mi

Meh, I am not excited for this. I hope I'm wrong.

12z GFS...nothing changed. General 1-3" area wide.

I want nothing more then for you to be wrong.

Frank_Wx wrote:Meh, I am not excited for this. I hope I'm wrong.

your probably right...but I hope you are wrong..just this once

When will we have a more definitive idea? I have concert tickets in NYC on Friday night and a big storm might prevent me from getting there =\

sabamfa wrote:When will we have a more definitive idea? I have concert tickets in NYC on Friday night and a big storm might prevent me from getting there =\

Not a big storm at this time S & E she goes and going to be another miss with a big coastal.

We cant win with these storms this winter = sucks imo and frustrating as all H.
Precip gradient starting to tighten up on models.

In general, the system is compact because the upper level system is not that expansive. If the upper system turns out to be more intense, we might see a bit more wrap around 700 mb moisture but even at that, it probably will remain offshore.

Storms to the left of me, storms to the right, stuck in the middle with you. This storm is another one that is giving us a big FU, especially to the HV.

Hyde winter if you can call it that came in south and east and left south and east and those cutters well that was another slap in the face! why change this storm says as it makes that south and east move.

Joe cioffi Snowfall map is up he has for 1 to 2 inches for NYC Westchester nj and parts of long island .with 2 to 3 inches for east of long island I hope this goes up

Congrats to the Cape & Islands for their newly issued Winter Storm Watch. 

We are painfully close to getting a big snowstorm.

SREFS A BIT NW BUMP - HOLDING OUT SOME HOPE!

GFS went east.GGEM is a whiff.

To next winter guys seen you then