2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:00 pm

More in depth forecasts for tropical cyclone activity will become available in coming months(NHC/Private entities). In my limited spare time I have been observing a few variables in the Tropical Atlantic...
The weakening + ENSO could force atmospheric responses to allow for more favorable upper level conditions for development in the MDR.
Yet, these atmospheric conditions could be counteracted by the negative departures in the MDR in the Atlantic.  Currently MDR SST anomalies are near neutral, leaning slightly negative during a recent drop. This is while, nearly every other region of Atlantic SST in correspondence with interest in cyclone development are running .4-.6 degrees C above normal.


4-Month based analogs suggest slight warming of the MDR and cooling of other Atlantic Regions as Normal conditions reappear over the Nino region. The current CFS.v2 also suggests slight warming of the MDR in the coming months.


I have also been observing the relative strength and northward variability of the ITCZ over Africa on long range guidance, and the persistence of positive precipitation departures in the central Atlantic.


For the sake of sanity I hope for a slightly more active season to allow for some fun tracking.


Last edited by Quietace on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:12 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:02 pm

Should have included Statistical/Dynamic modeling forecasts for ENSO region

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:10 pm

Nice post Ryan. I hope there is something to track this season as well.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue Mar 01, 2016 7:16 pm

Ryan great analysis here kid, I have lots to learn on H'canes. I hope we get two cyclones that make direct hits.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Mar 09, 2016 12:17 pm

I think it will be an active year and possibly land falling storms. FWIW (very little) the farmers almanac calls for at least one TS up here and hurricane threat here but looks quite per them for majority of summer. When does Colorado come out with their prediction, last was in December.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Apr 14, 2016 3:34 pm

CSU put out their prediction, looks like another fairly quiet year but it only takes one. 12 named storms, 5 hurricanes and two majors is their call, but they have been wrong before.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Thu Apr 14, 2016 7:29 pm

12 seems a little low to me. 15 seems like a better number. Global wind pattern is a bit more favorable this year compared to last. I don't think trade winds will be as strong. Annnd, like Jman said, it only takes one.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Apr 17, 2016 10:38 pm

There is a Cat 5 cyclone in the Indian Ocean. Strongest ever recorded in that region. No wonder the MJO was so active this winter - SST's are WARM there.


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace on Mon Apr 18, 2016 7:32 am

Frank_Wx wrote:There is a Cat 5 cyclone in the Indian Ocean. Strongest ever recorded in that region. No wonder the MJO was so active this winter - SST's are WARM there.

Its perfection Shocked cyclops


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon May 23, 2016 4:17 pm

Ahhh you gotta love TWC going before the NHC shows anything. It happens and models do show a very weak low LR but this article is not necessary.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/atlantic-basin-tropical-subtropical-development-late-may-early-june-2016
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed May 25, 2016 8:23 pm

We have our first possible tropical system (well second Alex was in January) currently at 30/60 % for 5 day.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri May 27, 2016 9:34 pm


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat May 28, 2016 5:37 am

Yep and according to models looks like a lot moisture could be pulled up here to rain a lot of monday. Frank anythoghts?
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace on Sat May 28, 2016 7:33 am

High precipitable water values associated with the tropical system, combined with frontal forcings will enhance precip and drop a inch or two of rain. Not a big deal as precip shield on models is rather thin in nature, certainty not a organized post tropical system with developed shield.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Quietace on Sat May 28, 2016 8:03 am

Small Convection blow up before it moves over cooler shelf water. Gulf Stream feeding enhancement prior to landfall.


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sat May 28, 2016 10:26 am

Models also hinting that it will be overnight Sunday into Monday with most precip S. Jersey and LI... (S&E, S&E haha) we might be able to salvage Monday afternoon for BBQ

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat May 28, 2016 6:31 pm



18Z GFS



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat May 28, 2016 7:37 pm


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Jun 02, 2016 10:06 pm

Colin looks to be next in the 10 day range.
These in close trop cyclones are going to be the name of the game short term. Once we get to Aug through late October I think we ramp up the hcanes due to many factors but the ACE is a big one besides Nina.
From the bell
[/url][/img]

[/url][/img]



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:24 pm

Well those in the NJ and NY coastline will cringe at these stats for hcane damage possibility in this article. Yikes! !

http://www.insurancejournal.com/news/national/2016/06/01/410357.htm

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Jun 04, 2016 3:28 pm

Look at what the EPS AND Euro show

[/url][/img]

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Jun 04, 2016 5:08 pm

amugs wrote:Look at what the EPS AND Euro show

[/url][/img]

not seeing the images.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Radz on Sun Jun 05, 2016 7:36 pm

Colin is born... earliest 3rd named storm
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:03 pm


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Jun 05, 2016 10:05 pm


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