2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Sun Aug 21, 2016 9:53 am

1. = 99L
2. = 90L

Looks like 90L will be Gaston and a monster Cane GFS takes it to a 908 mb Storm heading west in the Atlantic.(Yes I know its a long way off but its good to track storms till the snow flies)


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located about 750 miles east-northeast of the
Leeward Islands.

1. Disorganized showers a few thunderstorms associated with a tropical
wave are located about 1150 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for
development during the next few days, and any development should be
slow to occur. This system is expected to move westward and then
west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic
Ocean, through the eastern Caribbean Sea, and then near the Greater
Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

2. Cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the far eastern Atlantic
Ocean are associated with a low pressure area and tropical wave
that has moved off the west coast of Africa. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a
tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days
while the system moves westward and then northwestward over the
eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Forecaster Brown
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 11:34 am

Will 90l Def b a fish storm I recall a few model runs shoeing it almost making it to the us. And what weakness does it see that 99l didnt? I'd think 90l would head west too. But yes we could have our first cat 5 in quite some time if models are right. 99l might also still surprise us if it makes it to around bahamas which 0z gfs did develop a hurricane again. I wonder if the models are just going kinda nuts as there are 3 systems not so far apart and that's making for the constant changes. I recall frank sayING something about so many energies and models can't focus in. I'm not writing off 99l o think it could sneak attack once near the us.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:20 pm

GFS and GGEM brings back 99L
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:38 pm

Snow88 wrote:GFS and GGEM brings back 99L

Yep lol, fantasyland is annoying.  Both come close to the US on 12z GFS, 99l effecting FL and maybe EC but 12z shows a recurve after a short due east movement, honestly who knows at this point....we need developed storms first.  remember 99l was show cat 5 so just like 99L, 90L could be being overdone too but NHC certainly feels it has more chance in the 5 day to develop.  I think 99L may eventually become Hermaine once into the waters near FL.  I wouldn't be surprised to see a significant system develop right off SE coast as that is one of the hot spots thats been talked about by many.  The CMC FWIW would give us a good Cat 1 or 2 hurricane as it makes landfall barely and then cruises the EC sometimes over land sometimes over water. And from looks of this last frame at day 10 we would be in the worst quadrant.  But as I said its the CMC, it develops everything.




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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 1:42 pm

99L chances were dropped again, it will be beyond 5 days IMO if it develops.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fiona, located several hundred miles northeast of the Leeward
Islands.

99L:
1. A tropical wave located about 1100 miles east of the Lesser Antilles
is producing disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms.  The
proximity of this system to dry air is expected to inhibit
significant development during the next few days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to be near Hispaniola and
the southeastern Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

90L:
2. Cloudiness and thunderstorms located over the far eastern Atlantic
a few hundred miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands are
associated with a low pressure area and tropical wave. Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the next day or two while the system moves
westward and then northwestward over the eastern tropical Atlantic
Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

Looks like one underdone and one overdone hot dogs lol



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by algae888 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 2:59 pm

looks like the euro takes 99l to northern florida coast and the into gulf although weak probably a depression. we shall see.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by WOLVES1 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:21 pm

Sorry to be a bother but I'm always trying to learn. What are the numbers 90L, 99L?
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:27 pm

Those are the designations for th invests that are being watched for tropical sevelopment. Al I think euro now showing development and consistently in past runs getting stronger likely a ts per my sources at fl landfall. It's not a good thing this far out tgat now euro gfs and cmc all have it and we know euro always,weakest at 1st. Or it often is. Cmc being on steroids.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:36 pm

Looks like 99L is struggling to get going. One thing to note is when tropical waves are this large they can survive longer and move into favorable environments. So can't write this one off yet



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sun Aug 21, 2016 3:39 pm

I believe the models are having problems which tropical wave to key on for development which explains all this jumping around from run to run. Either way expect to see the tropics start to ramp up fairly shortly.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:06 am

There will be another tropical wave (invest) coming off the African coast in the next few days. With all these storms floating around we may get to see a very rare Fujiyama event should they all develop. Will make for some great tracking.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 7:58 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Looks like 99L is struggling to get going. One thing to note is when tropical waves are this large they can survive longer and move into favorable environments. So can't write this one off yet



I agree 100% Frank.  Forget the LR forecast on these Invests for now, because there are so many waves for the models to have to key in on.  If you look at current observations and the S/R modeling with 99L you will see a few key points that could def change the LR out look.  For now the global models, GFS and Euro alike are keying in on 90L and developing it into a beast of a fish storm, but like you said Frank 99L def needs to be watched.  

As of this morning here are a few key points that need to be watched that may cause further development of 99L towards Trop storm status.  Fist off like Frank said it is a very large wave with large circulation.  Because of this it can take time for energy to consolidate to the center of the Low Level Circulation/Center (LLC) which is needed for intensification. As of yesterday there was very little convection at all around the center of circulation.  This was because it was traveling through an area of pretty intense wind shear (30-40kts) so any upward motion was quickly sheared off as the air rose into the upper levels and into the high shear environment.  However as you can see by the current rainbow sat loop there is some healthy looking convection firing up in and around the LLC. Notice too that the convection is mostly on the southern half of the system. This is because the N and NE environment is still the areas of highest wind shear.




Now lets talk a little bit about the LLC, spin/vorticity at the surface, followed by the vorticity higher up.  As of yesterday, unfort I didn't save the picture, there were at least two centers of spin at the surface; however, as of this morning the LLC seems to be trying to close off into a single center point.  Here is the still image labeled along with the link to the loop:




https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-46.79,12.49,1377/loc=-48.818,13.685

Now look and see how the center of spin is at the same location at 1000mb as well:



Here is 850mb center.  Notice its center is south of the LLC and the 1000mb centr.  That said as of last night the 850mb center was even further south and further west that what you see in this image.  This may be an indication that the system is becoming more vertically stacked.  To understand why this is important picture a teenager with a hoola hoop spinning around her ankles, knees, thighs and torso.  Each hoola hoop represents the circulation center at the different levels of the atmosphere.  If the hoola hoops are all spinning around the girl with different rotations invivudually none of them can get moving very fast; however, as each hoola hoop starts coming into unisyn with the others the girl can get then get them all going faster and faster so long as they are moving around her body together instead of seperate.  This is the same concept when the spin in the different levels of the atmosphere beging stacking up over top of each other.  




Now take notice at the shear maps.  As you can see by this map only the NE periphery of 99L is still in a high shear environment(red lines), but it is moving into a mod-low lower shear environment(yellow and green lines) which is probably why the convection has fired back up again.  It also appears that thre is an anticyclone in the upper levels over top and to the west of 99L center which will act as an exhaust.  




These are all things that IMHO point toward further development over the next 24-48hrs.  "Weather" or not it reaches Top Depression  or storm status is yet to be determined but if it does strengthen the out come of the track would likely be affected.  Here is the latest intensification forecasts.  Notice at least half develop it into trop storm status within 36-72 hrs.  



For now the track will continue on a westward motion but eventually will begin to shift WNW, then NW.  Intensification and or better organization as 99L approaches the Lesser and greater Antilles is important because a track to the north of the Islands gives it a better chance to develop further vs a track into the Caribbean first then over the bigger islands as its track shifts NW would likely tear it up.  If we reach TD or TS before 60W longitude the northern half of the tracks would likely verify...IMHO of course.  However if no addition strengthening occurs then the Euro track into the Caribbean then NW over the islands is most likely.




I can almost guarantee given at least some of the reasoning listed above the NHC will increase 99L's probability of development today.

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Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
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March 10th = 4.8"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 8:43 am

Here is the NHC morning discussion re 99L:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Shower activity has increased a little over the past 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles. Dry air near this system is expected to slow
development during the next couple of days days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola
and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Dry air would be the likely cause if we see no additional strengthening today however, I'm not so sure. You can see the TPW loop(total precipitable water) is pretty strong in association with 99L.


My call is that the 20%/50% formation chance in the 2-5day given to 99L this morning increases over the next 24-36 hrs.




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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:21 am

sroc4 wrote:Here is the NHC morning discussion re 99L:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Shower activity has increased a little over the past 24 hours in
association with a tropical wave located about 850 miles east of
the Lesser Antilles.  Dry air near this system is expected to slow
development during the next couple of days days while the
disturbance moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.
Environmental conditions could become more conducive for development
late this week when the system is expected to move near Hispaniola
and the southeastern and central Bahamas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Dry air would be the likely cause if we see no additional strengthening today however, I'm not so sure.  You can see the TPW loop(total precipitable water) is pretty strong in association with 99L.  


My call is that the 20%/50% formation chance in the 2-5day given to 99L this morning increases over the next 24-36 hrs.  



sroc great analysis and I agree with you, here are so many systems out there I think the models are skipping around not being able to figure which to hone in on and hence not giving accurate direction in the LR. Other forums I am reading appear to love to speculate LR so I am going to ask about this ridging they keep talking about that may or may not keep 99L from going up the coast OTS or into FL and then the gulf. I assume we really have no idea where it would go at this time once it gets into the Bahamas but the fact that the Euro now develops a TS is making it more of something to watch. 90L is crazy, may be a cat 5!
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 9:55 am

Regarding the ridging Jman is bottom line is its too far out to truly speculate about any of that.  I personally am trying not to look beyond 120hrs esp for 99L because things can change rapidly.  Just for comparison here is the sat imagery from last night vs this am regarding convection:  




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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 10:16 am

Ya I noticed, wow could be a sneak attack on development who knows, these things have a mind of their own and many times models don't do well. NHC did up the 5 day to 50% from 40% last night. CMC of course is on drugs, but wouldn't it be crazy is x Fiona absorbed 99L reformed and ran LI like it showed lol.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Aug 22, 2016 12:39 pm

12z GFS wants nothing to do with 99L development. Just shows a disorganized mess of thunderstorms that hovers in the Bahamas. I'm surprised by this run since its looking much better looking today on satellite imagery.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:30 pm

Based on today’s MJO and 200 mb Velocity Potential forecast, it appears that we may have a very good increase in tropical activity during the next 5 – 10 days!!

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:34 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:12z GFS wants nothing to do with 99L development. Just shows a disorganized mess of thunderstorms that hovers in the Bahamas. I'm surprised by this run since its looking much better looking today on satellite imagery.

We are simply going to have to hurry up and wait on this one. GFS may be correct but im just not so sure. Looking at the current GEFS ens plots it looks like the 12z initialized the system at 1013mb and doesnt have it down to 1011mb 3 days; but the current data suggests there is a minimum pressure already at 1011mb:



Invest 99L
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 22, 2016:

Location: 15.4°N 48.9°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1011 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 80 NM

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WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 1:39 pm

Also here is the latest discussion on 99L as well as Fiona and 90L from "Storm" walsh. This guy always provides excellent Tropical discussion. He turned me on to many of the sites I use in my disco. He agrees with my write up from this morning. Again nothing imminent but bears watching for sure. Dont fall asleep by looking at the GFS soln.
Scroll down a little to find the 99L disco
https://stormw.wordpress.com/

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"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:53 pm

The12z Euro develops it and moves it across FL into gulf. Def don't put your money in the GFS IMO if Euro is show development.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 2:55 pm

Jesus H. from hrs 192-216 it goes from 994mb to 965mb!!! headed for the peninsula. Does it going into the GOM seem likely? But that's concerning that the Euro now shows a very strong hurricane.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:01 pm

Dayummm...headed back NE, this will cross no problem as a very strong hurricane what a cat 2 3? This could then possibly threaten EC too if run kept going, I guess would all depend on if any troughs or if the Bermuda high kept it pressed to the coastline but its 10 days out but wow 950mb on the freaking Euro.



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:06 pm

Closer up, yowzers and this the conservative Euro 10 days out....

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Mon Aug 22, 2016 3:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Closer up, yowzers and this the conservative Euro 10 days out....

I knew today's GFS was out to lunch. 99L keeps getting better organized this afternoon; would not surprise me to see it upgraded to TD status later on tonight/tomorrow morning. If this potential storm misses Hispanolia to the north, rapid intensification could occur with high SST's in place. Another important thing to keep in mind is what the EURO depicts is still 10 days away! Weather patterns can and will change in that length of time period. Anywhere from the gulf coast to new England should keep an eye on this potential hurricane.
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