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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:00 am

Landfall for pouch 25 in Carolinas as a cat 3 plus. Then starts a eastern turn. Too close. But still entertainment time frame. But that's a really bad senario and closest it's come to this area.

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:00 am

Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Gfs_z500a_atl_51

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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 1:03 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Gfs_z500a_atl_51
still who knows if that timing will be right or any of this being modeled is right. But dang unless models back off some this has had a lot of support to b the first major along the ec in a very long time. Go b a lot of wait and see but hopefully we do get quick development so tracking can b easier unlike 99l which has just been rediculous.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:47 am

Well since I'm up thpught I'd report on euro 99l 979mb hurricane into bend of fl at hr 120 as run after run has shown. Thats on low resolution so im guessing may b a cat 2? Nhc also upped 99l back to 40/60 and to b 92l to 0/50 so things look to get exciting over next 2 plus weeks.


2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_18
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 2:59 am

Holy smokes!

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_19
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:01 am

Wow! Close call up here! At the very leaset this run would batter the carolinas and give a heck of a coastal flooding up this way. Poor beaches. I am a bit weary of Euro since it did a bad job with this a week ago, but maybe its doing that bring it back thing.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_20
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:04 am

974 MB off just north of NC, wow the SST's are boiling! Its actually strengthening as its going NNE or NE. Still not a threat to the area in any way?
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:08 am

Wow almost 40/70 BM, 976mb way too close, is west go be a trend, and theres our monster to the south, two big hurricanes on the map at the same time.  I can't say this image doesnt tickle me a bit lol.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_21
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:11 am

And meanwhile not to far behind is our at 240 hrs 950mb cat 2 maybe 3 just north of the southern islands headed NW.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_22
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 3:13 am

Gets strong TS force gusts into cape cod and maybe as far west as RI.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Ecmwf_23
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Post by sroc4 Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:11 am

Like my coffee pot...the tropics they are a brewing.

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Post by sroc4 Sun Aug 28, 2016 6:12 am

Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Gfs_z500a_atl_51

What do you think Frank...If that neg just N of the GL is a little deeper it captures it and swings it back to the N to NW??

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WINTER 2012/2013 TOTALS 43.65"WINTER 2017/2018 TOTALS 62.85" WINTER 2022/2023 TOTALS 4.9"      
WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 8:15 am

Wow 06z gfs gets to b 92l down to 916 mb as it heads for se and slams into fl Georgia border. That's a very unlikely spot so not totally buying it stays that far south but it's likely a car 4 or 5 at truncation. This could get scary fast in another week or so for entire east coast. Even we see ts storm like conditions as a storm like thst not go weaken that fast on that run. Other thing to note is the time frame is not backing down. 8am they upped it to 60 percent in 5 day nhc really likes this wave every advisory gets higher since yesterday. They also upped 91l to medium. Yes sroc but I hope ur coffee tastes bit better than what the tropics can stir up from the ocean lol.
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Post by amugs Sun Aug 28, 2016 8:41 am

For those of you keeping track on the last HCcane to effect Florida
http://www.tickcounter.com/countup/1130151600000/us-eastern/ydhms/FFFFFF3B5998000000FF0000/Last_Florida_Major_Hurricane_Landfall?utm_source=widget&utm_medium=CountUp&utm_campaign=widget

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Post by Frank_Wx Sun Aug 28, 2016 9:14 am

sroc4 wrote:
Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Gfs_z500a_atl_51

What do you think Frank...If that neg just N of the GL is a little deeper it captures it and swings it back to the N to NW??

Possibly. With Sandy there was another piece of vorticity which phased with the storm and freakishly strengthened it more. The trough itself was very strong and negatively tilted. If the "Sandy" trough was positively tilted or neutral with NO HP to the northeast, it likely would have headed OTS.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Gfs_namer_054_500_vort_ht

Disclaimer: I'm not saying another Sandy is possible on September 10th, I'm just comparing the setups. T

We'll have to see if future model runs try to capture this thing, or does the weakness in the trough 99L provide be enough? Also have to see if the HP slides east instead of being directly overtop.

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Post by Snow88 Sun Aug 28, 2016 9:41 am

Getting busy
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 11qla4l
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Post by aiannone Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:07 am

Curious to see the actual outcome of 99L as it enters the very warm gulf, but aside from that one ingredient, there is a modest amount of shear in place and with the system being so disorganized as it is, I am not so sure it's going to have enough time to develop before it hits land.

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Post by Joe Snow Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:27 am

Breaking

Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression 8........


Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent

That was fast
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:37 am

Well that was fast lol take that 99l. Lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 10:40 am

Snow88 wrote:Getting busy
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 11qla4l
yeah the cucumber is the one Franks banner is about. That looks to be a exciting one to track if it gets as strong as models show lr. Also amazing if it gets that far west.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:26 am

00z euro ensembles are all over the place but the control exact same location as 12z yesterday. its 960mb, but i like look of this image better.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 16 Eps_qp10
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Post by jake732 Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:32 am

whats the name of the storm we are watching??
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Post by skinsfan1177 Sun Aug 28, 2016 11:43 am

I'm thinking separate threads in near future. We have 99L, 91L, and pouch L. I think many are getting confused lol
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:05 pm

skins Ia agree and suggested it a few days ago with no response, I wouldn't be surprised if we see even more pop up, who knows could be tracking 3+ systems. The one I posted is of pouch 25 if and when it becomes 92L, name to be determined because TD 8 or 99L could be Hermaine or Ian. Yeah I totally see how this is confusing to those that aren't full into the tropics.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:06 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm thinking separate threads in near future. We have 99L, 91L, and pouch L. I think many are getting confused lol

91L is now TD 8 and poised to be a tropical storm headed to carolinas by Tuesday, will likely be named. And its pouch 25, they do not have a L. It will soon be 92L.
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Post by Snow88 Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:41 pm

GFS tries to bring it up the coast.
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Post by jmanley32 Sun Aug 28, 2016 12:44 pm

Notice 99l also coming up coast as weak 1010 lp over us. Pouch 25 kills pr divides it in half. Tweets already flying about concerns for this one the week frank notate in scroll. Media hype I'm sure will start as soon as it's named which I wouldn't b surprised if by end of week. Already looks good and is over africa.
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