2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Landfall for pouch 25 in Carolinas as a cat 3 plus. Then starts a eastern turn. Too close. But still entertainment time frame. But that's a really bad senario and closest it's come to this area.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast
Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
still who knows if that timing will be right or any of this being modeled is right. But dang unless models back off some this has had a lot of support to b the first major along the ec in a very long time. Go b a lot of wait and see but hopefully we do get quick development so tracking can b easier unlike 99l which has just been rediculous.Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Well since I'm up thpught I'd report on euro 99l 979mb hurricane into bend of fl at hr 120 as run after run has shown. Thats on low resolution so im guessing may b a cat 2? Nhc also upped 99l back to 40/60 and to b 92l to 0/50 so things look to get exciting over next 2 plus weeks.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Holy smokes!
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Wow! Close call up here! At the very leaset this run would batter the carolinas and give a heck of a coastal flooding up this way. Poor beaches. I am a bit weary of Euro since it did a bad job with this a week ago, but maybe its doing that bring it back thing.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
974 MB off just north of NC, wow the SST's are boiling! Its actually strengthening as its going NNE or NE. Still not a threat to the area in any way?
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Wow almost 40/70 BM, 976mb way too close, is west go be a trend, and theres our monster to the south, two big hurricanes on the map at the same time. Â I can't say this image doesnt tickle me a bit lol.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
And meanwhile not to far behind is our at 240 hrs 950mb cat 2 maybe 3 just north of the southern islands headed NW.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Gets strong TS force gusts into cape cod and maybe as far west as RI.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Like my coffee pot...the tropics they are a brewing.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast
What do you think Frank...If that neg just N of the GL is a little deeper it captures it and swings it back to the N to NW??
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WINTER 2013/2014 TOTALS 64.85"WINTER 2018/2019 TOTALS 14.25" WINTER 2023/2024 TOTALS 13.1"
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Wow 06z gfs gets to b 92l down to 916 mb as it heads for se and slams into fl Georgia border. That's a very unlikely spot so not totally buying it stays that far south but it's likely a car 4 or 5 at truncation. This could get scary fast in another week or so for entire east coast. Even we see ts storm like conditions as a storm like thst not go weaken that fast on that run. Other thing to note is the time frame is not backing down. 8am they upped it to 60 percent in 5 day nhc really likes this wave every advisory gets higher since yesterday. They also upped 91l to medium. Yes sroc but I hope ur coffee tastes bit better than what the tropics can stir up from the ocean lol.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
For those of you keeping track on the last HCcane to effect Florida
http://www.tickcounter.com/countup/1130151600000/us-eastern/ydhms/FFFFFF3B5998000000FF0000/Last_Florida_Major_Hurricane_Landfall?utm_source=widget&utm_medium=CountUp&utm_campaign=widget
http://www.tickcounter.com/countup/1130151600000/us-eastern/ydhms/FFFFFF3B5998000000FF0000/Last_Florida_Major_Hurricane_Landfall?utm_source=widget&utm_medium=CountUp&utm_campaign=widget
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amugs- Advanced Forecaster - Mod
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
sroc4 wrote:Frank_Wx wrote:Another ridge forms in the Midwest and slides east which prevents the Hurricane from coming all the way up the coast
What do you think Frank...If that neg just N of the GL is a little deeper it captures it and swings it back to the N to NW??
Possibly. With Sandy there was another piece of vorticity which phased with the storm and freakishly strengthened it more. The trough itself was very strong and negatively tilted. If the "Sandy" trough was positively tilted or neutral with NO HP to the northeast, it likely would have headed OTS.
Disclaimer: I'm not saying another Sandy is possible on September 10th, I'm just comparing the setups. T
We'll have to see if future model runs try to capture this thing, or does the weakness in the trough 99L provide be enough? Also have to see if the HP slides east instead of being directly overtop.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Getting busy
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Curious to see the actual outcome of 99L as it enters the very warm gulf, but aside from that one ingredient, there is a modest amount of shear in place and with the system being so disorganized as it is, I am not so sure it's going to have enough time to develop before it hits land.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Breaking
Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression 8........
Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent
That was fast
Invest 91L is now Tropical Depression 8........
Updated: Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure
west-southwest of Bermuda has become a tropical depression, and
advisories on Tropical Depression Eight will be initiated at 11 AM
EDT.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent
That was fast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Well that was fast lol take that 99l. Lol
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
yeah the cucumber is the one Franks banner is about. That looks to be a exciting one to track if it gets as strong as models show lr. Also amazing if it gets that far west.Snow88 wrote:Getting busy
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
00z euro ensembles are all over the place but the control exact same location as 12z yesterday. its 960mb, but i like look of this image better.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
I'm thinking separate threads in near future. We have 99L, 91L, and pouch L. I think many are getting confused lol
skinsfan1177- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
skins Ia agree and suggested it a few days ago with no response, I wouldn't be surprised if we see even more pop up, who knows could be tracking 3+ systems. The one I posted is of pouch 25 if and when it becomes 92L, name to be determined because TD 8 or 99L could be Hermaine or Ian. Yeah I totally see how this is confusing to those that aren't full into the tropics.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
skinsfan1177 wrote:I'm thinking separate threads in near future. We have 99L, 91L, and pouch L. I think many are getting confused lol
91L is now TD 8 and poised to be a tropical storm headed to carolinas by Tuesday, will likely be named. And its pouch 25, they do not have a L. It will soon be 92L.
jmanley32- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
GFS tries to bring it up the coast.
Snow88- Senior Enthusiast
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions
Notice 99l also coming up coast as weak 1010 lp over us. Pouch 25 kills pr divides it in half. Tweets already flying about concerns for this one the week frank notate in scroll. Media hype I'm sure will start as soon as it's named which I wouldn't b surprised if by end of week. Already looks good and is over africa.
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