2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Tue Aug 02, 2016 7:36 pm

i hope this goes out to sea

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:17 pm

A new area to watch very close to home (meaning the states), low chance but NHC watching it and that's a conducive area for development. Currently stationary. We are up to E, if this forms F, when was the last time it was the beginning of August and we were at F? Math I will leave that stat to you, or anyone else I am curious. At this point I think we were have a VERY active season, as we are not even into the busy season yet. GWO is predicting 2-4 hurricane landfalls and a high chance of the US getting a major hurricane landfall. I know they are kinda out there but they did get Sandy I believe years ahead of time.



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:18 pm

Interesting article just for the statistics, they are pretty wild. As for the sensationalism scare tactic piece that's just silly. As said its just luck mainly.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 05, 2016 1:20 pm

frank 638 wrote:i hope this goes out to sea

Not sure what you are referring to but Earl is way down by Belize and losing steam no threat to the US.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by frank 638 on Fri Aug 05, 2016 4:02 pm

I don't know why I listen to my co workers they told me the storm was going east I feel like idiot lol

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Aug 06, 2016 9:26 pm

Jman great article, thanks for sharing. We all know that we are overdue in the meteorological world for a major hcane to hit the coastline. Sandy wasn't major even though for us she seemed like it. Give this area a Cat 3 and there won't be traces of shore house at the ground zero area.
No doubt that we have amnesia in the country and if you have never been through a hurricanes wrath you have no idea.
Active season incoming.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Aug 06, 2016 10:57 pm

From Earl on Thursday in Playa Del Carmen Mexico - tstorm squall pretty cool


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Sun Aug 07, 2016 8:29 am

Looked like you were getting some outer bands.. glad you and the fam are safe!

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Sun Aug 07, 2016 9:25 pm

I heard there were some landslides in eastern Mexico. 36 people dead. Very sad.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Wed Aug 10, 2016 1:20 pm

Looks like Walker Cell suppressing the Trop Cyclone activity in teh atlantic as per Eric Blake on twitter



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:38 pm

NHC says Hcane season still on track



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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Thu Aug 11, 2016 9:50 pm


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Aug 13, 2016 10:34 am

Trough in the West/Midwest and BH in the Central Atlantic leaning west = EC Danger

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sat Aug 13, 2016 11:02 pm

Euro saying this about the MDR in the tropics MDR means Main Development Region

Ventrice from WSI says a Kevin Wave is going to hamper development until later August.



Carribean amd GOM are the areas I would favor over the MDR at this point.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Sun Aug 14, 2016 9:50 pm

Warm Hotlantic from GOM to Carribean to the Atlantic tropical


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by algae888 on Mon Aug 15, 2016 8:48 am

fantasy land gfs...
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Aug 15, 2016 11:37 am

algae888 wrote:fantasy land gfs...
jeeze...
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Mon Aug 15, 2016 1:50 pm

Let's hope it stays fantasy, I'm down the shore.....

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Mon Aug 15, 2016 5:11 pm

algae888 wrote:fantasy land gfs...


please keep it fantasy...we will be in Orlando next week... Shocked
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Tue Aug 16, 2016 2:37 pm

Looks like the models lost the storm
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Tue Aug 16, 2016 3:23 pm

Snow88 wrote:Looks like the models lost the storm

They are lost - NHC says get ready cause we are going to track some thing - plus there are multiple LP and low pressure over allon Northern Africa, times are going to start heating up in teh tropics. Remember that the MDR (Major Development Region) is so-so for trop cyclones forming so if the t-stroms make it to caribbean region then we better keep an cyclops out peeps. Look at how warm our water are - YIKES!!







Water Vapor loop - good moisture for this to make it


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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Wed Aug 17, 2016 12:38 pm

The waters along the east coast are boiling. Big trouble if a tropical system comes along.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:02 pm

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:04 pm

We have Fiona, doesn't look to effect US at all Fish storm.  Yeah waters along coast are crazy warm, I wonder how long they will stay that way and if anything will get towards the coast, so far although we are now up to F it has been fairly uneventful and none of those predicted majors have happened yet.  Next few weeks and especailly Sept. into October I think will be interesting and potentially problematic for the east coast.  BTW check off topic threat to see what I just went through since last Friday.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:15 pm

Brought the doom for fantasy land back at 00z, This is from the wave that NHC just started watching.....

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