NJ Strong Weather Forum


Join the forum, it's quick and easy

NJ Strong Weather Forum
NJ Strong Weather Forum
Would you like to react to this message? Create an account in a few clicks or log in to continue.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

+23
mwilli5783
jake732
RJB8525
rb924119
aiannone
NjWeatherGuy
Math23x7
WOLVES1
track17
Joe Snow
Snow88
algae888
frank 638
weatherwatchermom
nutleyblizzard
Radz
Dunnzoo
skinsfan1177
Frank_Wx
jmanley32
amugs
sroc4
Quietace
27 posters

Page 29 of 33 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33  Next

Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:41 pm

amugs wrote:Difference is what I have showed in my post yesterday that SIR SROC (love that medieval style name) pointed to. Euro 500mb pattern - the trough in the west/midwest is deep and HP raised height sare over SE CAN - block the storm from barreling OTS - 1034 HP is a stout ridge.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 CtTV8bbWIAENS5t

Lots of time and we must learn that they depicted such for Hermine and it got 75 more east than modelled
 If one wants to see a devastating hit by a major hurricane along the east coast, you need to see a slower moving storm like the EURO depicts. In doing so it misses the first trough and would of surely shown a capture/phase with the second deep trough approaching if the model run would of continued. On the other hand, you have a faster moving storm on the GFS thus an OTS solution. Its all about timing and things should become much clearer by this weekend.

nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Join date : 2014-01-30

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:42 pm

I do not want to bash any forums as I think that's against rules too so I take back my comment. Just people saying there are def trends and this is def OTS etc. I know it won't necessarily take a Sandy track but there are also other ways this could have a really bad hit on us if things come together right, do not need a sandy track to get a really bad hurricane. I hear ya skins and I wish hurricanes did not fascinate me so much but the fact is I am amazed by what they can do unfortunately it causes a lot of sadness destruction and possible loss of life. Living inland I guess it does not show me the real problems that those on the shore suffer. So while I do not wish harm on anyone I am kinda crazy in that I would like to see a massive hurricane once in my life. Sandy was not really a hurricane however she certainly packed a punch storm surge wise and did have decent winds, this could pack a much higher wind impact if intensity is correct, but who knows at this pt.

jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Join date : 2013-12-12

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:44 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
amugs wrote:Difference is what I have showed in my post yesterday that SIR SROC (love that medieval style name) pointed to. Euro 500mb pattern - the trough in the west/midwest is deep and HP raised height sare over SE CAN - block the storm from barreling OTS - 1034 HP is a stout ridge.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 CtTV8bbWIAENS5t

Lots of time and we must learn that they depicted such for Hermine and it got 75 more east than modelled
 If one wants to see a devastating hit by a major hurricane along the east coast, you need to see a slower moving storm like the EURO depicts. In doing so it misses the first trough and would of surely shown a capture/phase with the second deep trough approaching if the model run would of continued. On the other hand, you have a faster moving storm on the GFS thus an OTS solution. Its all about timing and things should become much clearer by this weekend.
I see yes it would def get picked up by the looks of that. The GFS vs. Euro, gee where have we seen that b4....
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:46 pm

Al the 12z GFS actually heads OTS then retrogrades back towards the cape then back OTS, wild run there, I do not buy any of it past the carribbean. I think I am trusting somewhat in the euro on this one, not same but some things similar to sandy and the euro was near spot on. Lets see who wins out. CMC also not playing on EC threat as I stated b4.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:49 pm

algae888 wrote:Scott yes i expect this to slow down as the pattern is becoming very amplified over the next 7-10 days. Euro is much slower than gfs with cmc in between. Jman euro looks like there could be a capture as trough over central us goes neg. However to have a sandy like outcome many many things have to time out just right. Thats why sandy is a 1 in a 100 year storm. Still possible but odds are probably less than 10%. Still a long ways to go and all outcomes still on the table. Lets just hope matthew stays weak or is ots. Very Happy

Don't doubt my boy Al, like Bill

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 3:51 pm

amugs wrote:
algae888 wrote:Scott yes i expect this to slow down as the pattern is becoming very amplified over the next 7-10 days. Euro is much slower than gfs with cmc in between. Jman euro looks like there could be a capture as trough over central us goes neg. However to have a sandy like outcome many many things have to time out just right. Thats why sandy is a 1 in a 100 year storm. Still possible but odds are probably less than 10%. Still a long ways to go and all outcomes still on the table. Lets just hope matthew stays weak or is ots. Very Happy

Don't doubt my boy Al, like Bill

Like bill? It may not be a coincidence mugs son name is Matthew, mugs if this happens its fully your families responsibility to clean up the aftermath or your son as I am sure he has to for his room, jk.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:14 pm

After reviewing today's 12z guidance, my interest level is increasing and we may have to begin taking this seriously by the end of this week. Check out 500mb height anonalies on the EURO. The trough in the central US is already negatively tilted as Hurricane Matthew approaches Florida. There is a semblance of a 50/50 block with a stout ridge over the Northeast. We'll see where things stand in a couple of days, but even individual ensemble members show some threatening solutions.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png.f5c104cf15a74010c2c6de0ca4aae73e


_________________
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________

CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
Frank_Wx
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 21301
Reputation : 328
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 31
Location : Jersey City, NJ

http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:31 pm

Ensemble 51 of euro has wcs 948mb cane due north into li....
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:31 pm

MANY ENSEMBLES are concerning for US landfall & EC

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 CtT1uObUMAA8yAf


Last edited by amugs on Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:32 pm

Frank_Wx wrote:After reviewing today's 12z guidance,  my interest level is increasing and we may have to begin taking this seriously by the end of this week. Check out 500mb height anonalies on the EURO. The trough in the central US is already negatively tilted as Hurricane Matthew approaches Florida. There is a semblance of a 50/50 block with a stout ridge over the Northeast. We'll see where things stand in a couple of days, but even individual ensemble members show some threatening solutions.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png.f5c104cf15a74010c2c6de0ca4aae73e

frank so ate u thinking euro is go b the model of best guess here?
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 5:37 pm

amugs wrote:MANY ENSEMBLES are concerning for US landfall & EC

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 CtT1uObUMAA8yAf
red is damn intense. Most into gulf I dunno if I buy thst. I'm thinking we see ensembles consolidate more east from gom. Just a hunch.



Last edited by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:24 pm; edited 2 times in total
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:38 pm

18z gfs initially looks ots but it appears it might b turning gor a tetrograde. The hp over it is strong.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:40 pm

18z gfs markedly more to the west by at least several hundred miles. Not gr8 at guessing miles. Can't post am mobile. Is it really plausible to have a major go due north all the way up to 40n! Sget suggest that.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:50 pm

GFS retrogrades to the cape after crushing Bermuda

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Gfs_z500a_namer_44

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:51 pm

Ok I can't really a recurve hybrid as big as sandy into Maine that's incredible.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by devsman Mon Sep 26, 2016 6:59 pm

Is that a secondary low at 982 MB's that forms to the west of the hurricane and is due south of LI?
devsman
devsman
Pro Enthusiast
Pro Enthusiast

Posts : 424
Reputation : 4
Join date : 2014-01-01
Age : 48
Location : merrick, ny (south shore of Long Island)

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:04 pm

That's one crazy senario I think we see this south but sandy solutions are surfacing. Let's see ensembles.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 7:22 pm

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 57e9a5e720463.thumb.png.5a4f2f05312f66ab2ab68a4bf5eb4131

This is a crazy scenerio

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
amugs
amugs
Advanced Forecaster - Mod
Advanced Forecaster - Mod

Posts : 15088
Reputation : 213
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 54
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:13 pm

All EC or offshore ensembles.....


2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Gfs-em12
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:15 pm

Models are starting to trend with the high to the north pressing down in a more favorable position which is slowing down Mathew  enough till the second trough catches up and captures it. The 12z EURO clearly showed it even though the run did not go out far enough. The GFS showed it, though it retrograded too late for a direct impact on us. The big question is this a ominous trend or just one of many potential scenario model runs to come? At the very least this will most definitely wake up this forum with all the model tracking that will be going on.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:25 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
amugs wrote:MANY ENSEMBLES are concerning for US landfall & EC

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 CtT1uObUMAA8yAf
red is damn intense. Most into gulf I dunno if I buy thst. I'm thinking we see ensembles consolidate more east from gom. Just a hunch.


The image above was the 00z, here is the 12z with even more EC hits right into the area. Note all red even up to the area, very strong. Many into gulf but more moved the the EC.

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Mtxq4h10
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:26 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:Models are starting to trend with the high to the north pressing down in a more favorable position which is slowing down Mathew  enough till the second trough catches up and captures it. The 12z EURO clearly showed it even though the run did not go out far enough. The GFS showed it, though it retrograded too late for a direct impact on us. The big question is this a ominous trend or just one of many potential scenario model runs to come? At the very least this will most definitely wake up this forum with all the model tracking that will be going on.

The ensembles go far enough out and let me tell you some of the hits on the area are unimaginable...
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:39 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Models are starting to trend with the high to the north pressing down in a more favorable position which is slowing down Mathew  enough till the second trough catches up and captures it. The 12z EURO clearly showed it even though the run did not go out far enough. The GFS showed it, though it retrograded too late for a direct impact on us. The big question is this a ominous trend or just one of many potential scenario model runs to come? At the very least this will most definitely wake up this forum with all the model tracking that will be going on.

The ensembles go far enough out and let me tell you some of the hits on the area are unimaginable...
Yes they are. The one thing we need to remember is this potential is still at least ten days away. A lot can change in that time. On the other hand models sometimes sniff out the big ticket storms from far out in time. Sandy and the blizzard of 96 comes to mind.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by skinsfan1177 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:41 pm

Like Frank said let's see by week ends how this looks. I got one will just track and see because models have been awful
skinsfan1177
skinsfan1177
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 4485
Reputation : 35
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 46
Location : Point Pleasant Boro

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:45 pm

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:
nutleyblizzard wrote:Models are starting to trend with the high to the north pressing down in a more favorable position which is slowing down Mathew  enough till the second trough catches up and captures it. The 12z EURO clearly showed it even though the run did not go out far enough. The GFS showed it, though it retrograded too late for a direct impact on us. The big question is this a ominous trend or just one of many potential scenario model runs to come? At the very least this will most definitely wake up this forum with all the model tracking that will be going on.

The ensembles go far enough out and let me tell you some of the hits on the area are unimaginable...
Yes they are. The one thing we need to remember is this potential is still at least ten days away. A lot can change in that time. On the other hand models sometimes sniff out the big ticket storms from far out in time. Sandy and the blizzard of 96 comes to mind.

Oh I know, I understand those ensembles are 10+ days out, earliest one is about 8 days out. Ensenble e2 has a 938mb hurricane (cat 3/4?) into NYC around Franks banner time frame, so does e51, many others traverse the coast some go in GOM, which even those much further out give us remnants. I have a bad feeling that this is being felt out early and we may see more consolidation on the EC, totally guessing at this pt. but this one no matter what is gonna be huge, size and likely wind field. It will probably be a TS in the next few days, intensity models have it as soon as 24 hrs.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Like Frank said let's see by week ends how this looks. I got one will just track and see because models have been awful

True, models may not be any help in such a complicated system and upper level pattern.
jmanley32
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 20490
Reputation : 108
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 42
Location : Yonkers, NY

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Like Frank said let's see by week ends how this looks. I got one will just track and see because models have been awful

True, models may not be any help in such a complicated system and upper level pattern.
Hurricane hunters will be flying out tomorrow which in turn will ingest updated info into the models such as upper air patterns in and around the system.
nutleyblizzard
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast
Senior Enthusiast

Posts : 1951
Reputation : 41
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 57
Location : Nutley, new jersey

Back to top Go down

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 29 Empty Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 29 of 33 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33  Next

Back to top


 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum