2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Page 30 of 33 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 29, 30, 31, 32, 33  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:42 pm

that is one heck of a sharp turn not one heads into gulf. One thing is we have very strong consensus up to haiti. I fear for them.

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:09 pm

The hcane hunters will give us the trop cyclone info but the 500mb set up is one that we have tobwatxh, trough digs into the heartland and stout HP not the 1024 one that Hermine bulldozed basically before it got a grip and slid east and stopped it along with the digging trough late to the party in WV. 
IF what is being porogged by the models are split say then we have a a real concern. If we have the Euro set up which seems to be much better at the big dogs as Nuts pointed out in an earlier post than this board will explode.

_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8147
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:12 pm

Scary runs brlow, Jesus destructive panels 


_________________
Mugs 
AKA:King: Snow Weenie
Self Proclaimed
WINTER 2014-15 : 55.12" +.02 for 6 coatings (avg. 35")
WINTER 2015-16 Total - 29.8" (Avg 35")
WINTER 2016-17 : 39.5" so far
avatar
amugs
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 8147
Join date : 2013-01-07
Age : 47
Location : Hillsdale,NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:17 pm

mugs if you look back at the euro ensemble plot of all LP I updated the 12z Euro you posted the 00z, note how many more euro ensembles around now up the coast and do hit the area and at a very strong intensity. Yes its still split but could be the start of a trend. BTW the 18z GFS gusts in maine are 105kts at landfall!  Yikes if this gets captured just a bit sooner, much stronger than Sandy wind wise. Only one run though of course.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:37 pm

GFS rolling, lets see if it trends in any particular direction or seems to continue to struggle with the setup such as that strong double barrel system depicted at 18z needless to say unlikely to verify but shows its struggling with the setup.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4023
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:37 am

Good god a cat 5 headed for the area, holy crap...

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:38 am

Unfortunently this run is more realistic, hard to believe cat 4/5 but still yikes
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:40 am

WOW Sandy size

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:43 am

WOW, just one run but 930mb scary unimaginable if this is anymore west cape cod is done for if this verified, its close enough to wreak havok due to sheer size.



avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:49 am

Wow, does this catch anyones attention? on that note the CMC is also well west. Everything is west now. Let see if this continues or stays.



avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:50 am

CMC makes landfall in NC then east and disipates quick. West moves seem to be coming together, still way out but moved up a bit in time too. GFS at closest pass is late next wed night.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by SoulSingMG on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:Good god a cat 5 headed for the area, holy crap...


Ominous to say the least. It's tough to put stock in any models however until we have an actual tropical cyclone.
avatar
SoulSingMG
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1931
Join date : 2013-12-11
Location : Port Chester, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:04 am

True enough just do not see runs like this often thought I'd post it. Also out of Fantasyland but still 8 9 days away. As frank said by weekend we can start take this to real concern. It's already unerring to a degree.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:04 am

CMC has odd evolution of tropical dynamics and handling of phased vorts and systems at play. While it may have a correct idea in a more western inital track as it matches other guidance ATM evolution of the storm afterward (cutting off near Hatteras, stalling and dissipating heading due east) doesnt make much sense. A western track would seem to cause a capture and northwest movement in this case, not a weak stall and then eastward movement.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4023
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:06 am

Nj whatcha think bout thst doozy of gfs run oy.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:14 am

I think we see td after recon tomorrow. I think it may already b it's impressive looking.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:17 am

Its closer overall than the 18z run but doesnt hook in as much. To me the GFS looks like its struggling with the setup, the ULL beforehand is a contributing factor the GFS is probably handling differently and I dont expect consistency until its out of the way. Like I said its a complex setup and a long week ahead.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4023
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:20 am

0z EURO holds serve, 0z NAVGEM is just mere miles off the eastern Florida coast with a 960mb hurricane tucked in tighter than the CMC when the run cuts off at hr 180.
avatar
NjWeatherGuy
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4023
Join date : 2013-01-06
Location : Belle Mead, NJ

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by algae888 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:33 am

euro did not hold serve. there are huge changes with this system. here is 500 mb

12z

00z
trough/ridge is significantly weaker.
12 z if taken out further storm has no chance to enter gulf. 00z most likely track is gulf into western fla and up the coast over land. storm probably doesn't affect us coast until sometime next weekend. all options still on the table.
avatar
algae888
Advanced Forecaster
Advanced Forecaster

Posts : 4206
Join date : 2013-02-05
Age : 55
Location : mt. vernon, new york

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:45 am

Don't have time to post but yikes 06z gfs!

avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by sroc4 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:54 am

Models still struggling with differences inside 72hrs let alone beyond. There will be three key phases to the outcome. Write up in progress.

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
Dec 11th = coating
Dec 17th = 4.2
Jan 5th-6th = 3"
Jan 7th = 10.4"

Jan 14th = 1.75"
Jan 31st = 2.5"
Feb 9th = 12"
March 10th = 4.8"
March 14th = 3.5"
avatar
sroc4
Admin
Admin

Posts : 4550
Join date : 2013-01-07
Location : Wading River, LI

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:01 am


6Z GFS shows a worse case scenario. God help us if this were to happen.
avatar
nutleyblizzard
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 1044
Join date : 2014-01-30
Age : 51
Location : Nutley, new jersey

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Frank_Wx on Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:12 am

What we know:

There will be a Hurricane to track.

What we don't know:

Everything.


_________________
Snow Accumulation Archive
2013-2014: 62.1"
2014-2015: 56.0"
2015-2016: 34.0"
2016-2017: 19.0"

________________________________________________________________________________________________________
CLICK HERE to view NJ Strong Snowstorm Classifications
avatar
Frank_Wx
Godzilla Seeker
Godzilla Seeker

Posts : 16848
Join date : 2013-01-05
Age : 25
Location : Cranford, NJ

View user profile http://njstrongweather.blogspot.com/

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by rb924119 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:39 am

LMAO Frank!!!

I'm not getting hyped for a couple of reasons. First, and I think Scott mentioned this a couple of days ago: The trend all Summer has been for all modeling to develop these systems in the open Atlantic or Carribean and then take them on a typical recurve course of some degree. However, the only storms that we have seen develop in these areas have been storms that came off of Africa north of about 13N (roughly, I'm going off memory). Once they developed they made a B-line to try to go visit Santa. Every other system we have seen this summer has been plagued by unfavorable conditions that did not abate, even though they were forecasted to, until the storms were very much closer to the mainland US. So far, that trend seems to be holding true with this system; although large, there is no organized center. As it continues at this latitude, it will have to start fighting off even worse conditions with climatologically desert-like air being downsloped and advected into it once it nears the northern coast of South America, which again argues for late development.

The second reason that I'm not hyped yet is because look at our modeling; up until about four days ago this cutoff for the end of the week was supposed to be embedded in a transient flow and blow through here in a day. Now it's going to completely cut off and meander for almost four days, which is something that wasn't seen. Hermine's situation was also something that was supposed to be cut and dry but again we had a cut off appear in the modeling just days before it was to be up here and heading out to sea. My point is, with the way this year has been, I would not be surprised to see this tropical system be over-modeled, again, and watch it make it all the way into the interior Carribean/Central American coastline before finally getting a chance to pop , which would limit our sensible impacts to enhanced rains along a front or eliminate them altogether. However, if it does develop, I would not be surprised to see the central trough that is currently looking to try to capture this system end up trough-splitting and have the cutoff somewhere in the southwestern or centrism US as the northern piece races away to the east and only impacts areas north of the Ohio River Valley. Not saying these runs are concerning, but in looking at the season's trends, those are my thoughts.

rb924119
Meteorologist
Meteorologist

Posts : 3237
Join date : 2013-02-06
Age : 25
Location : Greentown, Pa/Fishkill, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:04 am

Funny frank but it really is true. Like u said by weeks end hoping we know more. Rb there's always that one that can surprise. Nhc actually said it could b or already has developed. I also read that it should be able to fight off shear etc due to its size. Ur the expert though so.I respect ur anslysis. All we can do is continge to monitor. Last 2 runs were very bad on gfs.
avatar
jmanley32
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist
Senior Enthusiast & Loyalist

Posts : 12312
Join date : 2013-12-12
Age : 36
Location : Yonkers, NY

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 30 of 33 Previous  1 ... 16 ... 29, 30, 31, 32, 33  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum