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2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:47 pm

skinsfan1177 wrote:Like Frank said let's see by week ends how this looks. I got one will just track and see because models have been awful

True, models may not be any help in such a complicated system and upper level pattern.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:21 pm

jmanley32 wrote:
skinsfan1177 wrote:Like Frank said let's see by week ends how this looks. I got one will just track and see because models have been awful

True, models may not be any help in such a complicated system and upper level pattern.
Hurricane hunters will be flying out tomorrow which in turn will ingest updated info into the models such as upper air patterns in and around the system.

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:42 pm

that is one heck of a sharp turn not one heads into gulf. One thing is we have very strong consensus up to haiti. I fear for them.

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:09 pm

The hcane hunters will give us the trop cyclone info but the 500mb set up is one that we have tobwatxh, trough digs into the heartland and stout HP not the 1024 one that Hermine bulldozed basically before it got a grip and slid east and stopped it along with the digging trough late to the party in WV. 
IF what is being porogged by the models are split say then we have a a real concern. If we have the Euro set up which seems to be much better at the big dogs as Nuts pointed out in an earlier post than this board will explode.

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Post by amugs Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:12 pm

Scary runs brlow, Jesus destructive panels 

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 30 F264.gif.71eda17137eff3d4a0ada46c48f1a086

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Post by jmanley32 Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:17 pm

mugs if you look back at the euro ensemble plot of all LP I updated the 12z Euro you posted the 00z, note how many more euro ensembles around now up the coast and do hit the area and at a very strong intensity. Yes its still split but could be the start of a trend. BTW the 18z GFS gusts in maine are 105kts at landfall!  Yikes if this gets captured just a bit sooner, much stronger than Sandy wind wise. Only one run though of course.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:37 pm

GFS rolling, lets see if it trends in any particular direction or seems to continue to struggle with the setup such as that strong double barrel system depicted at 18z needless to say unlikely to verify but shows its struggling with the setup.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:37 am

Good god a cat 5 headed for the area, holy crap...

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:38 am

Unfortunently this run is more realistic, hard to believe cat 4/5 but still yikes
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:40 am

WOW Sandy size

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:43 am

WOW, just one run but 930mb scary unimaginable if this is anymore west cape cod is done for if this verified, its close enough to wreak havok due to sheer size.


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:49 am

Wow, does this catch anyones attention? on that note the CMC is also well west. Everything is west now. Let see if this continues or stays.


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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:50 am

CMC makes landfall in NC then east and disipates quick. West moves seem to be coming together, still way out but moved up a bit in time too. GFS at closest pass is late next wed night.
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Post by SoulSingMG Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:01 am

jmanley32 wrote:Good god a cat 5 headed for the area, holy crap...

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 30 Holy_c11

Ominous to say the least. It's tough to put stock in any models however until we have an actual tropical cyclone.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:04 am

True enough just do not see runs like this often thought I'd post it. Also out of Fantasyland but still 8 9 days away. As frank said by weekend we can start take this to real concern. It's already unerring to a degree.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:04 am

CMC has odd evolution of tropical dynamics and handling of phased vorts and systems at play. While it may have a correct idea in a more western inital track as it matches other guidance ATM evolution of the storm afterward (cutting off near Hatteras, stalling and dissipating heading due east) doesnt make much sense. A western track would seem to cause a capture and northwest movement in this case, not a weak stall and then eastward movement.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:06 am

Nj whatcha think bout thst doozy of gfs run oy.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:14 am

I think we see td after recon tomorrow. I think it may already b it's impressive looking.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:17 am

Its closer overall than the 18z run but doesnt hook in as much. To me the GFS looks like its struggling with the setup, the ULL beforehand is a contributing factor the GFS is probably handling differently and I dont expect consistency until its out of the way. Like I said its a complex setup and a long week ahead.
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Post by NjWeatherGuy Tue Sep 27, 2016 3:20 am

0z EURO holds serve, 0z NAVGEM is just mere miles off the eastern Florida coast with a 960mb hurricane tucked in tighter than the CMC when the run cuts off at hr 180.
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Post by algae888 Tue Sep 27, 2016 4:33 am

euro did not hold serve. there are huge changes with this system. here is 500 mb
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500a_us_11
12z
2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 30 Ecmwf_z500a_us_11
00z
trough/ridge is significantly weaker.
12 z if taken out further storm has no chance to enter gulf. 00z most likely track is gulf into western fla and up the coast over land. storm probably doesn't affect us coast until sometime next weekend. all options still on the table.
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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:45 am

Don't have time to post but yikes 06z gfs!

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Post by sroc4 Tue Sep 27, 2016 6:54 am

Models still struggling with differences inside 72hrs let alone beyond. There will be three key phases to the outcome. Write up in progress.

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Post by nutleyblizzard Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:01 am

2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions - Page 30 Gfs_ms10
6Z GFS shows a worse case scenario. God help us if this were to happen.
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Post by Frank_Wx Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:12 am

What we know:

There will be a Hurricane to track.

What we don't know:

Everything.


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Post by rb924119 Tue Sep 27, 2016 7:39 am

LMAO Frank!!!

I'm not getting hyped for a couple of reasons. First, and I think Scott mentioned this a couple of days ago: The trend all Summer has been for all modeling to develop these systems in the open Atlantic or Carribean and then take them on a typical recurve course of some degree. However, the only storms that we have seen develop in these areas have been storms that came off of Africa north of about 13N (roughly, I'm going off memory). Once they developed they made a B-line to try to go visit Santa. Every other system we have seen this summer has been plagued by unfavorable conditions that did not abate, even though they were forecasted to, until the storms were very much closer to the mainland US. So far, that trend seems to be holding true with this system; although large, there is no organized center. As it continues at this latitude, it will have to start fighting off even worse conditions with climatologically desert-like air being downsloped and advected into it once it nears the northern coast of South America, which again argues for late development.

The second reason that I'm not hyped yet is because look at our modeling; up until about four days ago this cutoff for the end of the week was supposed to be embedded in a transient flow and blow through here in a day. Now it's going to completely cut off and meander for almost four days, which is something that wasn't seen. Hermine's situation was also something that was supposed to be cut and dry but again we had a cut off appear in the modeling just days before it was to be up here and heading out to sea. My point is, with the way this year has been, I would not be surprised to see this tropical system be over-modeled, again, and watch it make it all the way into the interior Carribean/Central American coastline before finally getting a chance to pop , which would limit our sensible impacts to enhanced rains along a front or eliminate them altogether. However, if it does develop, I would not be surprised to see the central trough that is currently looking to try to capture this system end up trough-splitting and have the cutoff somewhere in the southwestern or centrism US as the northern piece races away to the east and only impacts areas north of the Ohio River Valley. Not saying these runs are concerning, but in looking at the season's trends, those are my thoughts.

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Post by jmanley32 Tue Sep 27, 2016 8:04 am

Funny frank but it really is true. Like u said by weeks end hoping we know more. Rb there's always that one that can surprise. Nhc actually said it could b or already has developed. I also read that it should be able to fight off shear etc due to its size. Ur the expert though so.I respect ur anslysis. All we can do is continge to monitor. Last 2 runs were very bad on gfs.
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