2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:19 pm

The GFS is def sniffing out a wave around the 2nd of September...This one weaker but hits FL. Yes I know fantasyland, but mugs started it lol

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Wed Aug 17, 2016 6:25 pm

Can we deny two models, but gotta love the CMC with its explosiveness on so many LP systems, don't buy it as I have been told. But it is interesting its within the same 5 day time frame as the GFS, this far out no one can tell any time frame let alone if this would even get that close. There is a small trend that could very easily go poof. It also does a similar system on the 12z just a bit further south at 240.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Wed Aug 17, 2016 7:16 pm

jmanley32 wrote:We have Fiona, doesn't look to effect US at all Fish storm.  Yeah waters along coast are crazy warm, I wonder how long they will stay that way and if anything will get towards the coast, so far although we are now up to F it has been fairly uneventful and none of those predicted majors have happened yet.  Next few weeks and especailly Sept. into October I think will be interesting and potentially problematic for the east coast.  BTW check off topic threat to see what I just went through since last Friday.


lets please hope this goes out to sea and does not effect the main land next week!!! ( I am counting on you jman to keep me posted... Very Happy )
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Wed Aug 17, 2016 9:35 pm

Fiona from Shrek from the looks will move ina wnw direction from the latest guidance, may strengthen to a medium trop storm in the next 96 hrs.
Now as I said a couple of days ago there are a few waves that will be coming off of North African Continent that will all most likely make it across the MDR region and then enter into the bathtub zone. Lots at play hee but like I said we must keep a watchful eye out for any LP's off the coasts GOM, Carribean and Western Atlantic for development. Chris look what happen in the bayou if that puppy was 100 miles south over the GOM or 200 miles momma mia it would have been a major hcane peeps (200 miles) south. Crazy as it came off of Gwork is and looped over the Fla panhandle and went due west along the coast before making a right into La.
The tropics are heating up and so is Jman!!

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 8:53 am

the 00z cmc puts not one road block in front of fiona and has her make landall in nc/va as a 984mb hurricane in about 10 days. ya right...When was the last time a tropical system was that far north and just went zip towards to US on a nw direction, would be a crazy thing if she did though.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:17 am

Huh the NAVGEM also agrees that Fiona makes a trek towards the US, is this possible? Usually anything that far north of the mdr is a quick fish storm, is there steering that would prevent a fish storm or are the models just jostling around as usual? Interesting just saw the 50 ensemble map posted by RM for Euro and GEFS and they are completely different, Euro keeps Fiona much further south and west where GEFS almost do a recurve, Euro CMC NAVGEM, may be premature to discount Fiona as a possible threat way down the line. She actually does not look bad today, better looking that some systems I have seen that are stronger.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by algae888 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:43 am

Jman nhc disco...
Global models indicate that large-scale conditions should be
adequately conducive to support some additional strengthening during
the next 12 to 24 hours. However, after that time, a substantially
drier atmosphere and increasing southwesterly shear associated with
the mid-oceanic trough are expected to induce weakening, even though
sea surface temperatures will be higher. Although not shown
explicitly in the forecast, atmospheric conditions could become so
hostile that Fiona would degenerate into a remnant low later in the
forecast period as depicted in the ECMWF model. The new NHC
intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous one and the
bulk of the guidance in the short term but is a little lower after
48 hours.

Fiona has been moving west-northwestward to northwestward into a
weakness in the mid-level subtropical ridge between 40w and 50w,
and the initial motion estimate is 300/14. Fiona should maintain a
similar heading but at a reduced forward speed once it becomes a
shallower cyclone in a few days and is steered around the Atlantic
low-level subtropical ridge. The NHC track forecast has been
adjusted to the north of the previous one, mostly after 48 hours and
largely in response to a significant shift in the latest ECMWF
solution. The forecast track lies on the far eastern side of the
guidance envelope, well to the left of the multi-model consensus.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by algae888 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:55 am

I have also been hearing that the atmosphere is very dry off the African Coast due to the sahara dust. The cape verde Season doesn't look like a good one this year however any storm that forms in the Gulf the Caribbean or the southeast could become strong.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 1:02 pm

Jeeze a loo look at fantasy land 00z gfs and cmc especially gfs
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 2:19 pm

There is a new area highlighted for possible development and this appears to be the wave everyone on the tropical forums I belong to are talking about is the one shown on 12z runs that come up east coast in LR
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:01 pm

jmanley32 wrote:There is a new area highlighted for possible development and this appears to be the wave everyone on the tropical forums I belong to are talking about is the one shown on 12z runs that come up east coast in LR
I hope it comes to fruition. Its been pretty boring around here the past several months other then the occasional strong thunderstorm. Sleep
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:20 pm

Well how about the for scary fantasyland and look at that block omg...

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Thu Aug 18, 2016 3:22 pm

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Joe Snow on Thu Aug 18, 2016 11:08 pm

jmanley32 wrote:


If it was only 29° the snow would be nuts.............. But I like a good Hurricane......
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 12:05 am

We have 99l likely to be gaston within the coming week. A lot chatter in tropics community about it being somewhere around east coast around 10 days or so from now and models have been making it a monster. But short term its got low sal because fiona cleared a path and has 40 chance of development up from.only 10 midday today which is fast for nhc to up it that much. Fiona is out of the picture.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Snow88 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 1:11 am

0z GFS so close
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:34 am

It's a freaking cat 5 up to the area jesus! Ypu gotta look at the gfs high resolution sub 910 mb as it heads up and about 940ish as it passes cape cod that's just damn scary
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 6:57 am

Jesus H! People if this came any further west and even this is too close we have a event on hand that I cant even put into words. Cat 5 up coast....Yes I know its fantasy land and admin or Frank let me know if you want the images to be posted in banter or if here is okay because I know during snow you like fantasy maps posted there. The Euro shows basically nothing which is the outlier at this time, short term this looks to develop in the early week and the Name Gaston just sounds like trouble.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:05 am

Lets be within at least 10 days, so this is where to be Gaston would be and a mightly cat 5 at 904mb!



I read a lot and Fiona cut a path for this one and gave it a good environment I also read that a ridge is going to build in and make this a very close call for the east coast if not a direct impact. Some people see it going into gulf but I do not see that. I dont have my wxbell sub anymore (gonna get it back lol) but I did hear a few Euro ensembles do have a storm similar to GFS though the operational has just a wave.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:18 am

Oh and just for kicks watch the full bs 00z cmc run play fujiwara to the max.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by nutleyblizzard on Fri Aug 19, 2016 7:18 am

jmanley32 wrote:Jesus H! People if this came any further west and even this is too close we have a event on hand that I cant even put into words. Cat 5 up coast....Yes I know its fantasy land and admin or Frank let me know if you want the images to be posted in banter or if here is okay because I know during snow you like fantasy maps posted there.  The Euro shows basically nothing which is the outlier at this time, short term this looks to develop in the early week and the Name Gaston just sounds like trouble.

Christ almighty. Taken verbatim, that would be strong tropical force winds with gusts to hurricane force in and around the area, with hurricane force winds out to central and eastern LI. Heavy flooding rains to boot. The beach erosion alone would be devastating. I'm ashamed to say the inner weenie in me hopes the storm comes to reality though I'm not quite buying into this yet; not until EURO comes on board.
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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by Dunnzoo on Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:02 am

Sure hope it stays out to sea, I'll still be in Seaside Park and don't want to have to evacuate, had to do that for Irene...

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:53 am

Dunnzoo wrote:Sure hope it stays out to sea, I'll still be in Seaside Park and don't want to have to evacuate, had to do that for Irene...

Zoo dont be a



Lets have some - think about the stories you can tell of how not but once but 2x in a 5 year timeframe you had to evacuate but this time yuo never went back ...........................cause tehre was nothing to go back to!!!

There will be plenty of activity. Need the MJO - have not said this in a long time - needs to be more conducive for us right now. There will be a trough setting up the midwest so that may help bring this towards teh coast - lots of fantasy runs but there will DEFINITELY be opportunities between now and Mid September IMHO.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by amugs on Fri Aug 19, 2016 8:57 am

nutleyblizzard wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Jesus H! People if this came any further west and even this is too close we have a event on hand that I cant even put into words. Cat 5 up coast....Yes I know its fantasy land and admin or Frank let me know if you want the images to be posted in banter or if here is okay because I know during snow you like fantasy maps posted there.  The Euro shows basically nothing which is the outlier at this time, short term this looks to develop in the early week and the Name Gaston just sounds like trouble.

Christ almighty. Taken verbatim, that would be strong tropical force winds with gusts to hurricane force in and around the area, with hurricane force winds out to central and eastern LI. Heavy flooding rains to boot. The beach erosion alone would be devastating. I'm ashamed to say the inner weenie in me hopes the storm comes to reality though I'm not quite buying into this yet; not until EURO comes on board.

Euro is King of the tropics - every now and then GFS beats it but 20* parallel and south it owns (Euro that is)
Nuts - your first line made me LMAO. The peeps at the shores would


if this EVER came to fruition.

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Re: 2016 Tropical Cyclone Discussions

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Aug 19, 2016 9:28 am

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FQw57OlSFOo&feature=youtu.be

what I saw this morning...
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