March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:37 pm

UKIE 850mb closed circulation center is in great position verbatim:



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“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:38 pm

amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????



_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:49 pm

Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:52 pm

sroc4 wrote:
amugs wrote:UKIE PRECIP IS STILL VERY GOOD



15-20MM = .58 - .78" OF LIQUID = APPROX 6-  9" OF SNOW - YOU GOING TO CRY OVER THIS?????



lets get that displaced red in here lol.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:59 pm

jmanley32 wrote:Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?

No ready to go that far Jman

_________________
"Go hug a human, not a weather model"
“Optimism is great, but cautious optimism is more realistic”
WINTER 2012/2013 SNOW TOTALS 43.65"
WINTER 2013/2014 SNOW TOTALS 64.85"
WINTER 2014/2015 SNOW TOTALS 71.20"
WINTER 2015/2016 SNOW TOTALS  35.00"
WINTER 2016/2017 SNOW TOTALS 42.25"
WINTER 2017/2018 SNOW TOTALS 29.85"
Dec 09th 2.75" (prev year's first snowfall Dec 11th coating)
Dec 14th 2.5"
Dec 15th 2.8"
Dec 30th 2.0"
Jan 4th 12"
Jan 29th-30th* 7.8"
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 2:59 pm

a 6-12 event?
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:14 pm

SREFS - 3-6" FOR DARKER GREEN MOST WITH 4-8" FOR DARKER BLUE.


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:16 pm

sroc4 wrote:
jmanley32 wrote:Nice Euro came back west with amount of precip. pretty dead on with cmc. I hope so sroc, u think a Godzilla still possible?

No ready to go that far Jman

Jman this is a low probability at this time 10% is my call but a SECS to MECS range is more in line.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Scullybutcher on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:32 pm

Do we have a start time for this?
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:35 pm

Scullybutcher wrote:Do we have a start time for this?

Looks like 5PM ish for the NYC Metro area at this time

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by skinsfan1177 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:46 pm

So at this time a 3-6 event for coastal areas is a safe bet
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jimv45 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 3:55 pm

Winter Storm Watch up for Boston kind of tells you what the weather service is thinking were this storm will end up!

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:09 pm

I'm hearing the eps has a lot of West members it looks really good
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:25 pm

I will look give me 5 min Al. I will post the snow map ensembles.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:26 pm





This the start. I think we see the totals upped as we get to this time tomorrow.


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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:26 pm

low locations, nice area.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by WeatherBob on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:27 pm

Does anyone have the Euro maps to post?

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:28 pm

Does not look promising for coastal areas to me, either far west or east.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:29 pm

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:32 pm

I guess they are not that bad just much less snow, and not a whole lot around NYC area warning criteria.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:35 pm

HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-190830-
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-
EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-
EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
424 AM EDT FRI MAR 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN
CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A COASTAL STORM THAT COULD BRING AT
LEAST 6 INCHES OF SNOW TO THE TRI-STATE AREA ALONG WITH STRONG
WINDS AND MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jimv45 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:35 pm

Lee said 1-3 for most. Boy was hoping for a decent storm but we get the drill with that East move.  I got the flu and have to sit around looking at some light snow and 30s!

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:38 pm

18z NAM says "you're not getting NAMMED"... shout
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:41 pm

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:43 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:18z NAM says "you're not getting NAMMED"... shout

wow nada!
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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