March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:43 pm

SoulSingMG wrote:BERNIE RAYNO: 1-3" NYC

http://videowall.accuweather.com/detail/videos/trending-now/video/2430839568001/snowstorm-for-new-england-clos

Don't want anything then that's just a nuisance.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Fri Mar 18, 2016 4:54 pm

lee goldberg just said 1-3 for most... Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil i know we should not be ungrateful...but there seemed so much potential...just a let down... Sad Sad  i need to process and change my attitude..but right now if they are right.. I am just sad.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Vinnydula on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:07 pm

This is over the time the trend is over we will not see much!
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:27 pm

Ukie euro cmc navgem all show 6" or more. If you guys want to hug the gfs and nam that's fine not me. This storm was always 6 to 12 inches with the potential for more. 6 - 12 is still on the table and probably greater than 50%. My call is 4 to 8. Again the Goofus could be right but I'm not hanging my hat on it. A six-inch storm in late March is a Godzilla storm.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Frank_Wx on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:28 pm

This week I have been focusing a lot on the EURO because I felt strongly about what it was showing. It's clear at this point the EURO was completely overdoing the strength of the surface low. The main reason being that the southern energy itself is not that strong, the jet dynamics are weak, and most importantly there is no phase with the northern branch. The GFS has had the overall right idea with the low intensity, but not with where it tracks given the NAO and EPO states. In the end, I think we'll see a compromise between the two with a weak surface low tracking near the BM and giving our area 3-6" of snow. That's lower than the 6-12" I had in yesterday's blog but the latest trends leave me no choice. 


Here is the GFS H5 vorticities. The southern energy needs to dig into the trough. Instead it's elongated along the eastern flank. It's quite a disorganized mess. The EURO is a bit more organized and concentrated. That's why it shows a stronger low. 


The GFS scrapes the area with minimal impact. Notice the low itself is very weak. It goes to show how critical a phase is. With the northern branch remaining disjointed from the southern one, the surface low has no mechanism to undergo cyclogenesis.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by algae888 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 5:54 pm

The 18z Goofus is West and now 2 to 4 inches for the city Coastal New Jersey and Long Island the low is about 2 MB stronger trending towards the other models I think so
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 8:09 pm

Yeah we will see whatever 12z tomorrow shows will probably b the outcome.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Snow88 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:17 pm

Looks like the SREF shifted more east. Not a good start to the night. Maybe I can finally catch up on some sleep. I have been going to bed at 3am every night this week.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Snow88 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 9:42 pm

21z SREF
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:12 pm

F N A Cotton FNA!!

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Snow88 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:36 pm

Nam has cloudy skies
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Fri Mar 18, 2016 10:45 pm

I've been trying to remain somewhat positive but this storm is looking like an OTS solution, which was always a possibility.

I'll probably never trust the euro again. How can it + its ensembles be SO off within her best range, no less?!
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:01 pm

NAM at H5 looks much better but it i snot being reflected at the surface - don't know why but it isn't so positively titled but more neutral - I am going to be bold here and say the AMerican Models will catch up to teh european modals by Sat 12z suite. I am leaning ion teh triplet of teh Euro, CMC and Ukie with this - not saying a bomb - idea and solution is gone as is a mecs but a solid secs storm.

Night night all and see you in the morning.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by Snow88 on Fri Mar 18, 2016 11:46 pm

GFS is terrible. Goodnight.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by jmanley32 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 1:12 am

Cmc is backing down too coastal areas 2 to 4 eastern li 4 to 6. Blah forget this.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by RJB8525 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 1:55 am

TWC literally took even snow showers out

Not a single flake, cloudy high 39.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by SoulSingMG on Sat Mar 19, 2016 4:50 am

This storm is a non-event, guys. 

Definitely wrong thread topic, but I'd like to begin a true introspective discussion on how the euro, ukie, & CMC could all be sooooooo wrong so close to a potential event. Did this crap happen 10 years ago with models and I was too young and uneducated to know about it?? I'm sincerely and honestly asking. The model feud blows my mind lately.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by 2004blackwrx on Sat Mar 19, 2016 5:33 am

Im not much of a tracker but i listen to the analysis. Its amazing how much the models differ and far off they are until the event is about to arrive. Even when the models get to a conclusion there will be precipitation they arent usually accurate on the amounts. I have to agree as a kid watching the weather channel in the early 90s i felt most the time there was a clue of what was going to happen within a few days of the event.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by NjWeatherGuy on Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:10 am

Were dodging a bullet if you ask me, people would be caught too off guard for this, a disappointment for winter snow lovers and plow drivers but a good thing for drivers and commuters who just want to get on with life as usual. Im fine with the out to sea trend and hope for a quick rebound to warmer temps.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by sroc4 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 7:34 am

SoulSingMG wrote:I've been trying to remain somewhat positive but this storm is looking like an OTS solution, which was always a possibility.

I'll probably never trust the euro again. How can it + its ensembles be SO off within her best range, no less?!

Lets actually look at just how bad the european ensembles were.    

This is what the European ensembles individual members, slowly and steadily over about a 3 day period, trended to by Thursday, approx. 3 DAYS from game time 3days!!!.  Now lets remember an ensemble plugs the same, or similar information into its system, and in the euro's case runs it 51 times.  So when 51 individual models begin coming to the same conclusions you figure, hey we are on to something here.  In addition to that there was strong support from its own operational, as well as multiple other models.  UKIE, CMC, and GEFS all where hinting at a stronger system at or inside the BM at this time.

When I awoke on Thursday morning 00z and subsequent Thursday 12z runs on the EPS looked like this:  
00Z March 17th:

12zMarch 17th:



TO this!!!  in 24-36hrs.  I am sorry but WTF!!!!!!  I honestly do not remember this sort of consistent model mayhem all season long ever in the past.  

March 18th 12z:

March 19th 00z:



The storm IS happening.  It will end up being an all out beast...just not IMBY.  Many will likely see a few flakes; maybe enough to measure, esp coastal section.  That said  white flag unfortunately to far N and E for any of us to enjoy one last Godzilla despite the fact that the pattern was set up for one and the models teasing us with one. Again the pattern is going to produce a Godzilla just not for us.


I still find it amazing that ten days ago this potential was recognized.  It was fun to track, but to have the models do this to us again!!   Brick  upset  Tired Mad

by sroc4 on Wed Mar 09, 2016 11:55 am
I dont expect anyone to take this seriously given the current temps, BUT IF there is going to be one last chance at winter weather it will be between March 20th-25th.  Both the GEFS and the EPS are signaling at a -EPO/-AO/-NAO with a trough in the east.  Obv probabilities are low but the signal is there.  

We went from this:

" />
" />


TO THIS:





I will end on this:

To say I am frustrated is a serious understatement.  There is a good chance when all is said and done with this storm I will go quiet for some time unless of course we get teased again.  I am burnt out to say the least.  It has been an amazing ride despite the fact that this winter will go down in infamy for most.  I didn't do it before but my grade for this winter season is a solid C.  For me I cannot go any lower than that for two reasons.  In one of the strongest El Ninos ever I still ended with above average snowfall IMBY, and the blizzard of Jan 23rd/24th plain and simple.  

To my snow weenie brethren to my N and W No  No  No words cannot express.  Honestly I am sorry you all had to endure one of the worst recorded winters in history for both record warmth and record lack of snow.  I am sorry that my expectations for the NW-eners were not only not met, but not met by a long shot.  I ranted and raved with images of the glass half full all season, only to have failed you.  For that I will willingly fall on the sword.   Have a great weekend all.

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by docstox12 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:18 am

Doc, my man, trying to track Mother Nature with models designed mathematically is going to be frustrating.Mother Nature throws wicked curveballs, and what happened with this recent scenario shows that.I have many,many more years of experience watching these storms under my belt and I have seen things worse than this recent storm.Getting dry-slotted, energy transfers the works.The models predicted a big snowstorm one day out and then you see on the radar it aint' going to happen.The whole thing makes you appreciate when you get a Boxing Day come your way.

As far as us N and W folks, Doc, don't feel bad for us.It's not your responsibility to deliver snow up here, it's the climatology.You and I are just reporters of that.You can try and predict Mother Nature's snowstorms with the models, and sometimes they are right.Even this storm tomorrow WILL be a Godzilla somewhere.It seems they do predict the event but can not get the area down correctly.If you look at CP's posts you will see the HV snow totals at the bottom.We have done great the last few years and were due for a stinker.

I will toast you, Frank, Al,Mugsy, Tom, JMan and all the other crew here with a glass of red vino for all your hard work in trying your best to read the tea leaves this winter season.

PS. If you need extended rest I can work out a deal for you at the OTI Sanitarium.

Have a great weekend my good friend!!!!!


Last edited by docstox12 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:08 am; edited 1 time in total
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by weatherwatchermom on Sat Mar 19, 2016 8:24 am

docstox12 wrote:Doc, my man, trying to track Mother Nature with models designed mathematically is going to be frustrating.Mother Nature throws wicked curveballs, and what happened with this recent scenario shows that.I have many,many more years of experience watching these storms under my belt and I have seen things worse than this recent storm.Getting dry-slotted, energy transfers the works.The models predicted a big snowstorm one day out and then you see on the radar it aint' going to happen.The whole thing makes you appreciate when you get a Boxing Day come your way.

As far as us N and W folks, Doc, don't feel bad for us.It's not your responsibility to deliver snow up here, it's the climatology.You and I are just reporters of that.You can try and predict Mother Nature's snowstorms with the models, and sometimes they are right.Even this storm tomorrow WILL be a Godzilla somewhere.It seems they do predict the event but can not get the area down correctly.If you look at CP's posts you will see the HV snow totals at the bottom.We have done great the last few years and were due for a stinker.

I will toast you, Frank, Al, Tom, JMan and all the other crew here with a glass of red vino for all your hard work in trying your best to read the tea leaves this winter season.

PS. If you need extended rest I can work out a deal for you at the OTI Sanitarium.

Have a great weekend my good friend!!!!!


Doc you could not have said it any better!! I totally agree with you!!
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by docstox12 on Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:04 am

weatherwatchermom wrote:
docstox12 wrote:Doc, my man, trying to track Mother Nature with models designed mathematically is going to be frustrating.Mother Nature throws wicked curveballs, and what happened with this recent scenario shows that.I have many,many more years of experience watching these storms under my belt and I have seen things worse than this recent storm.Getting dry-slotted, energy transfers the works.The models predicted a big snowstorm one day out and then you see on the radar it aint' going to happen.The whole thing makes you appreciate when you get a Boxing Day come your way.

As far as us N and W folks, Doc, don't feel bad for us.It's not your responsibility to deliver snow up here, it's the climatology.You and I are just reporters of that.You can try and predict Mother Nature's snowstorms with the models, and sometimes they are right.Even this storm tomorrow WILL be a Godzilla somewhere.It seems they do predict the event but can not get the area down correctly.If you look at CP's posts you will see the HV snow totals at the bottom.We have done great the last few years and were due for a stinker.

I will toast you, Frank, Al, Tom, JMan and all the other crew here with a glass of red vino for all your hard work in trying your best to read the tea leaves this winter season.

PS. If you need extended rest I can work out a deal for you at the OTI Sanitarium.

Have a great weekend my good friend!!!!!


Doc you could not have said it any better!! I totally agree with you!!

Thank you, Mom.
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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by amugs on Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:28 am

Scott and Doc excellent posts.
I am done for a while me self after coming out of self imposed exile after Feb and the Morch - March torch- which will happen again the end of this week Thursday.
The models imho have been atrocious hamlndling the  pattern and systems. It is what it it is and another one has gone poof on us. Reminds me of 2014 after the Feb 14 storm we sucked dry and cold from a strong PV that squashed us. Big Momma has other plans and it is a shame because the players were on the field to produce. What a fn tease!!
All my friends at even my principal at work put in his weekly letter to the staff that he hopes the storm is insignificant so we don't have a day off and lose a day on our memorial weekend!! In my 23 years I have never seen that bad juju all around!!
NAO trended weaker, sv was faster, pna ridge broke down like.my brothers old 1985 Ford tempo, what a pice of garbage car,  and people all sere saying NOOOOO to snow.
I have learned a lot from this winter and I have let this board down in a sense by not being able to decipher the atmospheric conditions in this nino paytern.
Rb called it two days ago kudos to you my man. You saw something with your expertise that others such as me self weren't able to see.
Be good my friends and back to r & r after a tough winter season. Ciao Ciao

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Re: March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Post by nutleyblizzard on Sat Mar 19, 2016 9:45 am

Well said Mugs. Winter is like a poker hand, we were dealt a bad hand this year. Let's shuffle the cards (pattern) and hope we come up aces next winter!
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