March 20th-21st: Possible Spring Godzilla Update #2

Euro ensembles agree with operational but some are still hits but more like a 3 to 6 inch storm. Some are a bit more some are zero. Haven't counted exactly and do not have time. 12z will tell the tale.

Doc I was all set and ready for that till this bugger came into the mix. Weather been all over the place.

I posted this on my FB page so evyone can understand:

UPDATE: The first image I am providing is the a depiction of what is happening at about 18,000ft in the atmosphere. In the image you can see that I have 3 area labled. The yellow represents the energy that leads to our storm. If #1 interacts with #3 OR if #2 consolidates more with #3 then we have a big noreaster capable of producing 6-12+" of snow. Up through yesterday the model trends were leaning towards a more potent system and a track closer to the coast; however, overnight they have trended towards keeping #1 seperate from #3 and keeping #2 & #3 more strung out. Result is a weaker system and much less snow totals. Because there seemed to be such a dramitic shift in model guidance overnight I am going to hold off on making a map until after I see what models do today. The window for a bigger storm rapidly is closing, but a shift back to a stronger system is def still on the table.



Just to show you the differences the different models had in less than 24hrs here are snowfall amounts individual models put out yesterday vs today. AGAIN THESE ARE SIMPLY WHAT THE INDIVIDUAL MODELS SHOWED FROM YESTERDAY TO TODAY: NOT A FORECAST>

This doesn't surprise me at all

Old man winter is playing 1 final joke

Two phrases of the day. Late phasing and Wave Spacing (lack thereof). I will say that although the Synoptics are different everyone lowered snow totals at this time frame for the blizzard in Jan before they then needed to be rapidly increased inside 24hrs. Don't let your guard down just yet. That is all for now.

sroc4 wrote:Two phrases of the day. Late phasing and Wave Spacing (lack thereof). I will say that although the Synoptics are different everyone lowered snow totals at this time frame for the blizzard in Jan before they then needed to be rapidly increased inside 24hrs. Don't let your guard down just yet. That is all for now.

Scott,

I am fn perplexed by the latest model runs but I should.not be surprised as your sentiment rang through hallow halls of this internet site this morning.
Wave spacing the ultimate dagger for this winter and has been a recurring theme over and over again when we are to get a good storm. It doesn't allow the heights to rise due to the spacing thus bringing the storm up the coast as once progged. NAO seems to be weakening a bit, the timing. Timing has always and will always be an issue. From a Sunday night bomb to a Sunday morning weaker lp thus not allowing the phase to occur, as the great Ucker would say Just a bit outside!!
We wait to see what the 12z suite has to say but I feel the euro may have overcorrected.
If it did not and the gfs wins then we should always use the model that are dr no's with our storms. Still time as always but window is starting to closing.

You know it's near over when bernie says end result looking like gfs won.

srefs still look good though percip wise

Still S/SE of LI on SREFS

JB now thinks this will be a I-95 snowstorm since the models have shifted east. He thinks the models will go back west.

Euro control shifted the best snowfall towards NYC area. If we do see a shift west, that would most likely be the case.

Still that's a big drop off in precip for some areas from last night. Hopefully this wobbles back, still got nearly 2 1/2 days.

So coastal areas still are in good shape for snow

I think its still kinda all over the place. CMC has a major ice storm for the coast, sref has half a foot, euro has 3-6 gfs has nada and so does nam.

12z NAM is a big miss. However the LP center is not that far away but precip is all to the east, convective feedback again? I have hear that term is overly used as an excuse to be hopeful it corrects.

Said last night this thing would start the east trend! Boy with the maps that I saw at one point or another I should have around 8 feet but in reality I ended up with about 3 inches! Cold and no snow this weekend bring on spring please!

12Z nam is not a complete miss. It does show some precip late Sunday. Not alot but some.

12K HI RES NAM has 1-2" when it had nada at 6Z - model mayhem as to be expected.
The fun shall commence of model bewilderment!

4K Regular NAM has 3"plus

jimv45 wrote:Said last night this thing would start the east trend!  Boy with the maps that I saw at one point or another I should have around 8 feet but in reality I ended up with about 3 inches! Cold and no snow this weekend bring on spring please!

Jim, I said a few days ago I wouldn't get excited until models showed consensus of a benchmark track by later today. Well, I'm glad I didn't get pulled in once again. Temps are going to be in the 60's by next thursday anyway.

Yea didn't believe it one bit! Got the Darn Flu and don't need 30s and dry!

Not feeling this much now, but we will see.

12z GFS less than a inch or nothing scrapes coast. I think its a done deal if Euro comes in the same. The CMC is on its own now lol.

amugs wrote:12K HI RES NAM has 1-2" when it had nada at 6Z - model mayhem as to be expected.
The fun shall commence of model bewilderment!

4K Regular NAM has 3"plus

This isn't fun lol

It's really amazing how bad the Euro has become. It ALL started with the faux-blizzard last year.

We're still 48 hours out from the possible event but the lack of phasing showing up now on the models is what's likely gonna be the KOD for this one.

CMC has just caved as well.

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

I'm actually laughing at this it's so pathetic. Either that or break down and go stark raving mad.

SoulSingMG wrote:CMC has just caved as well.

Not surprised Frank take down the scroll, its painful... and put 60s to 70s coming to a city near you!! LOL